Comments on: Keep On Rollin(s)

By: VidaB

VidaB — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 00:12:00 +0000

Boy, I’d love a current analysis on Rollins. What’s with the steep drop in BB%? And the IFFB%? et.

By: Kames

Kames — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 16:43:13 +0000

Peter,
Couldn’t we conclude that the left ankle injury, back foot, made Rollins change his style? If he can’t plant that back foot, he can’t hit the long ball anymore, which made him become more of a “hitter.” The evidence of this could be the fact he had a better strike out rate, a higher LD%, and hit far less fly balls than the previous two years. Therefore, a healed back foot will allow him to plant his back foot, which will bring back the power to the 20 to 25 HR range. Unfortunately, this would probably keep his SBs at his normal range since he won’t be on base as much if he is “going for it” more.

By: Matt

Matt — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 19:21:45 +0000

He is certainly a top option at SS and in fantasy period…. No doubt.

By: Peter

Peter — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 16:46:18 +0000

I’m not saying it WILL happen, but…

Rollins “only” had an OBP of .349 this year, but that was with a batting average that was approximately 34 points below what it “should” have been.

I think it’s quite likely that both his BA and OBP rise in 2009. And if that happens, it’s not a stretch to see Rollins stealing more bases. If he attempts a steal next year as often as he did in 2008, but is on base more, it’d follow that he would attempt more steals.

By: Matt

Matt — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 16:42:49 +0000

I think 45-50 steals is more reasonable. Not as if he is gonna have a suddenly stellar OBP, it was .349 last season, marginally higher than years past, when he ‘only’ managed 40 or so steals. Don’t see a jump of nearly 20 steals based on his MARCELS projections of OBP.

By: Peter

Peter — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 15:30:00 +0000

Hi Thom,

I meant that I wouldn’t expect a sprained ankle sustained in April to sap Rollins’s power all the way through the season. Especially considering that Rollins stole 47 bases. If the ankle wasn’t fully healed, he probably wouldn’t have run that much.

By: Thom

Thom — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 15:27:41 +0000

All of that great analytical breakdown and then you throw in “although I highly doubt a spained ankle would sap a player of his power” as an aside??

Please tell me that was sarcasm. Unless you really don’t think that ankles are part of the body mechanics during a swing. I’m not saying your conclusions are wrong, I agree with your assessment of Rollins for next year. I just think that statement was out of place in the article.

By: Peter

Peter — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 19:50:06 +0000

Here’s the logic: added plate discipline means a higher OBP, which means more opportunities to steal bases.

Also, he stole 47 bases in only 137 games this year. He had played over 150 games in every season dating back to 2001 – if he steals at the same pace that he did this year but plays in 20 additional games…

By: Jim

Jim — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 17:01:19 +0000

Do you really think he can steal 50-60 bases? That seems quite optomistic to me considering what he has done in the past, even with the added plate discipline.

By: Mike Ketchen

Mike Ketchen — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 01:58:31 +0000

Great piece here, the thing my partner for our NFBC leagues have been debating for seasons is if he is better then Reyes. This is the first season in which I was leaning towards Reyes. However, I think I was strarting to swing back towards Jroll and this made it official. I know Reyes is good but Jroll will have the runs the rbis more HR same avg and usually more pop.