Matt Kemp’s Maturation
Los Angeles Dodgers CF Matt Kemp just turned 25 toward the end of last season, yet he’s well established as a fantasy baseball force. The 6-3, 225 pound righty batter possesses an enthralling blend of power and speed, and he enters the 2010 season with an ADP of seven, according to mockdraftcentral.com.
Kemp clocked minor league pitching, posting a combined .311/.359/.519 triple-slash. His thunderous bat (.208 ISO) and fleet feet (20+ steals in 2005 and 2006) made the 2003 6th-round pick a highly acclaimed prospect. Kemp’s plate discipline left something to be desired, as he walked in just 6.2 percent of his plate appearances. But his youth and broad base of skills gave hope that he would learn to lay off junk pitches.
Despite swinging from his heels early in his career, Kemp was a highly productive player. He posted a 93 wRC+ in limited playing time in 2006, but boosted that number to 136 in 2007. While Kemp showed plus power in ‘07 (.178 ISO), his BABIP was an astronomical .417. He also didn’t utilize his speed all that much, swiping 10 bags in 15 attempts. According to Baseball Prospectus’ Equivalent Stolen Base Runs metric, Kemp cost the Dodgers a little more than two runs with his base thievery.
Kemp’s talents were clear, but he was more raw than an uncooked Dodger Dog. Since that point, however, L.A.’s center fielder has made considerable progress in refining his game:
2007: .342/.373/.521, 136 wRC+, .178 ISO, .417 BABIP, 5.2 BB%, 10 SB/ 5 CS
2008: .290/.340/.459, 116 wRC+, .168 ISO, .363 BABIP, 7.1 BB%, 35 SB/ 11 CS
2009: .297/.352/.490, 128 wRC+, .193 ISO, .349 BABIP, 7.9 BB%, 34 SB/ 8 CS
His walk rate has climbed three straight seasons. Not coincidentally, Kemp’s outside swing percentage has gone in the opposite direction: he took a cut at 36.4% of pitches out of the zone in 2007, 31.5% in ‘08 and 28.5% this past year (the MLB average is about 25 percent).
Having learned to resist more of those pitcher’s pitches, Kemp hasn’t gotten behind in the count as much. His first-pitch strike percentage has also declined three years running: 62.1% in ‘07, 61.5% in ‘08 and 57.1% in ‘09 (58-59% MLB average).
Kemp has smoothed out some of the rough edges on the base paths as well. After stealing bags at a 67% clip in 2007, he took 35 bases with a 76% success rate in ‘08 and nabbed 34 in ‘09, coming up safe 81% of the time. His Equivalent Stolen Base Runs figure has improved from -2.17 in 2007 to +0.09 in 2008 and +1.04 in 2009.
Many players ascend to the majors with superlative scouting reports, yet can’t seem to translate those considerable skills into production at the highest level. Not Kemp. Each season, he has sharpened his strike zone while becoming more efficient on the bases. Equipped with elite tools and baseball aptitude, Kemp should only get better from here.
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Absolute lefty masher…
Got third overall pick in my 12 team 5×5 non-keeper league. I’m going with Kemp. Low injury risk, low performance risk, high upside. After Josh Hamilton in round 1 last year, limiting risk is important to me.
Odds that he out-produces Aroid, Utley, stud 1B? I’m thinking 2004 Beltran type of year is coming…
Yea, unfortunately, the league has more righties than lefties…then include the fact that all managers would never let him see a lefty in late-game, high leverage situations….and what you have is an OVERRATED PLAYER who is pretty much useless.
Overrated on D too…can’t believe he won a GG. Bad routes, athleticism makes up for it and makes the play look crazier than it actually is.
NEXT.
What a stupid comment.
NYM are you kidding me? Kemp isn’t like Ian Stewart or someone whose stats are based on his platoon splits. Kemp can hit a good RHP just as well as a great LHP. I mean, if a manager is going to take out his LHP setup man for a ROOGY or something, Kemp will still hammer him. You’re nuts.
go read the “please move matt kemp up in the lineup” thread. NYMETDAWRIGHTCHOICE is all over that. he’s a shitbag with some weird opinions on kemp.
Yeah NYM you’re nothing but an east coast hater who has probably seen a grand total of 20 at-bats in Kemps career (whenever he was playing you’re crappy Mets).
That said though, Kemp is probably someone I will never own again as his Draft Position now leaves little room for value. Last year I got him in the 3rd round (28th overall I believe) and he performed like a 1st rounder. I really think his upside is now limited and he’s just about hit his max potential. Eventually I see him adding power and losing steals, so he will still be plenty valuable, but to say he is as much of a sure thing or a better bet than Chase Utley is a bit of a reach. Remember, Kemp is an outfielder, Utley is a second baseman – WAY more value in taking Utley with the #3 overall pick (or 4 or 5 or 6 for that matter). Andrew McCutchen could potentially give you 80% of what Kemp will and you could get him 7 or 8 rounds later. Name a 2B who could give you 80% of Chase Utley in the 9th or 10th round…
Don…not that I would take Kemp over Utley, but what about….Uggla & Beckham going right around McCutchen and then there’s always Stewart going somewhere in the 11th.
i’ll be filling 2B after the 10th round, so any comparison would have to be with a similar outfielder. i know i can get a top 100 producer at 150th pick for 2B. how many OF have same expectation?
take any OF with an ADP over 120. i’ll take Kemp/Asdrubal over Utley/player x.
might be unique aspects of my league in play the more i blabber about it.
u kidding?
kemp was the 11th best producer in 5×5 last year. and 1/3 of his at bats were in front of the pitcher (or brad assmus). i listened to one game where he was sacrificed to 2nd base THREE times. how many more sb would a higher spot in the order give him? or runs? or rbi opps?
OF are overdrafted in the first third of my league draft (historically), and we need 5, versus 1-2 2B. stat-wise kemp was better last year. i like him entering his prime better than utley exiting his, especially with the trends pointed out in the post above.
my mind is made up on him as a first pick, just not sure if i should move down to 7th in the draft order. that’s about the only way i can see getting value from him…if i can land kinsler or wright in round 2.
It’s normally a good sign when BABIP goes down, but actual batting statistics go up.
And LOL @ that Mets fan. Who cares if Kemp takes weird routes, he ends up getting to the ball anyway.
Let’s look at his b-r offensive comps after age 24:
Nick Markakis (971)
Carlos Beltran (961)
Vernon Wells (960)
Enos Slaughter (955) *
Oh man, pre-2009 Markakis? Beltran? Slaughter? Eff this guy.
“take any OF with an ADP over 120. i’ll take Kemp/Asdrubal over Utley/player x.”
How about Utley/Carlos Gonzalez (CarGo’s ADP is about 125)? That will be AT LEAST on par with Kemp/Asdrubal. Sure probably more steals for your guys, but I would bet Utley/CarGo outperform Kemp/Asdrubal in every other category (especially if you’re talking 6×6 with OBP or OPS factored in). But one thing I have noticed and I think it started last year, is that 2B is now the new 3B and vice-versa. I would probably take A-Rod ahead of either Utley or Kemp. Hell i’d seriously consider taking Longoria over Kemp too.
personal forcasts for 2010 (assumes utley repeats his 09):
kemp/asdrubal: 36 hr, 190 rbi, 190 runs, 50 sb, .305 avg
utley/gonzalez: 51 hr, 175 rbi, 210 runs, 45 sb, .287 avg
call rbi/runs a wash…hard to predict anyhow.
sb and avg have to favor mk/ac…average in a big way
hr favors cu/cg in a big way
risk factor has to favor mk/ac. utley is 6 years older than kemp, and cargo hasn’t had a full season yet.
draftability has to favor mk/ac also, as kemp can be had later in first round (better 2nd round options)…and i’d give odds on any bet that asdrubal goes well after cargo.
slight amount of bonus points for asdrubal qualifying at ss and 2b. roster flexibility isn’t going to win a league, but does give options on free agents, trades, accounting for injuries, etc.
only thing i see there that favors utley/cargo is hr. and that is why many will take that combo. might depend how optimistic one is about gonzalez. i have him at 20/23/.290, which might be conservative.
Not that I don’t trust your numbers, but my numbers tell something different than that… In the order of fairness here is the comparison based on CHONE Projections for 2010:
Kemp/Asdrubal: 28 hr’s, 141 rbi’s, 167 runs, 40 steals, .301 average
Utley/CarGonzal: 43 hr’s, 161 rbi’s, 176 runs, 24 steals, .289 average
Man CHONE is freakin conservative eh? Overall its pretty close, but in today’s fantasy game (IMHO) steals are easier to acquire than HR’s. Also in the league I’ve been in for the past 5 years we count OPS as the 6th offensive category. In OPS Utley/CarGo project for .859 OPS while Kemp/Cabrera project for .823…
Not that far off, but significant enough (especially factoring in OPS). But I’m glad you brought up Cabrera, he wasn’t even on my radar until we got into this little discussion. He’s got some serious value when you factor in 2B and SS eligibility like you said…
that is something i have a hard time deciding on…how much value do you give up–overall–to favor statistical ’scarcity’?
i have a (very very simple) formula to calculate overall 5×5 value. it tracks with espn player rater for prior years, so i feel comfortable plugging projections in to see forecasted value. in that context, k&a still outperform c&c using chone. significantly enough that i’d say favoring hr would be giving up total team value.
and i don’t buy into the notion that steals are ‘easier’ to acquire. perhaps in a straight comparison of hr vs sb they are, but how much of a hit do you take elsewhere? sure, nyjer morgan was a waiver pickup last year…but those hr/rbi categories will hurt. so i’d say there are ‘cheap sb’ and ‘quality sb.’ sure, last year there was podsednik and pierre to pick up, but then you’re unbalanced and need all the more power elsewhere.
not saying c&c isn’t a viable option, i’d just prefer to take value where there’s value (in the draft) and manage toward long term results in-season. that difference in average is significant too. aren’t .300 hitters as scarce as hr hitters? there’s so much reaching for power in a draft, i’d just as soon shoot for middle of the pack there and dominate the other 4 categories. otherwise, you chase hr and struggle to move up in steals/avg/runs…at least that’s my experience.
also, to your scarcity point, it depends how much sleeper power one can identify. if i lay out a draft strategy that includes targets of jay bruce, ian stewart, and chris davis–and i expect them to combine for about 100 hr, then does kemp/asdrubal look better?
(sorry if i’ve brought too much fantasy talk to a saber site.)
Dude you are totally undervaluing Homers… Home runs directly impact 3 categories while steals count towards, well, steals.
And in real life baseball, I believe it was Billy Beane who said recently when asked about how the game is changing more towards speed and defense again and whether or not that is superior to power and OBP. Beane said something to this effect: “Give me 9 guys with a .400 OBP, 35 home-runs and bad defense and you take 9 Ichiros. I guarantee at the end of the season my team will have more wins…”
projections capture impact of hr on rbi and runs, no? how is it that jacoby ellsbury was the 4th most valuable 5×5 player on offense last year?
i’m not saying to ignore that in lieu of 45 hr potential in prince fielder. just that those hr (and their subsequent impact) should be viewed soberly.
adrian gonzalez, for example, was an early 4th rounder yet was 75th overall. sure he gets himself 40+ rbi and 40 runs with his 40hr…but if he scores 80 runs total that’s not 5 category studhood. how many extra runs does a fast guy score on? how many infield hits?
while average isn’t as predictable as power, it is tough to guage the impact of a .310 hitter vs a .280 hitter. all i’m saying is that the impact of avg and sb to overall standings can be underestimated when looking at who is/isn’t going to get you 30+ hr.
(side thought is how relying on those ‘easy to find steals’ is usually going to result in concentration risk. that one 50 sb guy goes down, and then what? lot different from a roster full of 20-20 guys.)
Obviously he didn’t mean that literally, but Beane’s basic point was that the reason speed and defense are being emphasized more in todays game is because those type of players are much easier to acquire than guys hitting 30 home runs while getting on base nearly 40% of the time…. ahem…….steroids….ahem….
this is getting complicated now, but i’ll run with your suggestion from a fantasy perspective.
i’ll take the 9 ichiros and start out with three categories in my pocket, avg, sb, runs. you, of course, win hr and rbi.
while i’m looking at last place in hr/rbi, you may finish in the middle for avg and runs…althoug a team full of sluggers will likely finish last in average.
now, who has more to manage with? i can deal speed (which i assume i have a surplus of) and land some adam dunn types to get my hr totals into middle of the pack. still probably win sb/avg/runs going away, even if i deal 6 of my 9 ichiros throughout the year.
you, on the other hand, have to compete with ALL the other teams that want that hr category. no way you can deal 6 of your 9 sluggers and still run away with hr/rbi.
not to mention, my pitching would be FAR better than yours since my 9 ichiros would have a lower composite ADP!
if this made any sense, then i’ve comunicated the essence of drafting against the tide of scarcity…not joining it.
You could pretty much write the same article on his teammate, James Loney. All the stuff about improvement in BB%, O-Swing% and F-Strike% applies to him too. Loney actually DOUBLED his BB/K ratio last year and he doesn’t seem to be getting much recognition for it.
I love Kemp but he seems like a fairly bad pick this year. You can get Holliday a round later, who will probably outproduce Kemp in everything but steals.
u don’t think kemp could wind up with better avg and runs also?
early rounds i don’t think about positions *too* much. if kemp is best 1st round and holliday best in the 2nd, i’ll draft both.
still, i hear you about 1B/3B. such a dropoff from the top tier, and those guys go so quickly…
I mean, 3rd pick? Crazy. I’d take A Rod or Wright, maybe Utley, or even a chubby 1B before Kemp.
You would take David Wright over Matt Kemp with the 3rd pick? I can understand ARoid, Utley, or even Tex, but did you even read the article? You go ahead and take Wright and let Metco zap all his power and hope that he is given the green light to steal that many bases again, and I will tell you that you could have had Gordon Beckham 7 rounds later. (I really don’t think David Wright and Gordon Beckham are equally valuable, but taking him over Kemp is crazy, IMO)
Yeah I’d take Wright before Kemp. Or Longoria.
I’d use the 3rd pick on A Rod though. Or, god willing, Han Ram or Pujols.
Like I said, I love Kemp, I drafted him in nearly all of my leagues over the last two years, but the bargain is gone. I would never use a 3rd pick on an OF. What looks better, A Rod, and Andre Ethier or Kemp and Gordon Beckham? Easy choice for me.
FWIW, I’m used to playing in OBP/OPS leagues which dings Kemp’s value a bit.
Possible that Kemp takes a step backward? If it were as easy as all the numbers pointing up, then going up, the only reason to make moves in-season would be for injury replacements. I would take a look at what was said about him in his early days, then take a look at what his offseason was like. Also, the lineup is probably in the bottom half of the league, with the only benefit being Torre can’t possibly hit him 7th all season long. Im in a keeper league, and am strongly considering dealing him for Adrian Gonzalez and Robinson Cano. I say he has an off year, then bounces back in 2011.