Kemp Taking Quality AB’s
Dodgers center fielder Matt Kemp looks like a star. A 6-2, 230 pounder with a breath-taking power/speed combo, Kemp made his major league debut back in 2006 after mashing in the upper levels of the minors (including a career .350/.403/.551 showing at AAA). Kemp was understandably raw as a 21 year-old rookie back in ’06, with a .317 wOBA and a .253/.289/.448 line in 166 PA.
In 2007, Los Angeles’ sixth-round pick in the 2003 draft posted a sweet .383 wOBA, compiling a .342/.373/.521 triple-slash in 311 PA. In retrospect, it should have been apparent that Kemp’s output was a little over his head: his BABIP was an obscene .417. Kemp is an athletic sort who has generally posted high BABIP’s in the minors and majors, but a Ted Williams-like showing when the ball is put in play isn’t something that one can depend on.
With some correction on the BABIP front (.363), Kemp’s wOBA fell to .349 (.290/.340/.459) in 657 PA during his first full season’s worth of hacks at the big league level. However, while his 2008 campaign might look mildly disappointing on the surface, Kemp made strides in terms of controlling the strike zone. His walk rate increased from 5.2% in 2007 to 7.1% in 2008, and his Outside Swing Percentage dipped from a Francoeur-like 36.4% to 31.5% (the average was 25.4% in 2008). His Isolated Power remained largely the same (.178 in ’07, .168 in ’08).
The 25 year-old has further refined his approach in 2009. His wOBA is back up to .380 (.295/.365/.496 in 156 PA), and while his BABIP is .381, there’s reason to believe that he can sustain that level of production. Kemp’s walk rate has jumped again, up to a healthy 9.7%. The increased number of free passes relates to a further drop in chasing pitches off the plate or in the dirt: Kemp’s Outside Swing Percentage of 24.6% is right around the 24.4 percent major league average this season. In addition to the patience, Kemp has a career-high .201 ISO.
It’s been fascinating to watch the diverging paths that Matt Kemp and Jeff Francoeur have taken since breaking into the majors. Both were big, tools-laden hitters with ample right-handed pop from well-regarded farm systems. Yet, one stands on the verge of stardom, while the other hacked his way back to Mississippi for a brief period last summer. Kemp is essentially the anti-Francoeur: the toolsy youngster who has added polish to his game, only getting better as time goes on.
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Looking like a star at the 7th spot in the line up. Torre HATES KEMP. I don’t agree with the first 3 guys in the dodger lineup that can’t hit homers. Move Furcal down and Hudson to 2. Kemp 3 or 4.
Agreed. Kemp needs to be moved up. I can’t believe he’s hitting behind Loney. I am somewhat fearful of what happens when Manny returns if Pierre keeps hitting…
isnt he your prototypical #5 hitter? for the record, i hate torre. nothing frustrates me more than seeing kemp stranded at 2nd with the pitcher making the 3rd out.
In a lineup with Manny, batting Kemp 7th isn’t actually a bad idea. Essentially, he acts as the clean up man for the high OBPs ahead of him. With Manny out, however, and Furcal hitting terribly, Kemp should be moved up and Furcal down. Ideally, I would like to see a position 9 hitter in this lineup.
RHP:
Martin
Pierre
Hudson (he has hit with plenty of power for the 3)
Ethier
Loney
Kemp
Blake
Pitcher
Furcal
LHP:
Martin
Pierre
Hudson
Kemp
Ethier
Loney
Blake
Pitcher
Furcal.
I really hate to wish injury on guys but when Hudson got dinged up a bit a few games ago. I wished he would be down for a bit. JT would then be forced to move Kemp up. I think Pierre should get the green light to steal on any pitch, any count. Fucal is a double play machine. How about Pierre steals 2. Furcal bunts, Pierre to 3rd.
Over a month after the last post, Kemp is still stuck at the bottom of the order. In a few interleague games he’s even batted 9th!! BEHIND Martin and Loretta. Martin has one home run as of yesterday and hasn’t shown any power of any kind all season. It’s beginning to go beyond annoying to purely ridiculous.
Kemp is probably the second best batter on the Dodgers behind Manny. The other outfielders are pretty good too, but still, it’s very apparent that Torre must have something against putting Kemp inside the top 5. Not necessarily something personal, but some kind of aversion to putting him in situations where, in reality, he would probably help the team win by bigger margins. 19AB in the 4th spot and 15AB in the 5th spot doesn’t constitute a fair trial. I can’t see how it would be the strikeouts; he’s improved in that area and his positive contributions would far outweigh the occasional K’s. The 7th through 9th spots of any NL batting order should be reserved for the pitcher and any rookies or inferior/slumping hitters for obvious reasons: less pressure and fewer at-bats to hurt the team.
If 2009 in LA continues this way, could Kemp go down as the greatest bottom-third-of-the-order hitter ever?