Comments on: Johan Santana vs Cliff Lee

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Mon, 01 Feb 2010 21:49:38 +0000

Oh, and for what it’s worth, Razzball Point Shares (using CHONE data) is projecting Cliff Lee to be more valuable for fantasy baseball in 2010 than Johan Santana with Johan’s only advantage being in K’s:

http://razzball.com/2010-fantasy-baseball-rankings/2010-razzball-projected-point-shares-12-team-chone/

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Mon, 01 Feb 2010 21:44:36 +0000

Thoughts on Johan:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=755&position=P#pitchtype

Fastball – down 2-3 MPH from 2006.
Slider – throwing it much less (16 to 9%) and less effective (it’s been slightly below average for 2008-2009)
Changeup – Huge decrease in value from 2008 to 2009 (23.7 runs above average to 2.9 runs above average.) Perhaps the loss in fastball MPH is having an effect?

Contact Rate – Is going up particularly on balls in the strike zone.

It seems to me that Johan can still put up ace numbers but it’s doubtful he’ll ever return to his arguable ‘fantasy mvp’ years of 2004-2006.

By: joeIQ

joeIQ — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 23:57:46 +0000

The difference is Halladay developed his K rate while Johan’s is going away.

Also, I wouldn’t compare any other pitcher to Halladay.

By: joeIQ

joeIQ — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 23:56:21 +0000

It’s not the park as much as defense. With or without Beltran, The Mariners have a tremendous defense and is leagues better than the mets.

Look at Seattles team UZR last year. It is suggested it could be the best defense of all time.

I also really like Boston’s defense for next year, but that’s another story.

By: joeIQ

joeIQ — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 23:53:02 +0000

The Sea defense will cost Lee K also. So better ERA and whip, worse K. Lack of offense might give Johan a W edge.

I’d take Cliff Lee easily over Johan, but I’m not huge fans of either, and would pass on both. I’d take Beckett, Josh Johnson, and others first, or pass on big names and look for bargains.

My biggest knock on Lee over the last 2 years is that he has been exceptionally lucky on HR/FB. Knock #2 is his 4100 pitches in 2010.

I’d say Lee is probably about where he should be in the ADP(maybe a little to high), Johan wildly overrated and yes should be after Lee.

By: Phil

Phil — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 19:17:49 +0000

Yes, all pitching is somewhat unreliable but to varying degrees. Cliff Lee is, by far, the safer 5th round pick.

By: Chris

Chris — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 14:46:12 +0000

bravo.

By: Stocktopus

Stocktopus — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 01:03:54 +0000

Anyone who thinks Santana is in decline and doesn’t have the high k/9 stuff in him anymore needs to look at the first two months of last year. In his first 10 starts (out of 25 total), he had a 1.77 ERA and struck out 86 in 66 innings (11.7 K/9). After that, he had a clear drop-off starting in June, which just so happens to be when the rumors started surfacing about him playing through an injury. That streak at the beginning proves, to me at least, that he still has it in him. It’s just a matter of keeping it going over the full season and staying healthy. If he can do that, I think he’s much better than Lee. And since all pitching is unreliable, I’ll take the one with the higher upside. Besides, if this is Santana’s floor, then there’s not much risk.

By: Chris

Chris — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 17:53:31 +0000

all I said was one full healthy year of ONLY striking out 206 hitters cannot be classified as a drop-off, and last year can’t be counted because of health. april and may his strike out rate was over 11. after the start in washington when he walked six, which he’s never done in his life, it was down hill from there. so no, one year of 206 k’s does not mean that a pitcher is declining.

By: Andrew

Andrew — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 12:17:11 +0000

What are you talking about.

First of all, I said I would take Johan over Lee and I wrote a long post abut that.

Second, we’re not having not a debate about the future but about basic facts that occurred in the past. If you think Johan’s K rate has been the same with the Mets as it was with the Twins take it up with the Elias Sports Bureau not me. Everyone else in the thread and I are right about this and you are wrong.