Kenley Jansen, Top Non-Closer to Own?
At the time this was written, MockDraftCentral.com had completed 475 mixed league drafts and Kenley Jansen was going as the number 18 overall reliever, on average. That price may seem a bit steep for a reliever not guaranteed to close games at any point in the season, but it is a price that seems adequate when looking at Jansen’s actual production.
Aside from Jansen’s incredible numbers, which I will get to in a bit, the pitcher likely ahead of him on the closer depth chart, Javy Guerra, does not have quite the same repertoire or prestige. Guerra throws a lot of pitches, but none as effective as Jansen’s cutter, as PitchFX labels his most commonly thrown pitch. Before last season, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus ranked Jansen as the team’s number two overall prospect. It is rare that you see a reliever ranked so high in prospect rankings, but Jansen’s incredible arm and bat missing ability won Goldstein over.
| 2011 | IP | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | LOB% | BABIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenley Jansen | 53.2 | 44.0 | 11.9 | 2.85 | 1.74 | 76.2 | .297 |
| Javy Guerra | 46.2 | 19.5 | 9.2 | 2.31 | 3.30 | 83.3 | .261 |
As mentioned previously and seen above, Guerra simply does not have the same type of talent as Jansen. He was able to maintain the lower ERA in 2011, but his other numbers point to that being more of a one year anomaly rather than an annual occurrence. The much lower strikeout rate combined with only a slightly lower walk rate lead to Guerra being a much less efficient pitcher than Jansen. It is likely that, at some point, the Dodgers understand this and hand ninth inning duties over to Jansen full-time. Whether handing the better reliever the closer role is the correct baseball decision is a discussion for another time.
So, with the relatively high chances that Jansen closes at some point in 2011, where does that rank him among other top non-closing relievers? Mike Adams is in a similar position, as he is the more talented pitcher at this point than Joe Nathan. However, the Rangers just handed Nathan a $14m contract over the next two years, so removing the incumbent closer will be a bit more difficult in Texas than in Los Angeles.
Other notable and comparable relievers would be David Robertson, Jonny Venters, and Sean Marshall. All three of these have stud closers in their path to the ninth inning role, and would need an injury or a freak occurrence in order to earn regular save opportunities. With Jansen, all that is needed is the type of production he has put forth throughout his professional career. Of all four, Jansen’s path to the ninth inning is much easier and much more likely.
Tyler Clippard and Sergio Romo also deserve mention, but Clippard’s extraordinary left on base rate of 95.6% and ERA-FIP split of 1.34 are serious causes for concern. With Romo, his manager’s lack of faith in him against left-handed batters and the fact that others were given save opportunities before him during Brian Wilson’s DL residence make him a lesser quality roto reliever than Jansen.
Grant Balfour is another distinguished reliever in a good position. He is probably going to pitch better than Brian Fuentes, but he suffers from similar problems as Clippard (High LOB% and big ERA-FIP split in ’11), though the likelihood of him getting save opportunities is higher. With that said, he is still a far cry away from the type of talent that Jansen is. Addison Reed has a solid chance to earn save opportunities, and while he is also a rare talent, Jansen has a bit more experience against Major League hitters. Reed may end up being as productive or more productive than Jansen, but he is a bit of a riskier bet with minimal professional experience.
Even if you assume no closers get injured and Jansen is never given a role as a ninth-inning man, he still would likely be the best middle reliever to draft in standard leagues. With a minimum of 70 innings pitched, only Craig Kimbrel’s career rate of 15.39 strikeouts per nine innings is better than Jansen’s 15.29 mark, ever. While that is an extremely small sample to compare to the rest of the pitchers to ever play the game, no other pitcher has a K/9 rate higher than 12.17 for their career. Jansen’s lowest K/9 rate at any level is 14.53 in high-A ball. The strikeouts are here to stay, and you would be wise to grab Jansen before one of your opponents reaps the benefits of owning the best non-closer in fantasy.
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The second coming of Carlos Marmol? As long as Kenley can harness his control, he’ll be spectacular. If he has a lapse of strike-zone judgement as he did in the first part of last season, he will give his owners much heartburn. Now pass me the Maalox.
No mention of Jansen’s DL stints (shoulder, irregular heartbeat)?
Guerra may not be good but seems to me there is a decent chance he holds on to being the closer since 1) he isn’t terrible) 2) Dodger Stadium is a good pitcher’s park 3) Manager’s prefer “experience” in that role.
Gun to my head, I’m not sure I would rather have Jansen. Am I nuts?
Not in my opinion. I watched my lowly Houston Astros light up Jansen like a Christmas tree last year. His pitches all went straight down the plate – hardly any movement at all. I don’t understand the hype – I think he still has a lot of developing to do.
Don’t fall victim to the eye test from short sample sizes.
He started very slow last season.
like the other Ben said, your one game sample size doesn’t say much about Jansen’s abilities. if you don’t understand the hype, check his k/9 rate.
If I’m drafting one, I’m targeting the other also. Good strategy would be drafting Jensen and then Guerra, and using Guerra as a trade chip for a team in need of a closer.
As for the Marmol comparisons, they are plausible. He could end up just like him, or he could end up just like Kimbrel. Even Kimbrel could still end up like Marmol, in reality. The high-K guys end up giving you starter level production when combined with another reliever though, and having one non-closing reliever is usually a good idea — depending on the format.
Injuries wise, they are a cause for concern but that’s the case for many relievers, especially those like Venters who have loaded up the innings over the past few years.
Bookmarked for future reference when my league that counts Holds drafts
I’m in one of those leagues, and Venters was likely my best draft pick, considering where I got him.
“A’s assistant GM David Forst said Wednesday that Grant Balfour, Fautino De Los Santos and Joey Devine will compete for the team’s opening at closer”
I’ve also read other places that Balfour will likely begin as closer…
http://rotosaurus.blogspot.com/2011/01/oakland-athletics-2011-mlb-depth-chart.html
Mattingly took forever to have faith in him. He used Jansen in middle relief/mopup time, then had him attempt to close a game and Jansen blew it. He got sent to the minors, then back up for middle relief, then the heartbeat thing. It wasn’t until the end of the year that Jansen was consistently effective AND Mattingly seemed to trust him. I was a Jansen owner last year and it was very frustrating…I got the impression that others in the organization are higher on Jansen than Mattingly is.
Don’t sleep on Greg Holland. KC has to trade Soria (if they are smart) and Holland took a huge leap last year especially with his control.
Holland is one of my favorite set-up types at this point. Would like to see him do it for more than one season, but he was very impressive in ’11.
I just think KC is a few years away and HAS to trade Soria. Why pay the money for him when Holland can do the job and you could get prospects for Soria.
speaking of k/ip non-closers, what is the read on the nats closer situation?
it seems like there is always a rumor that the nats are looking to deal drew storen…even if you regress clippard’s ERA back to his FIP, is he a sneaky good late round lotto ticket?
by which i mean, i completely understand the author’s point re: the 1.34 ERA/FIP split, but at the same time, the 3.20 FIP with a K/9 >10 is going to play well regardless of some regression, right?
Clippard is certainly a viable reliever to pick up, even more so if you count holds. I would be surprised if Storen is dealt right now, but Clippard is solid and only an injury away from being a very solid closer. He’ll give you good numbers all around, just not quite as good as Jansen likely will.
He won me my fantasy league with his final day of the season save.
Look at his September and tell me he’s not going to get another shot at closing soon:
13.2 IP (41 outs), 32 Ks (!!!), 3 BB, 7 hits, 2 runs.
His 2nd-half overall was insanely good.
23 IP, 8 hits, 6 BB, 2 runs, 48 Ks(18.8 K/9)
I’d stay away from Venters only because I think his arm will fall off at some point in 2012. The Fredi Gonzalez factor and a lot of young arms in the rotation should do him in.
Vinnie Pestano should have gotten a mention by now, given his own numbers and the erosion of Chris Perez’s.