Kershaw’s Quest For Third Pitch
Without question, Dodgers southpaw Clayton Kershaw is one of the most talented pitchers on the planet. A 6-3, 220 pounder who’s just barely old enough to legally kick back a beer after a game, Kershaw possesses a searing mid-90′s fastball and a hook that earned the “Public Enemy Number One” designation from Vin Scully.
While Kershaw has as much long-term potential as any starter in the game, it can be a little frustrating to watch him endure growing pains at the major league level. Take his last outing: a 2.2 inning, four-walk stinker versus the Padres. In his next start, Kershaw could punch out a baker’s dozen (as he did against the Giants on April 15th), or he could fail to make it out of the third inning.
In 107 innings last season, Kershaw posted rates of 8.36 K/9 and 4.35 BB/9 while compiling a 4.08 FIP. Authoring a 4.04 FIP in 2009, he’s whiffing a few more batters (8.72 K/9) but his control has taken another step backward. Kershaw is issuing an unacceptable 5.48 walks per nine innings. That’s the highest rate of free passes among all qualified starting pitchers. Not surprisingly, Kershaw is averaging about 5.1 innings per start, while tossing 4.3 pitches per plate appearance (4.0 in 2008). No pitcher in the N.L. has thrown more pitches per PA (well, unless you wanna count Cody Ross’ one-inning stint for the Fish).
At the moment, Kershaw’s biggest obstacle to acedom would appear to be his lack of a third pitch. Clayton’s 93.6 MPH fastball (thrown about 75 percent of the time) has been a quality offering, with a run value of +0.94 runs per 100 pitches that ranks in the top 20 among starters. That vaunted slooow curve (utilized about 18 percent) is also biting, at +1.58 (just outside the top 20). His changeup, though? Clayton has pulled the string just over 6 percent of the time. While keeping in mind that the sample is small, the change has a sordid run value of -5.42 per 100 pitches (5th worst among starters).
The changeup is typically thrown to opposite-handed batters, so Kershaw hasn’t really had a pitch that moves away from righties. In 2009, Clayton has eviscerated left-handed hitters with his heat and yellow hammer to the tune of a .149/.255/.213 line in 56 PA. He has a 3.17 K/BB ratio versus southpaw batters. While right-handers aren’t exactly lighting him up, they are getting on base at a far higher clip (.237/.355/.390, 1.3 K/BB ratio in 216 PA).
Take that June 10th start against San Diego. The Padres had six guys batting from the right side, none of them especially imposing (Eckstein, Kouzmanoff, Headley, E. Gonzalez, Blanco, J. Wilson). Here’s how Kershaw pitched to a lineup that wouldn’t stand out at Portland (graph courtesy of Brooks Baseball):
The green dots are fastballs, the pink ones are curveballs and the lonely yellow dot is a changeup.
There’s just one changeup. Mostly, Kershaw flipped curveballs up there that he couldn’t locate, or attempted to bust righties on the inner half of the plate with fastballs. He gave up doubles to Kouzmanoff and Headley, and somehow managed to walk Blanco (career .289 OBP) once and Wilson (.279) twice!
That’s an extreme case, but it does serve to highlight the next big step for Kershaw. He’s going to have to find a way to tighten the strike zone against righty batters to graduate from talented-but-inconsistent prodigy to full-fledged ace.
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This perfectly mirrors a conversation I was having roughly 10 days ago. But my conversation didn’t have awesome graphs or anything, so, thanks for this.
Kershaw is sometimes referred to as having the potential to be another Sandy Koufax. If he is another Koufax it could be years before he finally develops good control. Koufax first pitched in the majors at 19 and walked 28 batters in 41 2/3 innings. Over his 1st 5 years he walked 305 batters in 516 2/3 innings. In his 6th year he walked 100 batters in 175 innings and was 8-13. It wasn’t until his 7th year that he developed anything approaching acceptable control, walking 96 batters in 225 2/3 innings with 18 wins and an ERA of 3.52. Finally, in ’62, at age 27 and in his 8th year he had become the dominating pitcher he was to remain for the rest of his career.
What lefty who struggles with control hasn’t been compared to Koufax??
nice comment dbuff
Does Jonathan Sanchez not qualify? His 6.71 BB/9 is more than Kevin Slowey’s walk rate and Clayton Kershaw’s walk rate combined…
The June 10th start is a bit misleading. Kershaw got absolutely murdered by the strike zone the umpire was employing. Take a look at the Gameday of that performance to see how many called strike 3s he should have had.
when kershaw threw the near no hitter versus the marlins.. brad ausmus was catching and kershaw used his change up many times and it was really effective.. when russell martin catches.. he does use his change up as often which is a huge mistake because its hard to live off two pitches… so some of the blame has to go to russell martin for not calling for more change ups
when martin catches kershaw DOESNT use the change as much
How hard is it to develop a 2-seam FB or cut FB? No sarcasm here, just curious.
I have an idea let’s make a topic on Price
How Price’s maturity is behind Kershaw’s.
How Price’s FIP is higher than Kershaw’s
How Price went less innings in his first 4 starts at 23 than Kershaw did at 20.
How Price instantly pitches around a hitter the moment the hitter makes contact
How Price is more hittable when he throws the ball for a strike when a batter swings
How Price throws only a fastball and breaking ball 90% of the time.
But no people want to believe Price is the better prospect and they won’t accept Price’s struggles are worse than Kershaw’s thus they look at Kershaw’s faults at a 21 year old over Price’s struggles of almost a 24 year old.
Kershaw will end up better and people are gonna have to accept it eventually. Kershaw has better stuff, is more mature and is younger than Price.
There is a case for that argument. Whichever one of the two develops better fastball command will be the more dominant major league starter. Stats shouldn’t be used as your main argument though. Price pitches in the AL East, Kershaw in the NL West. Huge difference in offensive talent between the competition they face. And it’s definitely too early to tell which one will be the better pitcher.
Agreed here. Both of amazing talents, but I think Price has to face tougher comp night in and night out. I just prefer his fastball/slider combo, I think he will be a bit better at keeping the ball in the park and on the ground. I’d like to think his GB rate will be higher than Kershaw.
Dodger Stadium has never been known to hurt a pitchers overall stats either.
While Kershaw does need to develop his changeup (and it appears he was throwing a cutter/slider in his last outing), his main problem has been consistently repeating his mechanics. His top half and bottom half often work independent of one another and it leads him to missing up and away or down and in (vs righties). It also appears that he’s sometimes late in breaking his hands or cocking his arm, leading him to rush his delivery, which also lends to bouts of wildness.
Another thing I’ve noticed is Joe Torre’s insistence that he pitch inside to righties. I remember the game in Houston where it seemed he was starting every righty with an inside fastball. Sure enough, Carlos Lee came up, opened up and launched a shot off the facade over the short porch in LF. Less inside fastballs, more changeups away please!
There are actually three changeups
(-.9, 1.4)
(0.0, 1.7)
(0.7, 4.6)
Giving up a HR to C Lee is something that no LHP should really apologize for. I agree you don’t feed C Lee inside pitches, unless they are way, way in, but C Lee has a way to pull pitches off the plate. It is not easy.