And it makes much more sense if you emerge from just using one inning. I’d rather have a pitcher give up 1 walk per inning over 4 innings than a pitcher give up one home run over a 4 inning period.

In any case, FIP and WAR are not the quadratic formula. They are more accurate when used to analyze large pools of data. They are not meant to be 100% precise when parsed. And those stats have limitations when discussing relief pitching for sure. However, not in the way that you describe.

I see this comment a lot–”why don’t you ever question SABR stats?” What makes you think the fangraphs writers haven’t? Are you under the impression that Dave Cameron pulls formulas out of his rear end and no one ever wonders where they came from? And whoever said they were gospel? Like any other form of statistical analysis, these metrics are constantly examined and critiqued. I’m not sure why you expect that examination to be done in an article about Jose Valverde, however.

If they want to avoid signing and paying for the Valverde’s of the world, they’d do better hiring away the guys that put together the A’s bullpens.

What if a closer gives up 2 homers in a single inning?
2 Homers = 26 points
26 points = 8.66 Walks

Which closer do you want? The one that gives up 2 homers in a game or the one that gives up 8 walks? 8 walks in one inning is at least 5 runs. 2 homers in an inning might be just 2 runs.

I hope you see the problem here.

IMO, that is very short sighted and is only true If Valverde retires while wearing a Detroit uniform. Valverde could be traded again and get the equivalent of that 19th pick in return.

Two years ago (Dec. 2007), Valverde was traded to Houston for utility man Chris Burke (1st round 10th pick overall in the 2001 draft), now set-up man Juan Gutierrez , and now closer Chad Qualls (2nd round pick, 67th pick overall in the year 2000 draft). Not a bad a bad haul.

Obviously his value hasn’t went down any. Last week he was still worth $7M and a 19th draft pick, in a cash strapped market on a cash strapped team.

FIP consistently over-estimates or under-estimates ERA, even with the elite closers, such as Papelbon, Rivera, Nathan, and Soria.

FIP is dictated mostly by HR’s issued. With the small sample size that closers have, FIP is a terrible indicator for ERA or WAR value.

According to FIP a home run is worth 13 points and is the same as giving up 4.1 walks (3 points per walk). You need to serious question that before making it the basis for your argument. Giving up 4.1 walks in a game is far far worse for a closer because they’re usually just pitching one inning. 4.1 walks is 20+ pitches and impending doom, whereas a HR, is just one bad pitch and maybe just one run.

I wish you gents would question some of the sabermetrics before making them gospel. I love fangraphs and think sabermetrics has revolutionized the industry, but this FIP formula and WAR value on closers is just lacking some basic logic in my view.

Also, when you factor out signing bonus the 1st round pick is worth closer to $5M.

The Tigers’ minor league system is improving but its not good enough or deep enough to be tossing this #19 pick aside as a tax penalty for signing Valverde.

Valverde is a better pitcher than Kevin Gregg or Octavio Dotel in all likelihood…but he’s not BETTER ENOUGH to justify the extra cost and draft penalty.

The Tigers draft in 2008 was completely devoted to drafting hard-throwing college relief pitchers. You’d have to assume that one of those dozen guys would have been a “closer in waiting” soon enough….now they have Papa Grande at $7M per year plus the worth of the pick. A poor use of resources. Valverde is a good pitcher…..Dombrowski made a questionable move.