I think the main concern about Alex Gordon is his continued struggles against LHP. His OPS against LHP actually declined in 2008. He was at .686 as a rookie and .629 last year.

He gave away over 100 points off his slugging percentage against LHP, but he improved his K/BB ratio to 18/41, after a miserable 7/35 mark as a rookie.

Not looking for an argument. Just thought it was odd that after quipping about journalists and hyberbole (with which I agree by the way), you go very much the other direction with Bruce – quite the understatement I would say, maybe as much of an understatement as those journalists’ overstatements about the probabilities of Weiters dominating American League this year.

As I said, he will almost positively be a great player. That will probably happen as early as this season. However, strictly in terms of fantasy, I would prefer an established player over upside in the range where I’ve seen Wieters taken in some mock drafts I’ve participated in. Get him in the 13th? That may qualify as a steal. Get him in the 10th? I can live with that. Reach for him in the 6th, immediately after Soto is selected? I think you need to temper your expectations. Regardless of what his limited minor league numbers, scouting reports, or college statistics say, he’s never had an MLB at-bat. There’s more uncertainty there than people want to admit.

Bruce’s debut wasn’t a disappointment. With 450 ABs, one 2008 projection that will remain unnamed had him at around 18 HR and 8 SB with a .276/.345/.487 line. His actual .254/.314/.453 line with 21 HR and 4 SB wasn’t too far off that. That’s very respectable for a 21 year-old in his first MLB season. Gordon is still under 25, spent zero time in AAA, and hits in a weak lineup. He improved last season, and I’d be hard pressed to call him a disappointment. Both of these guys are playing over replacement level. Are they stars? No, not yet. Honestly, though, how many elite hitting prospects put up career peak numbers in their first major league season?

The Brauns and Longorias are exception, not the rule. If you continually buy into hype and reach for players who’ve never had a MLB at-bat, you’re going to lose more often than not.

I agree with you about Wieters though. Comparing the chances of him hitting well to the chances of hitting 7 on a Roulette table is just crazy.

I’m not sure that any real experts think Gordon is a disappointment. The elite tools are still there, but he’s had problems because of his approach. That’s fixable, and it may be fixed as we speak. Relatively speaking, Gordon is accomplished for a player his age. The overexposure and opinions from pseudo-experts, however, create the illusion that Gordon is an underachiever. That’s fine by me. I’ll watch my fantasy league mates reach year after year for the next big (unproven) thing while the unappreciated veterans and “post-hype” sleepers fall into my lap during the later rounds.

Will Wieters be a great player? Almost positively. However, one cannot expect veteran production from a rookie player. If you do, you’re likely setting yourself up for disappointment. There are exceptions to the rule, but would you pull up a seat at the roulette table and put your 401k on 7? You may hit it big, but you’re probably better off making a safer bet.

As an Orioles fan, I’m not banking my mortgage that Wieters will succeed or anything. There’s just not too much to be excited about (our starting LF having an OPS above 750 is considered a success around here), so when we finally get a top prospect who seems to be worth something (Matusz doesn’t seem half bad either, for that matter).