Mailbag: Keeping Votto, Granderson, or Beckham?
In another edition of the mailbag, it’s time to answer a question from reader John R.:
I play in a 10×10 rotisserie league (all raw numbers, no averages), and have finished second for the past two years. I’ve been ok on picking keepers (drafting is another story), but this year it is down to three per team. I’m inclined to keep Braun and Kinsler as 1-2. My options for third are Votto, Granderson, or Gordon Beckham.
The three factors most affecting my thinking: 1. Kinsler hitting fifth; 2. Granderson hitting to left in New Yankee Stadium (and possibly losing ABs against LHP); 3. Beckham’s potential as a sophomore and positional flexibility.
I’d like to do the right thing this year, and any help would be greatly appreciated.
First off, can we all agree that keeping Braun and Kinsler is a certainty at this point? Yes? Good, let us move on.
Joey Votto’s numbers from last season are fabulous, but people often forget that he missed time with a stress related issue and could have put up even bigger numbers. He still hit 25 homers with a .322 batting average, adding in 84 RBI and 82 runs as well. However, a .373 BABIP is not going to happen again. Still, his average should sit above .300 in 2010, and combining that with his home run rate makes him a great first baseman.
Curtis Granderson in New Yankee Stadium is a scary thought. Plus, the lineup around him is fantastic, and should allow him to score and drive in runs at a level we’ve never seen. Granderson’s .249 batting average from 2009 is not cutting it, but neither is a .276 BABIP. He may not hit 30 homers again, but a conservative projection of 25 jacks and 20 steals with good runs and RBI numbers works for me, any day of the week.
It’s hard to know what to do with Beckham. First, he only came to the plate 430 times in the bigs last season. Second, he only had 59 minor league games under his belt, so we cannot go off of those numbers, either. Beckham’s .270 average from last season seems low, and is likely to rise due to a slightly low BABIP. Beckham did flash good power in college, so we can assume his 14 homers are also legit. He hasn’t been a huge base stealing threat in his career, but 10 steals is not out of the question at all. In the end, a quick prediction of a .280 average with 18 homers and 10 steals accounts for a good season to come.
But, which of the aforementioned three would you rather keep? I’m probably going with Joey Votto or Gordon Beckham, with Votto winning my heart in the end. Votto’s power production and high average will make him a highly covetable first baseman, of which the likes are hard to draft. Combining his numbers with Braun and Kinsler make your offense an immediate force to contend with.
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Not arguing with the keeper pick, but anybody else get the feeling that Votto’s hype is starting to run away with itself this year? De-inflate his BABIP and project his counting stats out over 550 ABs, and the guy is ~.305-100-30-100-5. In other words, nice, but also an upper-middle-class man’s Kevin Youkilis (or maybe just: Kevin Youkilis). Not that there’s anything wrong with that, and maybe he’s got some development in him besides, but if you can wait a round or three and get a Morneau, Kendry, Berkman, etc…
@Andy
I don’t know where you’ve seen Mourneau and Morales go 1-3 rounds later than Votto, they all get selected in rounds 3-4. And Berkman is clearly in a tier below those guys with a significantly lower floor at this point in his career. Votto has been a stud throughout his professional career and should have a much improved Jay Bruce protecting him all season this year. Add in that ballpark and I’ll take the over on all of those projections you just made (maybe not steals).
http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/report_adp.jsp
(shrug)
With all due respect, have you seen the OF depth this year? It’s not as deep as you would think. I think it would be easier to replace Votto than Granderson. As for Beckham, who will be a 2B this year, John R already has Kinsler at that position. At 3B, which is admittedly shallow, .280/18/10 still isn’t outstanding. Granderson could be a top 5 OF this year, and that position drops off to mediocrity after about the top ten. Considering you need three OFs…
First base is shallower this year than it has been in years. At least where top-tier talent is concerned.
yes, needs 3 OFs, but already has Braun… I’d go with Votto.
In a keeper league where you can only keep 3 players, you want to keep proven studs as your 3. You can always re-draft Beckham as he is not a top-tier stud yet, if he will ever be. Plus, he will be a 2B (losing his 3B eligibility) after this year, and you already have a 2B in Kinsler. The reason I wouldn’t take Granderson is that you already are keeping an OF in Braun and OF is the easiest position to fill. In addition to a few more SBs than Votto (and Votto has the potential to steal some bases too) there’s nothing Granderson does better than Votto other than be in a better lineup. Granderson is a .275ish hitter while Votto is a legit .300+ hitter with a little more power than Granderson (in a healthy year Votto should hit 30+ while I think 30 is Granderson’s max). Though Granderson is a very very good player, and Beckham is an upcoming star, neither are an elite talent like Votto. Keep Votto and try to redraft Grandy and Beckham if you really want them. If you don’t keep Votto it’s a guarantee that he will be taken in the 1st round, probably within the first 3 picks.
elgringo I could field a solid entire outfield after every decent 1B has been taken… OF may not be “as deep as before” but there is PLENTY of OF talent.. not so much at 1B. Plus, during the year it’s much more likely you will see OFs come up and become good players (ie CarGo, McCutchen, Bourn, Justin Upton, Adam Jones, Coghlan, Reimold, Rivera, Borbon, etc) than 1B (Morales, Butler…?) Plus, if they’re only keeping 3 keepers each in a 12 team league, then the OFs that will be on the board to start the draft will be very very good and plentiful. If you left Votto I guarantee you he will be far and away the best available 1B. Votto’s ADP is around 23 while Granderson’s is 55… think about it.
Mayhaps. I don’t think any of those OFs save CarGo and Upton have the ability to match Granderson, but you have a point. I guess I’d keep Votto, but I’d plan to get after good OFs early.
I’d be interested in what the 10 categories are but with only counting stats and no averages I’d lean towards Granderson.
The ten (actually 15) offensive categories are: R, H, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, SH, SF, SB, CS, BB, HBP, K, GIDP, SLAM. The heaviest weights are on HR and SB. Without having to worry about BA, it’s a pretty close call. I tend to think -this year, anyway- OFs are easier to find than 1B.
Thanks to Zach for the good analysis.
I guessing it is a points league then cause the question said 10×10 roto.
One more factor with Votto, looking long term he’s likely to be supplanted by Yonder Alonso at first, puttign him in left. If positional restrictions are enforced, that makes the best choice to my mind Granderson. Securing good, young up the middle talent is the name of keeper leagues. Beckham and Votto are corner infielders where good counting stats are easier to acquire. Assuming the owners in your league are smart enough to hold onto folks like Matt Kemp, Grady Sizemore (Sizeless?), Jacoby Ellsbury, and Adam Jones, who among the remaining pool of centerfielders is significantly better. Obviously, if you can fill your outfield slots irrespective of position, then Votto is the choice to my mind.
I also really like Joey Votto, and he’ll give you the best (and most guaranteed) raw numbers of the three. However, 1B and OF are very different by my evaluation. Projected at .261-90-23-63-17, Granderson is the 53rd-ranked hitter in my rankings. He will probably hit very low in the Yankees lineup, which will limit those runs scored. I have Votto 54th at .301-76-23-84-5 (though right now only at 489 AB). If he plays a full year, Votto will almost certainly be more valuable as a hitter, but the talent at 1B diminishes that, and Granderson wins out because of HR/SBs. I have Beckham at .267-57-13-59-7 if he gets 384 AB, but Granderson has higher HR/SB totals and is more of a proven commodity. He’s the one you keep.
I think most people are projecting Granderson to leadoff.
figues “redsoxtalk” would dish out what’s likely the lowest granderson projection seen in the offseason :-).
we only have speculation to go on re batting order, but best guess is girardi bats him 2nd. jeter is obviously girardi’s choice at leadoff, and he did great there last year. he’s not gonna mess with that.
at #2, who are the realistic options. Cano or Granderson. that’s it. they have identical career OBP’s. granderson’s speed, I think, will be the deciding factor.
i think the fans are right on with their granderson projection. 278-30-100-20-103. wouldn’t be surprised if the RBI’s were closer to 90 and the runs closer to 115 considering who’s batting behind him.
If this is a 10×10 points league, the weighting of the stats could put Butler ahead of Votto, and I’m guessing that when the weighting comes into play, that Granderson should be your keeper.
I’m in a similar keeper conundrum. I’m hanging on to Howard and J-Upton and my third bat will be either Votto (leaning, even though I already have a top-tier 1B) Granderson or Zimmerman (3B looks thin this year). We use traditional 5X+OPS, so Votto looks even more attractive in that light.
I’d keep Zimm in your situation
“He [Granderson] may not hit 30 homers again”
I’m not saying keep Curtis over Votto; but how will Granderson not beat 30 HRs after moving from Comerica to Yankee Stadium?
Given the weights, I’d definitely lean towards Granderson since his only negative (BA) isn’t even counted in your league. While one of Votto’s big positives is his ability to hit .300+. I feel like you could draft Adam Laroche and get similar totals to Votto when we exclude BA. Maybe even platoon him for the first half of the year when he will inevitably suck.
Not to mention Granderson hits a lot of XBH (remember that 20-20-20 season.. thats your triples crown right there). But to be fair, he does strike out a lot.
Draft wise… 1B is clouded at the top (more kept by other managers) where as OF you can still find high upside at the back end of the draft. But I’m guessing you’ll have an easier time finding a replacement close to Votto’s numbers than Grandersons given his speed/power combo.