Mat Latos: Late Round Value?
The 2010 San Diego Padres don’t figure to pose much of a threat in the NL West. CHONE projects a fourth-place finish for the club, while Oliver and PECOTA have the Pad people bringing up the rear in the division. San Diego will feature a lineup filled with players such as Kyle Blanks (23 years old) Everth Cabrera (23), Chase Headley (25), Nick Hundley (26), Tony Gwynn Jr. (27) and Will Venable (27) who are trying to establish themselves as fixtures in the team’s long-term plans.
However, the most highly regarded young Padre resides in the starting rotation. Mat Latos, 22, will open the year as San Diego’s fifth starter.
A 6-6, 225 pound right-hander from Florida, Latos dropped to the 11th round of the 2006 draft despite touching the mid-nineties during his senior season in high school. Teams were concerned about his bonus demands, but the Padres took a flyer. Latos attended Broward Community College in Florida, and eventually signed with San Diego through the now-defunct draft-and-follow process for a cool $1.25 million bonus.
Making his pro debut in 2007, Latos threw 56.1 innings for Eugene of the Short-Season Northwest League. He struck out 11.82 batters per nine innings and walked 3.51, posting a 2.19 FIP and rising to third on Baseball America’s list of Padres prospects. BA liked his “potential for three plus pitches”: 92-97 MPH gas, a hard curveball and a changeup.
In 2008, Latos was sidelined with variety of ailments. According to BA, Latos lost innings with “shoulder, oblique and attitude problems.” He tossed just 56 frames across three levels (Rookie Ball, Short-Season and High-A), whiffing 11.1 per nine innings and issuing 2.1 BB/9 with a FIP around three. Latos moved up a spot to #2 on the Padres’ prospect list, as he was praised for “ridiculously good” stuff but dinged for a “flippant attitude.”
This past year, Latos pummeled High-A and Double-A hitters before reaching the big leagues in July. He was sidelined with an ankle injury early in the season, but posted rates of 9.1 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 and a sub-two FIP (aided by an extremely low HR rate) in 72.1 innings between Fort Wayne and San Antonio.
Latos made 10 starts over 50.2 innings for the Padres, with 6.93 K/9, 4.09 BB/9 and a 4.67 xFIP. He showcased 94 MPH velocity, mixing in low-80′s breaking balls and changeups.
Considering the sample size, it’s best not to slice and dice Latos’ major league numbers too much. But we did get an indication of the quality of his stuff, as his contact rate (77.9 percent) came in below the 80-81% MLB average and his 10 percent swinging strike rate was above the 8.6% MLB norm.
In the long term, there’s a lot to like with Latos. He’s very talented, and he’ll have the benefit of making his home starts in a park that decreases run scoring around 25 percent compared to a neutral venue.
As for 2010, Latos could be a nice late-round pick. CHONE and ZiPS both predict that he will be an above-average starter:
CHONE: 87 IP, 7.66 K/9, 3.52 BB/9, 0.93 HR/9, 3.98 FIP
ZiPS: 83 IP, 6.31 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, 0.76 HR/9, 4.02 FIP
The big question regarding Latos is, how often will he pitch? The Padres will keep a close eye on his workload, given that Latos hasn’t come anywhere near throwing a full major league season’s worth of innings. Considering San Diego’s likely also-ran status, as well as Latos’ long-terms promise and durability concerns, expect the righty to be handled conservatively.
Latos is a strong pick in keeper leagues, and he should be pretty good when he pitches in 2010. Just don’t draft him expecting a big innings total.
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IMO, 5th starters are now the biggest mistake around in non-keeper leagues (replacing the once-fad of keeping a second C on your small bench for depth). People are giddy when they pick up a Phil Hughes, and they cut a valuable MI reserve from their roster to do it, then they go “Darn it he won’t pitch for 2 weeks.” Well, DUH.
In an AL-only league, mind you, and a deep one (10-team), Michael Brantley was just picked up 2 days ago. Phil Hughes had been rostered the entire time. The guy who had Hughes could have had Brantley, In my book, there’s no comparison who I would have rather had.
A ten team league is a deep one? Or are you talking about how many players you roster in the league?
10-team AL-only with only 18 positions and 3 bench has, say, Aceves as the best FA pitcher (almost all starters are owned) and the Guillens (HJose and Carlos) the best-known FA hitters.
The problem is in H2H leagues where the lineup can be re-set daily and there are no innings limits, you can rotate SP’s in and out of the rotation thus giving you an effective 8, 9 or even 10 man rotation. Now, some strategies might say you don’t want to do this as it raises your ERA and WHIP, but if you can find 9 or 10 good starting pitchers, it helps you rack up W’s and K’s and helps to damp out bad innings by your relievers or even a bad start here and there.
On the other hand, it’s often difficult to predict when a position player is going to sit, so except for off days here and there, position players on the bench, well, they sit on the bench and don’t contribute a whole lot.
That’s true. And in a H2H even if your ERA and WHIP are worse in the aggregate, there’s nothing preventing you from having a lucky week or your opponent from having a rough one. In one league last year I had an ERA for the season of 4.47, and was about .500 in the category.
The main problem with Latos in a H2H is that he’s unlikely to be pitching into September. He might get you to the playoffs but he’s not participating in them. I would rather have him in as a depth play in a roto league with an innings cap so I can start him the 6-8 times that look the most favorable and bench him the rest of the way.
I couldn’t agree more. This is the same approach I use in my 12 team H2H league. Bench players stay on the bench. Starting pitchers get rotated in. I like to trade some of my pitchers, who I think will be limited come September, about half way through the season. I’m definitely keeping an eye on Latos who is still a FA in my league. In fact I’m half way tempted to drop Masterson for him right now.
Who will have a better year… Masterson or Latos??? What do you guys think?
Masterson IMO because he is a true strikeout fiend.
I’m in a deep (12 team, 9 pitchers/team, 4 bench spots) rotisserie and I’m kicking myself for not getting Latos (didn’t think anyone else would go for him). I like to keep most of my bench spots for sleeper SPs to stream them. Luckily Masterson is available and I will use him for that.
JayCee:
Usually, as the season goes along, most teams just pitch their regular 5 man rotation instead of skipping the fifth starter. That isn’t always the case at the beginning of the year when there are lots of days off built in, but I have found it to be rare for starters to be skipped for long periods of time.
A healthy 5th starter should still get 30ish starts a year. Latos won’t because his innings will probably be limited to the 140 -170 range. That being said, he’s unlikely to be skipped for 2 weeks. As long as Latos remains on waivers in my H2H league I’ll stream him into my line up, especially when he’s pitching at Petco. If he starts pitching really well, I’ll just hold on to him and I guarantee the Pads won’t skip a bunch of his starts until they decide to shut him down.