Comments on: Lewis Launches in San Fran

By: Wilma Demps

Wilma Demps — Sat, 23 Jan 2010 23:46:50 +0000

Howdy, I found your great site on Yahoo. Bunion problems are close to my heart.

By: Jeremiah

Jeremiah — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 11:18:30 +0000

Lewis has been identified as the #3 hitter in SF for this season. He’s going to have more RBI opportunities than last year, and a green light more often. He averaged 4.23 pitches per plate appearance last year (fourth in the NL), but that also led to him hitting with two strikes quite a bit (124 K’s). I think he’s likely to cut down on that K rate since he can now go after his pitch.

His spring stats so far suggest he’s capable of, assuming he continues to improve health wise – still isn’t playing on consecutive days, a season that most would be very happy with.

His HR total probably won’t ever get above 15 or so since he plays half his games at AT&T, but it also helps his other power numbers. His steals total might not increase by much since he’ll have Renteria in front of him part of the time. That being said his bunion was on his right foot and that is the foot you drive off of when taking off to steal. Not to mention, it also affected his ability to really drive the ball towards the end of last year. I would expect a season of .280-30-12-15-90-75-25 given 500-550 at bats.

By: Jim

Jim — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 04:04:23 +0000

btw, for some context, it’s a 20 team league with LF/CF/RF, and I have the 16th pick to start out with in our draft (200 players already off the board because of keepers).

By: Jim

Jim — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 04:00:16 +0000

I am looking for a steals guy in LF who won’t kill the other categories completely. How many bases do you think Lewis is capable of stealing? Is it likely that he will stay around 20, or is a total of 25-30 possible?

By: NBH

NBH — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 22:00:47 +0000

I know this isn’t a statistics oriented post, but Lewis played almost all of last year w/ a painful foot (and had surgery in the offseason). He took days off here and there in 2008, but still managed 21 steals (75% success rate) with a busted “wheel.” I anticipate 25+ steals next year, especially if he stays in the leadoff spot.

By: Aaron B.

Aaron B. — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 20:48:32 +0000

Alright, thanks for your help!

By: David Golebiewski

David Golebiewski — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 12:37:48 +0000

Aaron,

That’s a great question. While I’m not certain of the conversion, I do know that Baseball Prospectus has a similar system, Equivalent Base Runs, which accounts for essentially the same things and is park-adjusted as well:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=EQBRR

According to BP’s Equivalent Base Runs, Lewis added about 5 runs (or half a win) on the base paths. That seems about right.

By: Aaron B.

Aaron B. — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 05:30:52 +0000

Interesting piece.

I was wondering if you knew the conversion from BJO’s Base Running Net Gain to runs. Does the .22 run value (I think that’s the stolen base run value) apply to the other ways of gaining bases?