Mailbag: Prince vs Cabrera, Pablo Sandoval
Today’s mailbag question comes courtesy of reader JD, who asks:
I am in a 10 team keeper (6) roto league with R, 2B, HR, RBI, BB, KO, SB, AVG, and OPS as the offensive categories. Right now I have both Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera as first basemen. Do have any advice on which one I should trade and which one I should keep?
I also have both Evan Longoria and Pablo Sandoval (eligible at 1st as well) at 3rd. Obviously Longoria is better now, and probably will continue to be, but how do you think Sandoval will improve? Could he reach the consistent 30 HR neighborhood this season? Depending on how you see him progressing do you think it would be smart to trade Longoria, or Sandoval? Or maybe keep them both? I can only keep 6, and Sandoval is hovering on the edge right now. The choice is among him, Chris Carpenter, Nick Markakis, Clayton Kershaw, A.J. Burnett, and Jonathan Broxton.
Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder on the same club. Nice work last year, JD. The easiest way to compare these two players is to simply displaying their numbers side-by-side and see what comes out of it.
2009 Stats
Prince – .299/.412/.602, 46 HR, 141 RBI, 35 2B, 163 wRC+
Miggy – .324/.396/.547, 34 HR, 103 RBI, 34 2B, 148 wRC+
2010 Fan Projections
Prince – .290/.396/.583, 43 HR, 135 RBI, 33 2B, 155 wRC+
Miggy – .321/.391/.558, 35 HR, 124 RBI, 37 2B, 148 wRC+
Cabrera is a superior AVG hitter, but big daddy Fielder is a far better HR hitter. It’s a hard decision to make, but I’d keep Fielder over Cabrera. Trading Miggy shouldn’t be difficult, because only one or two other owners will have a better first baseman on their squad. While keeping Prince is better if you want extra power while sacrificing some average, Miggy is a better keeper if your team needs average. Looking at the team you have assembled with the little information I have, I’d keep Prince.
Now, onto part two of JD’s question. Let’s look at what the Fan’s expect from the Kung Fu Panda next season:
2010 Fan Projection
Panda – .325/.387/.556, 26 HR, 111 RBI, 41 2B, 141 wRC+
I’d have to say I agree with the Fans at this point. Projecting 111 RBI is a bit much with the lineup he has around him, but he will likely get 90+ in 2010. Playing San Fran kills his power numbers, but 25 HR is about where he is at this stage of his career.
I would recommend keeping Sandoval around for another year and letting Burnett walk (or trade him). Burnett’s injury problems scare me, as do Carpenter’s. But unlike Carpenter, Burnett isn’t a fantasy Ace anymore when healthy. Assuming you have a CI or UTIL spot, you can play Sandoval, Longoria and Fielder everyday, and that is a solid combination to base your lineup around (along with Markakis).
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Prince seems to be improving as a hitter, so I’m optimistic he can beat a .290 avg. Wouldn’t count on it, but if the choice is ‘close’ between him and Miguel with a .290 avg…I’d say he has some upside there. Not so sure Miguel hits 40 HR (or drives in 120 with the team they’ll be fielding).
He had the best BB/K rate of his career, has decreased his O-Swing % for three years, while increasing O-Contact %. Is it the low IFFB% causing the projections to show decline? The .322 BABIP? That’s been trending up as well. Perhaps his selectivity is allowing him to get better contact on what he does swing at (fewer weak groundouts). A lot of power hitters sustain high BABIPs. His .322 doesn’t strike me as a ‘career best.’
I have the 3rd overall pick in our draft. Considering a move to 6th or 7th with one of these two in mind (although my gut says to take Kemp). It is a choice I’ve pondered extensively. Migs = safe, better avg. Prince = unproven upside, massive power. Now I’m just waiting to see the Tigers projected lineup…
Kemp beats Markakis at this point I think.
Are you seriously considering keeping sandoval over Mi Cab for the Util spot?
Sandoval might reach those projections, but he has lots of “downside”. i.e. a chance to sophomore slump, or to not have such a high babip. It’s very possible he only hits 300. He’s more likely to get worse than better. Staying the same is a best case scenerio.
He has horrible strike zone command also. It hasn’t cost him yet but it’s something to worry about.
Lose AJ and the closer, and cut loose Sandoval.
Mi Cab, Prince, Carpenter, Kershaw, Markakis, and the desperate housewife.
I had to cut part of the email to make it shorter, but it mentioned not being able to keep Cabrera and Fielder because of their rankings and the league’s keeper rules.
If I had to cut one part, it was going to be that one because I assumed people would understand it.
Obviously if you could keep both you would.
As a side node, while I am not expecting to field Sandoval next year in any leagues due to his high selection cost- his BABIP is not a valid reason to do so. In both the majors and the minors he has sustained a very solid BABIP. Much better than I would ever expect from such a big guy. I have a feeling this has something to do with either:
A. Line drives
B. Hit placement
C. Hustle (just kidding, that only works for Pete Rose)
Also, his patience has improved since hitting the majors. He’s been taking more walks than previously. While he certainly could take hits in due to low walks or bad BABIP, I don’t see those as overly likely. I’d say the big hit against him remains his lineup. For such a good hitter, he is not going to produce much R or RBI, and no steals. Last year, in a great year, he scored about 80 R and 90 RBI. With a bit of a slump, he could end up more at the 70-80 range. On the whole, I might prefer to roll the dice with Markakis unless you think you can trade him for a good return (due to the positional scarcity at 3B). Though personally, I think the chances of getting a better return for him than Markakis might be slim.