Steve Barber, Dave Boswell, Jim Bouton, Ron Bryant, Wally Bunker, Steve Busby, Dean Chance, Sammy Ellis, Chuck Estrada, Wayne Garland, Gary Gentry, Don Gullett, Denny McLain, Jim Merritt, Andy Messersmith, Gary Nolan, J.R. Richard, Wayne Simpson and many, many others.

Jim Bouton won 39 games as a 24-25 year old. He won 16 the rest of his career. Don Gullett pitched 218 innings as a 20-year old. He didn’t make it past age 27. Denny McLain hurled 661 innings over two seasons as a 24-25 year old. He was washed up at 28. Ron Bryant pitched 270 innings as a 25-year old. He was out of baseball two years later. All of these pitchers had great success early and then flamed out from overuse.

We remember the survivors but the ones who couldn’t handle the workload are important to consider, too.

http://archive.fantasybaseballgenerals.com/2008/09/tim-lincecum-and-pitch-counts.html

Also, O’leary has often been a critic of the inverted L, but it doesn’t appear as bad as the inverted W or the L and W together in a windup. I’m not the mechanical guy that O’leary is and I respect his work, but Lincecum’s L is not as pronounced as others and as O’leary says himself, it is not a clear indication that he will have problems. It would appear that the inverted W is much more dangerous for the longterm health of a pitcher.

I prepared my response in detail to Patrick DiCaprio over at the The Generals site, but it is no more, so I can’t pull it up. : (
So, you know where I stand on the issue. I think pitchcounts have their place, but they need to be applied to the individual based on performance. Some guys get put more strain on their arm, elbow, shoulder, etc., or don’t have the stamina to safely throw 120 pitches on a regular basis. Lincecum has always thrown high pitch counts and as somebody else said, doesn’t ice and has never missed a start due to injury. EVER.

I too wish that Boochey didn’t ride him like a rented mule, but I also think the kid is special. He just does things differently. Last season after a 120+ outing the kid comes to the edge of the dugout and frickin does one arm pullups with his pitching arm. It was ridiculous. Most guys bundle up in their little jackets or throw the ice on and look completely gassed and this kid is doing pullups on the dugout. The coaching staff looked like they wanted to slap him, either out of jeolousy or to tell him not to do that kind of stuff.

This is going to be a hot topic for years to come and isn’t going away anytime soon. I’m much more concerned with Justin Verlander, who has shown signs of fatigue in the second half each season, has always been on pitch counts, and something was just wrong last year. He has also been high up the PAP chart each season.

The author obviously feels that, in the long term, the little guy will probabbly run into to arm trouble. But for next season, all bets are on that he remains at the top of his game. He will not go the way of Mark Prior, at least not this season.