Comments on: It’s always Sonny in St. Petersburg http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/its-always-sonny-in-st-petersburg/ Daily fantasy baseball analysis and strategy Mon, 13 Feb 2012 01:15:17 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Peter http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/its-always-sonny-in-st-petersburg/#comment-289 Peter Sat, 13 Dec 2008 21:18:09 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=680#comment-289 NBH, Yours is a fascinating question. If you watch him pitch, it's easy to think that the high BABIP is not a fluke. His stuff is fringy, and he has a low margin for error. However, 325 innings is still a very small sample size, and there are countless instances of guys with fringy stuff maintaining a BABIP right around league average. Look at Carlos Silva: Silva gets even fewer strikeouts than Sonnanstine, but sports a career .313 BABIP (and that includes a 2008 BABIP of .347). Silva is the definition of "hittable", but his career BABIP isn't much higher than league average, and would be lower without a horrible amount of bad luck (and bad defense) in 2008. My guess would be that Sonnanstine's BABIP will regress, and his career average will hover somewhere around league average. His "true BABIP" may be a little higher than league average - like Carlos Silva - but Sonny also plays in front of an awesome defense. I expect a lot of regression in the future. NBH,

Yours is a fascinating question. If you watch him pitch, it’s easy to think that the high BABIP is not a fluke. His stuff is fringy, and he has a low margin for error. However, 325 innings is still a very small sample size, and there are countless instances of guys with fringy stuff maintaining a BABIP right around league average.

Look at Carlos Silva: Silva gets even fewer strikeouts than Sonnanstine, but sports a career .313 BABIP (and that includes a 2008 BABIP of .347). Silva is the definition of “hittable”, but his career BABIP isn’t much higher than league average, and would be lower without a horrible amount of bad luck (and bad defense) in 2008.

My guess would be that Sonnanstine’s BABIP will regress, and his career average will hover somewhere around league average. His “true BABIP” may be a little higher than league average – like Carlos Silva – but Sonny also plays in front of an awesome defense. I expect a lot of regression in the future.

]]> By: NBH http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/its-always-sonny-in-st-petersburg/#comment-286 NBH Fri, 12 Dec 2008 17:01:31 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=680#comment-286 But the same thing happened in 2007 - large FIP/ERA spread, low strand rate, high BABIP. Does he have a career 325 innings of bad luck or is it something else? But the same thing happened in 2007 – large FIP/ERA spread, low strand rate, high BABIP. Does he have a career 325 innings of bad luck or is it something else?

]]> By: Isaac http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/its-always-sonny-in-st-petersburg/#comment-171 Isaac Tue, 02 Dec 2008 18:03:00 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=680#comment-171 I love Sonnanstine. My league has K:BB as a category, so he's even more valuable. I love Sonnanstine. My league has K:BB as a category, so he’s even more valuable.

]]> By: qqqqqqqq http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/its-always-sonny-in-st-petersburg/#comment-163 qqqqqqqq Tue, 02 Dec 2008 01:48:04 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=680#comment-163 The reference to It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia made me smile. The reference to It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia made me smile.

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