Mailbag: Josh Hamilton vs Carlos Beltran
Reader Neil S. asks:
“I have a keeper league dilemma involving chronically injured players. My offense is possibly the weakest in my head-to-head keeper league, and I was planning on keeping [Carlos] Beltran until the recent surgery (we don’t have to announce our eight keepers until early March). But Josh Hamilton is also an option for me. So my question is – is it worth taking a shot on Hamilton bouncing back, or should I take Beltran’s more reliable production numbers, even if he’s going to miss a significant chunk of the year?
I’m keeping HanRam, Texeira, and Bay (though, of course, I’m worried about the hit his numbers will take at the new field), and four of the following five pitchers: Lester, Johnson, Hamels, Cain, and Hanson. Clearly, I’m much better positioned to go forward with my pitchers than I am with my hitters.”
Neil obviously has some pretty sweet offense going on with his team already, and he’s playing in a tradition 5×5 Head-to-Head League. Hanley Ramirez, Mark Teixeira, and Jason Bay will provide some good pop, RBI totals and both Ramirez and Teixeira should hit for good batting averages. In mid-December, Fangraphs fantasy fiend Eno Sarris ranked the center-fielders and had both Beltran and Hamilton within two slots of each other. However, it was announced roughly one month later that Beltran (ADP: 89.58) had undergone another surgery on his troublesome knee, which puts his Opening Day status in doubt.
The outfielder struggled with the knee in ’09 and most of his numbers were down as a result. His batting average was up to .325, but it was aided by a .353 BABIP. At the age of 33, Beltran is no spring chicken so you have to be worried about his mobility when he returns. Previously, a lot of his value in fantasy baseball was wrapped up in his ability to provide power and speed. You have to expect that Beltran will not provide 20+ steals this year, and his ability to score 100 runs could be hampered by reduced speed, as well as a poor lineup around him. If healthy, though, he should still be able to provide 25+ homers and 100 RBI (which he’s done seven of the last nine seasons). The lineup around him, again, could hurt his ability to drive in runs, but improved seasons by Jose Reyes and David Wright could certainly help. With all that said, there are a lot of things that have to go right for Beltran to really put up impactful numbers in 2010.
Hamilton (ADP: 51) also struggled through injury problems in 2010 and his career has been littered with stays on the disabled list. The 28-year-old outfielder has received a lot of press but the truth is that he’s produced just one full outstanding offensive season in his career (2008: .385 wOBA). Unlike Beltran, his injury (pinched nerve in his back) was fixed with rest rather than surgery. In ’09, he hit a disappointing .268/.315/.426 in 336 at-bats. His line-drive rate remained strong at 21% but it’s clear that he had trouble getting around on the good fastballs on a consistent basis as his Pitch Type Value (per 100) dropped from 2.64 to 1.36. Hamilton plays in a better offensive park than Beltan, and the Ranger also has more lineup protection with the likes of Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, Nelson Cruz, and Chris Davis. With speedster Julio Borbon likely playing everyday in 2010 (along with a second-year Elvis Andrus), Hamilton should have plenty of swift-footed players to drive in.
With everything said above, I am going to advocate for Hamilton as your keeper choice. He’s younger by five years so he’s a better long-term bet. Hamilton is also expected to be 100% healthy for the start of the year, which makes him a better short-term option (as witnessed by their current ADPs). Now, I am worried about his chronic health woes (as well as his well-documented off-field issues) but you have enough “insurance” with Ramirez, Teixeira, and Bay that you can take the risk. Beltran has a more proven track record, but I think we’re going to see a serious decline in his speed numbers.
*Average Draft Position (ADP) ranking provided by Mock Draft Central.
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The one confounding variable that would really scare me about Hamilton was that there was some speculation about that his past crack-cocaine abuse has taken a very terrible toll on his body, so he may be injury prone for the rest of his career however short that may be
With that being said, on that alone, I think that Beltran may actually be lower risk to get instead of Hamilton. Otherwise in an ideal sense, I pretty much agree with everything in the article.
I am staying far, far away from Beltran in 2010 and beyond. His knee is something that could affect the rest of his career with some wondering if he’ll be able to play center effectively again.
Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus wrote a few times about Beltran’s knee late last season. Let’s just say there was very little, if any, optimism in his words.
I wonder though, which pitcher would you drop? I think it would be between Cain and Hamels, and I personally would ditch Cain.
I have another question. Does it have to come down to Hamilton and Beltran? Are there no other options? Personally, if allowed by his rules, couldn’t you keep all the pitchers and try to go OF heavy in the opening rounds? Maybe that’s just my opinion.
I could go with 5 pitchers, yes. So there is a question of whether Cain is more valuable to keep than Beltran/Hamilton. I’m thinking of keeping a hitter, though, because a) Cain’s numbers are bound to regress, maybe a lot, and there are plenty of high-upside pitchers available, and b) Beltran and Hamilton have more upside then I’m going to find in the draft, even with the big question marks.
I would keep Cain and try to find a less risky OF. Saying that Cain’s numbers are bound to regress is a pretty bold statement. He has always outperformed his peripherals suggesting that he may not fit the classic mold for predicting future performance. He’s still only 25 years and is still developing his secondary pitches while maintaining the strong fastball. He may not put up a sub 3 ERA again, but he will give you a whole lot of quality starts with strong K’s.
He’s outperformed his xFIP, which is no surprise because he pitches in a pitcher’s park. He’s always performed right alongside his FIP until last year, when his FIP was good and his ERA was great because of his BABIP and LOB%. He’s still the same pitcher he’s always been, and he’s going to go right back to an ERA in the high 3s until he moves on to a less-favorable park.
i’d definitely lean to dropping beltran and cain. beltran plays in petco east (fewer hrs) and he gains a lot of his value from steals (obviously down this upcoming year). and cain has the least upside of the pitchers IMO.
i’m in a similar position with 2 (or 3 at the expense of my 1st rounder) keepers left in the air. already got howard,kemp, kinsler. debating between hamels/kershaw/hanson and aram/hamilton/adam jones. i’d appreciate any input (12 team h2h 5×5).
PETCO East is a media created myth. Citi played fairly neutral for HR’s allowed to right-handed hitters, and regressed HR’s to lefties by under 10% in comparison to a neutral ballpark.
Show,
IMO I would keep either hamels/hanson and jones, or both pitchers. Hamels peripherals were actually strong last year and he is bound for a much better fantasy year in the coming year. Hanson is also a pitcher who will be a stud for a very long time. Hamels will be better in 2010, but not the long run so giving up Hanson is a tough move. As far as batters go, Jones is the younger player out of the 3 batters playing in a hitters park and at 24 still is getting better. ARam is old and an injury risk and Hamilton is obviously an even bigger injury risk coming into the next year. I personally would keep Hamels and Hanson if your league rules allow it, but understand the emphasis on batting and would consider Jones to be a good pick as well.
When it comes down too it. You have to equate who is more likely to be more available if you don’t keep them. There’s aplenty of pitchers with upside. So i would stick with your two choices of Beltran vs. Hamilton. Hamilton is going over 3 rds sooner. So we know that Beltran would be easier to retain via the draft. Plus we can expect his ADP to continue to drop so there may be potentially x more amount of rds to retain him than Hamilton. And if you really like him than you can grab him earlier. Something you couldn’t as easily do with Hamilton. So go Hamilton.
Who is this Eno Sarris you speak of?
So as to add value to the individual asking the question…you’re not in a good spot. Drop one of the two, and take the first pick in your draft. As was made clear (and I believe will be made so over the next two months), Beltran is a statistical liability. Will I back this up with stats? No. To suggest an off-surgery mid 30 year old CF will contribute to your fantasy team more so than a player in an offensive sober environment (ha OK semi sober environment) is, IMO, ill advised. Gamble on the rebound, not the return to top out.
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