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	<title>Comments on: Fantasy Links &#8212; 11/17/2009</title>
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	<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/links-11172009/</link>
	<description>Daily fantasy baseball analysis and strategy</description>
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		<title>By: Ray</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/links-11172009/#comment-6961</link>
		<dc:creator>Ray</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Nov 2009 03:24:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=5480#comment-6961</guid>
		<description>RM-I have done the same analysis for the OFers that you mentioned, and then some, and here are the results vs Kemp in 2009:

The following 5x5 category OFers hit more HRs than Kemp: Werth, Braun, Granderson, Zobrist, Bay and Cruz. The biggest difference-Werth hit 10 more HRs than Kemp.
The following 5x5 category OFers scored more runs than Kemp: Werth, Bay, Braun and Damon.The biggest difference- Braun scored 16 more runs than Kemp.
The following 5x5 category OFers had more RBI: Bay, Braun and Holliday. The biggest difference-Bay had 18 more RBI than Kemp.
The following 5x5 category OFers had more SBs than Kemp: None, in fact no one was within 13 SBs from Kemp
The following 5x5 category OFers hit for a higher AVG than Kemp: Braun, Upton, Holliday, Choo and Hunter. The biggest difference-Braun hit .320 to Kemp&#039;s .297 for a .023 diff.

I see Kemp closing the gap in the power and runs categories in 2010 batting in the middle of the LAD lineup, rather than 6th-8th like he did in 2009.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>RM-I have done the same analysis for the OFers that you mentioned, and then some, and here are the results vs Kemp in 2009:</p>
<p>The following 5&#215;5 category OFers hit more HRs than Kemp: Werth, Braun, Granderson, Zobrist, Bay and Cruz. The biggest difference-Werth hit 10 more HRs than Kemp.<br />
The following 5&#215;5 category OFers scored more runs than Kemp: Werth, Bay, Braun and Damon.The biggest difference- Braun scored 16 more runs than Kemp.<br />
The following 5&#215;5 category OFers had more RBI: Bay, Braun and Holliday. The biggest difference-Bay had 18 more RBI than Kemp.<br />
The following 5&#215;5 category OFers had more SBs than Kemp: None, in fact no one was within 13 SBs from Kemp<br />
The following 5&#215;5 category OFers hit for a higher AVG than Kemp: Braun, Upton, Holliday, Choo and Hunter. The biggest difference-Braun hit .320 to Kemp&#8217;s .297 for a .023 diff.</p>
<p>I see Kemp closing the gap in the power and runs categories in 2010 batting in the middle of the LAD lineup, rather than 6th-8th like he did in 2009.</p>
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		<title>By: MDS</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/links-11172009/#comment-6880</link>
		<dc:creator>MDS</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Nov 2009 22:01:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=5480#comment-6880</guid>
		<description>lol @ kemp #2 and OF positional scarcity</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>lol @ kemp #2 and OF positional scarcity</p>
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		<title>By: Freshhops</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/links-11172009/#comment-6879</link>
		<dc:creator>Freshhops</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Nov 2009 20:58:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=5480#comment-6879</guid>
		<description>The reason you&#039;ve taken heat for that is because it is completely insane. Completely. totally. off the f-ing rocker. NUTS. No offense, because you&#039;ve got balls and I respect that. But I think you&#039;re crazy.

Option A is an inner circle hall of famer, probably the best right handed hitter ever, will probably out-hit ever single major league baseball player next season and to boot will lead probably his position in stolen bases.

Option B is compares favorably with the other best players at his position. He&#039;s a 30-30 guy who might hit .300, which is great.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The reason you&#8217;ve taken heat for that is because it is completely insane. Completely. totally. off the f-ing rocker. NUTS. No offense, because you&#8217;ve got balls and I respect that. But I think you&#8217;re crazy.</p>
<p>Option A is an inner circle hall of famer, probably the best right handed hitter ever, will probably out-hit ever single major league baseball player next season and to boot will lead probably his position in stolen bases.</p>
<p>Option B is compares favorably with the other best players at his position. He&#8217;s a 30-30 guy who might hit .300, which is great.</p>
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		<title>By: R M</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/links-11172009/#comment-6870</link>
		<dc:creator>R M</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Nov 2009 01:26:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=5480#comment-6870</guid>
		<description>I guess I should have seen the fact that Utley was in his post.  Just ignore this:

&quot;The first is Ryan Braun, the second is Matt Kemp, and the third is Chase Utley. Why are 2 outfielders who have comparable lines to a second baseman being talked about in the first 2-6 picks while Utley is not in the conversation? Is it the youth/upside craze?&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I guess I should have seen the fact that Utley was in his post.  Just ignore this:</p>
<p>&#8220;The first is Ryan Braun, the second is Matt Kemp, and the third is Chase Utley. Why are 2 outfielders who have comparable lines to a second baseman being talked about in the first 2-6 picks while Utley is not in the conversation? Is it the youth/upside craze?&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: R M</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/links-11172009/#comment-6869</link>
		<dc:creator>R M</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Nov 2009 01:11:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=5480#comment-6869</guid>
		<description>Just before I keep arguing, I am not saying I am right, I am just making an argument....all in good fun.

Maybe 9 second basemen hit 20+ homeruns, but homeruns are not the only stat in 5x5.

These are the other 9 second basemen who hit 20+ lined up against Utley (numbers are in comparison to Utley&#039;s line):

Runs:
Kinsler (-11)
Phillips (-34)
Uggla (-28)
Cano (-9)
DeRosa (-34)
J Lopez (-43)
Stewart (-38)
Hill (-9)
Zobrist (-21)

Homeruns:
Kinsler (0)
Phillips (-11)
Uggla (0)
Cano (-6)
DeRosa (-8)
Lopez (-6)
Stewart (-6)
Hill (+5)
Zobrist (+4)

RBI:
Kinsler (-7)
Phillips (+5)
Uggla (-3)
Cano (-8)
DeRosa (-15)
Lopez (+3)
Stewart (-23)
Hill (+13)
Zobrist (-2)

SB:
Kinsler (+8)
Phillips: (+2)
Uggla (-21)
Cano (-18)
DeRosa (-20)
Lopez (-20)
Stewart (-16)
Hill (-17)
Zobrist (-6)

AVG:
Kinsler (-.029)
Phillips (-.006)
Uggla (-.039
Cano (+.038)
DeRosa (-.032)
Lopez (-.010)
Stewart (-.055)
Hill (+.004)
Zobrist (+.015)


As you can see, there is no player who came close to Utley and any more than 4 of 5 categories.  Many players who outperformed him are due for some regression, while his production should remain constant (and his average might even go up a little).  The only player who has a chance at matching Utley is Kinsler.  That leaves 2 people capable of 30-20 with good production in other categories at 2B in 2010, with Zobrist close on the second tier.  There is practically no upside at the position for numbers of that caliber.  For Outfielders you have Kemp, Justin Upton, Grady Sizemore, Ryan Braun, Curtis Granderson, Matt Holliday, Hunter Pence, Jayson Werth, Carlos Gonzalez, Nelson Cruz, and Jay Bruce all capable of producing significantly in all 5 categories, and then on top of that you have a class of world-class speedsters, as well as a bunch of other players who contribute greatly in 3 or 4 categories.  If you wait on an Utley or a Kinsler and draft a Kemp instead, you could wind up with a guy like Cano or Lopez in a bad BABIP year or praying that Ian Stewart will bring his average up, whereas you could easily get Utley or Kinsler in the first round and still have any number of outfielders capable of well out-producing the second tier of 2B&#039;s.  With 5 outfielders outfielders obviously have to be picked early and often, but I think forgoing Utley for an outfielder is a mistake, because you are passing up on being guaranteed, barring injury, to be best or 2nd best in your league at 2B.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just before I keep arguing, I am not saying I am right, I am just making an argument&#8230;.all in good fun.</p>
<p>Maybe 9 second basemen hit 20+ homeruns, but homeruns are not the only stat in 5&#215;5.</p>
<p>These are the other 9 second basemen who hit 20+ lined up against Utley (numbers are in comparison to Utley&#8217;s line):</p>
<p>Runs:<br />
Kinsler (-11)<br />
Phillips (-34)<br />
Uggla (-28)<br />
Cano (-9)<br />
DeRosa (-34)<br />
J Lopez (-43)<br />
Stewart (-38)<br />
Hill (-9)<br />
Zobrist (-21)</p>
<p>Homeruns:<br />
Kinsler (0)<br />
Phillips (-11)<br />
Uggla (0)<br />
Cano (-6)<br />
DeRosa (-8)<br />
Lopez (-6)<br />
Stewart (-6)<br />
Hill (+5)<br />
Zobrist (+4)</p>
<p>RBI:<br />
Kinsler (-7)<br />
Phillips (+5)<br />
Uggla (-3)<br />
Cano (-8)<br />
DeRosa (-15)<br />
Lopez (+3)<br />
Stewart (-23)<br />
Hill (+13)<br />
Zobrist (-2)</p>
<p>SB:<br />
Kinsler (+8)<br />
Phillips: (+2)<br />
Uggla (-21)<br />
Cano (-18)<br />
DeRosa (-20)<br />
Lopez (-20)<br />
Stewart (-16)<br />
Hill (-17)<br />
Zobrist (-6)</p>
<p>AVG:<br />
Kinsler (-.029)<br />
Phillips (-.006)<br />
Uggla (-.039<br />
Cano (+.038)<br />
DeRosa (-.032)<br />
Lopez (-.010)<br />
Stewart (-.055)<br />
Hill (+.004)<br />
Zobrist (+.015)</p>
<p>As you can see, there is no player who came close to Utley and any more than 4 of 5 categories.  Many players who outperformed him are due for some regression, while his production should remain constant (and his average might even go up a little).  The only player who has a chance at matching Utley is Kinsler.  That leaves 2 people capable of 30-20 with good production in other categories at 2B in 2010, with Zobrist close on the second tier.  There is practically no upside at the position for numbers of that caliber.  For Outfielders you have Kemp, Justin Upton, Grady Sizemore, Ryan Braun, Curtis Granderson, Matt Holliday, Hunter Pence, Jayson Werth, Carlos Gonzalez, Nelson Cruz, and Jay Bruce all capable of producing significantly in all 5 categories, and then on top of that you have a class of world-class speedsters, as well as a bunch of other players who contribute greatly in 3 or 4 categories.  If you wait on an Utley or a Kinsler and draft a Kemp instead, you could wind up with a guy like Cano or Lopez in a bad BABIP year or praying that Ian Stewart will bring his average up, whereas you could easily get Utley or Kinsler in the first round and still have any number of outfielders capable of well out-producing the second tier of 2B&#8217;s.  With 5 outfielders outfielders obviously have to be picked early and often, but I think forgoing Utley for an outfielder is a mistake, because you are passing up on being guaranteed, barring injury, to be best or 2nd best in your league at 2B.</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: R M</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/links-11172009/#comment-6868</link>
		<dc:creator>R M</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Nov 2009 00:38:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=5480#comment-6868</guid>
		<description>I guess I should have hit the &quot;respond&quot; button.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I guess I should have hit the &#8220;respond&#8221; button.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: R M</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/links-11172009/#comment-6867</link>
		<dc:creator>R M</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Nov 2009 00:37:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=5480#comment-6867</guid>
		<description>My second post was directed at Fantasy Alpha.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My second post was directed at Fantasy Alpha.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Ray</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/links-11172009/#comment-6866</link>
		<dc:creator>Ray</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Nov 2009 22:18:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=5480#comment-6866</guid>
		<description>Utley was picked 4th in the Fake Teams mock. Why is upside a craze?? Has Kemp peaked at the young age of 25??</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Utley was picked 4th in the Fake Teams mock. Why is upside a craze?? Has Kemp peaked at the young age of 25??</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Ray</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/links-11172009/#comment-6865</link>
		<dc:creator>Ray</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Nov 2009 22:15:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=5480#comment-6865</guid>
		<description>Assuming 5-OF league. 
There were 9 second baseman that hit 20+ HRs in 2009, 4 of those hit 30+, including Hill who hit 36. Hill had more RBIs and a better AVG. Now I know Hill never hit 30, let alone 20 HRs in a season. 
Kinsler hit as many HRs and stole more bases, and his Avg was lower due to a very low BABIP of .245, well below his career avg BABIP.
Kemp is on the cusp of 30-30.....I am confident he can reach that in 2010. Kinsler was the only 30-30 guy in 2009.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Assuming 5-OF league.<br />
There were 9 second baseman that hit 20+ HRs in 2009, 4 of those hit 30+, including Hill who hit 36. Hill had more RBIs and a better AVG. Now I know Hill never hit 30, let alone 20 HRs in a season.<br />
Kinsler hit as many HRs and stole more bases, and his Avg was lower due to a very low BABIP of .245, well below his career avg BABIP.<br />
Kemp is on the cusp of 30-30&#8230;..I am confident he can reach that in 2010. Kinsler was the only 30-30 guy in 2009.</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: R M</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/links-11172009/#comment-6864</link>
		<dc:creator>R M</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Nov 2009 22:09:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=5480#comment-6864</guid>
		<description>I am assuming we are talking about 1 year leagues here....</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I am assuming we are talking about 1 year leagues here&#8230;.</p>
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