Max Scherzer in Motown
Right-hander Max Scherzer looked poised to team with Dan Haren for years to come, giving the Diamondbacks an elite one-two punch at the top of the rotation. However, after January’s three-team headliner between the Yankees, Tigers and D-Backs, Scherzer now heads to Detroit to miss scads of bats alongside Justin Verlander.
Taken out of Missouri with the 11th overall pick in the 2006 amateur draft, Scherzer didn’t sign on the dotted line right away. The 6-5 power pitcher had a good, not great junior season for the Tigers, missing a run of starts with biceps and shoulder tendinitis. Baseball America said that Scherzer “only flashed” his mid-to-upper 90’s fastball velocity, generally sitting at 91-92 MPH. Scouts also had concerns about his herky-jerky delivery, as well as his promising-but-inconsistent hard slider and changeup.
With Scherzer still seeking top-line cash, negotiations between Arizona and agent Scott Boras moved at a glacial pace. This was before baseball instituted a mid-August signing deadline in 2007-prior to ‘07, teams retained the rights to a player up to one week prior to the next year’s draft. Scherzer kept sharp by pitching for the independent Fort Worth Cats. Eventually, Arizona ponied up $4.3 million in guaranteed money, with $1.5 million in incentives.
Max finally took a pro mound in 2007. He started his career in the High-A California League, scorching hitters for a 30/2 K/BB ratio and a 0.53 ERA in 17 IP and quickly earning a promotion to the Double-A Southern League. In 14 AA starts covering 73.2 frames, Scherzer struck out 9.3 batters per nine innings. His control left something to be desired (4.9 BB/9), but he posted a 3.46 FIP.
Following the ‘07 season, Baseball America named Scherzer the fourth-best prospect in a loaded Arizona system (Carlos Gonzalez, Jarrod Parker and Brett Anderson ranked ahead of him). BA gushed over his fastball, which hit the “mid-90’s with sinking action at its best.” Scherzer’s upper-80’s slider also impressed, though it was inconsistent.
However, they also noted that “some scouts who saw Scherzer as a starter at midseason wondered what the fuss was about.” His heater sat in the low-90’s, and “his overall stuff, command, feel and delivery all drew questions.” A dominant showing in relief in the Arizona Fall League (18 K in 12.2 IP) seemed to reinforce the concept that Scherzer could end up as a closer instead of a starter.
Scherzer began the 2008 season starting at Triple-A Tucson of the Pacific Coast League, but he was summoned to the majors in late April. He oscillated between the rotation and the ‘pen before being sent back to AAA in mid-June. Unfortunately, he came down with a case of shoulder inflammation, missing a month of the season. After a few relief appearances with the Sidewinders, Scherzer transitioned back to the minor league rotation in late July. Recalled to Arizona in late August, Max had a pair of relief stints and then spent September in the major league rotation. Whew-got all that?
In AAA, Scherzer simply outclassed the competition. He whiffed 13.4 batters per nine with 3.7 BB/9. Max’s FIP was a microscopic 2.07 in 53 innings. When batters weren’t swinging and missing wildly, they were chopping the ball into the ground (51.7 GB%).
With the Diamondbacks, Scherzer made seven starts and nine relief appearances in 56 IP. Overall, he displayed an impressive combo of power (10.61 K/9) and control (3.38 BB/9). Scherzer’s xFIP was just 3.19.
His stuff was as wicked as advertised. Scherzer sat at 94 MPH with his fastball, tossing the pitch about 73 percent of the time. That gas was supplemented by a mid-80’s slider (thrown 17 percent) and changeup (10 percent). Scherzer’s fastball had a +0.63 run value per 100 pitches, and his slider bucked knees for a +3.79 mark. The changeup lagged behind, though the sample size was small (-3.29). Scherzer pounded the strike zone, placing 54.7 percent of his pitches over the plate (51.1% MLB average in ‘08), and his 72.9% contact rate was well below the 80.8% big league average.
In 2009, Scherzer began the year on the DL with shoulder fatigue and tightness. Max became a full-time starter after his activation in mid-April, taking the mound 30 times and throwing 170.1 innings. The 25 year-old was extremely hard to hit, punching out 9.19 batters per nine innings. His 76.9% contact rate was 14-lowest among starters, and his 10.4 swinging strike rate placed 16th among starters (7.8% average for SP).
Scherzer’s control was solid as well. He issued a modest 3.33 BB/9, while getting ahead of batters with a 61.3 first-pitch strike percentage (58% MLB average). With a 3.88 xFIP, Scherzer placed in the top 20 among NL starters.
Max’s fastball didn’t lose much zip while making all of his appearances as a starter, sitting at 93.6 MPH. He still called on the pitch heavily: Scherzer’s 71% fastball usage was seventh-highest among starters. That heater was slightly below average on a per-pitch basis (-0.11 runs/100). Scherzer’s 85 MPH slider (thrown 12 percent) posted a +0.58 runs/100 value, while his changeup checked in at -0.61.
The high-octane righty subdued same-handed batters, holding right-handed hitters to a 92 sOPS+ (he performed eight percent better than the league average vs. RHB). Lefties fared better, with a 103 sOPS+.
In moving from Chase Field to Comerica Park, Scherzer goes from a hitter’s paradise to a park that still favors offense, though not to the same extent. According to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, Chase inflated run-scoring by 15 percent compared to a neutral ball park from 2007-2009. Over that same time period, Comerica boosted runs by five percent.
Overall, Scherzer’s first year as a permanent starter was extremely promising. Many have wondered why the Diamondbacks shipped him out of town, preferring two years of team control over Edwin Jackson and six years of Ian Kennedy over five years of Scherzer and six years of Daniel Schlereth.
The most likely reason is that Arizona doubts Scherzer’s long-term health and viability as a starting pitcher. To recap his extensive injury history since 2006: shoulder and biceps tendinitis in ‘06, shoulder inflammation in 2008, shoulder fatigue and tightness in 2009. His health certainly bears watching, especially considering that Scherzer’s innings total increased from 109 in 2008 to 175 in 2009 (major league innings plus one rehab start).
There’s little doubt that Scherzer has the talent to become one of the top 20-30 starters in the majors. Few pitchers combine his ability to miss bats with quality control. The question is: can he hold up physically?
Injury information taken from the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool
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If you get it, good for you.
If you don’t, too bad.
Ah, The “Inverted W”, ala Mark Prior & Anthony Reyes. Along with the “Inverted L” of the Carpenters & BJ Ryan’s of the world, it’s generally considered a high risk of injury motion.
2 things …
[1] Scherzer did not consistently go deep into games, and his stuff seemingly lost its overall effectiveness as he neared 100 pitches (IMO, the team set the 100 pitch limit on him not to be cautious, but because he did not pitch well as he neared the number), which too frequently was in the 5th inning or early 6th (5.2 IP/GS). I closely followed a reliever of AZ throughout the 09 season, and got to see Max pitch a lot. Great stuff (Saw him outduel Grienke in KC), but not consistent. I hope Max puts it all together, but he also has the potential to drive pitching coaches crazy.
[2] Schlereth is a walk machine (7.36/9 in MiLB). If you look at other AZ pitchers and their MiLB history, such as Scherzer (15.88 K/9 in A, 9.29 in AA, 13.42 in AAA) and Zavada (13.75 K/9 in A, 9.35 in AA), they ALL racked up HUGE K/9 rates, so there’s something to that. Schlereth is walk heavy, and is behind Zavada, Slaten, and Schoenweiss as lefties in AZ’s pen.
With losing Garland, AZ needed 2 starters more than they needed another LH reliever and a SP. That’s basically the gist of it right there. Jarrod Parker isn’t turning out to be the prospect he was once thought to be. If he was once a 5* prospect, he’s likely now a 4* guy, and Billy Buckner (nor Petit) is not ready to be in the rotation fulltime.
Petit, Buckner, and Scherzer drained a bullpen that also struggled at times, with the 8th inning being a nightmare for the Snakes.
In 2010, the Snakes show a rotation of Haren, Webb, Jackson, Davis, and Kennedy … with Ian being the only one that has not thrown 200 IP in a recent season. THAT is going to HELP the bullpen (thus, the team overall) greatly.
He had a tOPS+ of 86 from pitch 101 and on. And his OPS against from pitches 76-100 was better than it was from pitches 1-25 and 51-75. He also pitched better the 3rd time through the order than he did the 2nd time through the order. Maybe he did lose his stuff as he pitched later in games, but there is no statistical evidence to suggest it did. This is where Pitch f/x could come in handy…
That’s very interesting. If that’s the case, then my “observations” would be incorrect. I watched him quite a bit with the “How does this guy NOT throw a shutout every time out” type of amazement only to be convinced “Oh, that’s how” as his stuff would waver.
Are there similar BF or IP (sample sizes) for the pitch groups (1-25, 26-50, etc). I’m guessing there probably are.
It’s also possible that he went “all out” on his last 20 pitches knowing that he was coming out at 100 pitches too. Obviously, I do not recall specific bat-by-bat situations (I’m not that talented) and could be attributting his 3rd and 4th inning performance to “later innings”, once his pitch count and chance to make it into the 7th was already shot to heck.
Thanks for the correction, and the way you went about it. I’ll be sure to check out the pitch FX data.
Interesting, Max averages 23 p/IP (2969p/170.33 IP). That’s amazing.
So on average:
1st: 23p
2nd: 46p
3rd: 79p
4th: 102p
5th: 125p
6th: on and on …
So, I don’t doubt what you presented. My guess is that the games he gets through a lineup three times are the games he is ON. Because on average, there’s no way (given his ERA, etc) that he gets pulled for getting hammered by the 5th IP (but rather gets pulled because he’s at 100p in the 5th. Meaning: On days where he’s struggling big time, he probably doesn’t see the lineup the 3rd time through.
He’s one of those guys who due to “quality of stuff” and some “wildness” couldn’t ‘pitch to contact’ even he wanted to (or even if the philosophy existed in reality).
Is there pitch FX data elsewhere than FG? I’m interested to see how many games he did not make it through the 5th, as compared to how many games he made it through the lineup 3 times (likely pitching into the later innings).
My guess is he’s as inconsistent as a I remember.
Check your math. 46 + 23 is what now?
I never understood why it is called an inverted W. I mean, the english alphabet already has a perfectly good letter that IS an inverted W…(M)
Having said that, Scherzer’s delivery has always been flagged by scouts as high risk. It still seems like the diamondbacks could have gotten more for him, but maybe this is like the cliff lee situation where a guy who seems like he should have a ton of trade value just never gets that much interest from GMs.
It sounds cool.
“giving the Diamondbacks an elite one-two punch at the top of the rotation”
Brandon Webb just rolled over in his hyperbolic air chamber
I think it’s a little early in his career to suggest that Scherzer’s inability to work deep into games is a given in the future. You guys are acting like he’s been pitching like this for 10 years.
As for his injury risk I thinks it’s clear that he is one. However, I am pretty sure that Chris Carpenter has a Cy Young and Edwin Jackson does not. Looking at their careers Scherzer is a much better pitcher at this point then Carpenter was at the same age. Giving away pitchers like Scherzer (and by extension like Carpenter) does not win you titles, although clearly there will be years when keeping pitchers like Scherzer will result in a lost year or two.
I’m acting like a guy who understands that [1] pitching accuracy and [2] efficiency are traits that generally do NOT develop at the major league level.
Randy Johnson is one of the FEW guys that I can think of that was able to enhance his control while maintaining his high K rate.
Johnson also had a highly repeatable delivery and was very durable.
Can Scherzer improve his control and decrease his P/IP? Sure, and I hope he does. Is it likely that he will improve this significantly? I wouldn’t bet on it.
Max’s IP/Year:
2007: 90.2
2008: 109
2009: 175
People are asking A LOT out of young pitcher.
[1] Increase control … (very tough)
[2] …. while maintaining a high K rate (even tougher)
[3] While improving mechanics (ain’t gonna happen)
[4] Pitch deeper into games (highly dependent on #1 and #2)
[5] Stay healthy (while pitching more and better)
Good luck.
The BIG thing is that if he does improve his command and clean up his mechanics, he has a great chance to do all 5 thinigs. But, at the MLB level, it’s highly unlikely.
Again, RJ figured it out at about 30 and went on to have a HoF, long, dominant career. But, RJ is a very unique situation, and has very little in common with a youong Scherzer. RJ was a raw as pitchers come, Max is an estbalished college pitcher with a history of injuries.
Jim Leyland is going to destroy Max’s arm/shoulder
Verlander’s held up so far.
Verlander also has what is considered “near perfect” mechanics AND an optimal pitching frame.
I don’t know what relevance that has to this discussion, only giving credit to Verlander.
If a pitcher has “sub-optimal” mechanics, such as Chris Carpenter, then it cannot be blamed on the manager when an injury occurs.
The manager’s job is to play the players that give the team the best chance to win.
Jim Leyland won’t be the cause of Scherzer’s future injuries.
The original poster said that Leyland would destroy his shoulder. I’ve read countless articles questioning Scherzer’s mechanics, so I don’t see why Leyland would be the main concern going forward. I simply pointed to Verlander as one case study example (and you need to be careful with those) that would disprove of that theory. If Scherzer gets injured going forward, I imagine it would mostly relate to his mechanics and not Leyland’s handling of him.
Can you point me to a site that deals with pitcher’s mechanics? Why does Verlander have near perfect mechanics and an optimal pitching frame? I’d be interested in reading more about that and trying to identify pitchers at risk for future injury and/or just learning about proper pitching mechanics.
This is a pretty good site.
http://chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/index.html
When I first followed a link to Chris O’Leary’s site I saw that he had never pitched himself. So, naturally (as a former pitcher and pitching coach), I went around his website just looking for mistakes and faults. I found the opposite, a bunch of very well written and accurate analysis and a whole LOT of frame-by-frame analysis of what MLB pitchers actually do.
Thanks for the link. Pretty interesting stuff. I had read elsewhere that some scouts were worried about Lincecum’s mechanics, but he isn’t. He also was a big fan of Verlander’s throwing motion, as you said.
Lincecum’s motion is sorta “revolutionary” (in regards to he is able to repeatedly do things that we previously thought of as ‘no-nos” or ’stressers”..
[1] It’s violent/dynamic.
[2] His stride length is 120% height (<100% is average/normal)
[3] His hip-shoulder seperation is amazing (belt buckle facing home plate, right shoulder facing 3rd base).
Oswalt is somewhat similar in regards to stride length and hip/shoulder seperation, Only Roy has a much larger legs and ass (that's a compliment BTW), so he doesn't need to be as dyanic/violent with the motion. Both are smallish guys that thorw with serious velocity and movement.
I don't worry about Lincecum's arm as much as I do a potential knee/groin/adductor/oblique type injury.
Another aspect to watch for is how his body "ages" in terms of decreased athleticism/flexibility. He may tweak his motion as he gets a little older. He may fill out more, get stronger, and be able to throw with the same velocity, etc with a "little more conventional" motion.
I don;t think Lincecum will have MAJOR impact on how we view mechanics, because (IMHO) he is a very unique case. He is extremelly athletic, sinewy, and flexibile. Geez, his stride is 120% height AND he's a MAJOR heel striker/lander.
But, dang, he shor is fancy ta watch.
Great read. Thanks for the info. I like statistics as much as the next guy but I know next to nothing about mechanics and want to learn more. I have to imagine that some pitchers are at greater risk for injuries than others are. I know every pitcher is an injury risk, but some have to be greater than others. What about Verlander? He has a lot of innings on his arm. But, like the author of that site, do you think he will hold up well long term? If so, why?
The information in your question seemingly answers the question. *grin*
[1] He HAS held up is an indicator that he WILL hold up. His IP ar basically consistent.
[2] Near Ideal body frame. 6′5, long and lean,
[3] Sound and Smooth Mechanics — “free and easy” (smooth) delivery indicate that pitching is essentially “effortless” for him. He throws mid 90s with what appears to be “not much effort” in a delivery that is highly repeatable and not susceptible to fatigue as the game goes on.
[4] He also isn’t over reliant on what is a very good curveball. Not only does he have great velocity, but he uses tailing movement on his fastball. Basically he does almost everything very well, combined with a body frame that is near ideal for pitching.
[5] He also isn’t a “slider-dominated” pitcher. He throws it, but sparingly.
The only thing he does that I do not particularly care for is land on his heel, with his hips already open. This is “suppossed” to supress velocity a bit, which seems hilarious given the pitcher we are talking about. But, he lands “soft” (as compared to Lincecum’s “hard”). It also reduces the risk of injury on his front knee, since he doesn’t have a lot of “rotation around it”.
At some point he will experience an “accumulation” injury like all pitchers do, even those with good mechanics. But he should be able to comeback from that with minor (clean up) surgery and pick up where he left off.
Aren’t you guys forgetting that Scherzer has heterochromia?
It resulted in him having one of the best nicknames for a pitcher “The Terminator”.
Classic.
leyland will leave him in too long. mechanics or not
Porcello threw 170 IP over 31 GS.
Scherzer threw 170 IP in 30 GS.
Porcello averaged 15.8 pitches/IP;
Scherzer 17.5 pitches/IP
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Leyland seemed to follow the career trend with EJax, with upping his IP by ~25 IP each year as a full-time starter (160-185-215).
It’s possible that Leyloand over-extends Max, but he didn’t with Rick. I, personally, would look to get both guys up towards 190 IP or so, especially given DET’s bullpen losses. There are going to be some young guys in the BP and DET is not going to be able to abuse them. The young SP’s for DET need to mature and part of that is throwing more IPs. It just needs to be done gradually and not all at once.
Scherzer actually three 133 innings in 2008, not 109 – he also pitched 24 innings in the Arizona Fall League that year, specifically to get his work in. So it wasn’t such an enormous jump to 175 this season.
any info on Porcello’s mechanics… how’s the nxt “Roy Halladay” gonna hold up?
Couldn’t the high p/ip be partially due to the high BABIP of .323 in ‘09?
Draft with appropriate risk in mind…this guy could be hurt or in the Pen sooner than later:
“If the Diamondbacks viewed Max Scherzer as a can’t-miss, front-line type of pitcher, there is no chance they would have traded him early in his major league service time. Rather, there is some sentiment inside (and outside) the organization that with his unusual head-snapping mechanics, Scherzer is going to be at high risk for injury, and that eventually, he would probably have to be moved to short relief.”
- Buster Olney
http://bit.ly/aKH27S
Didn’t Porcello get shut down mid-season? I think this was an organizational move to rest the young SP. Not sure if this has any bearing on your discussion regarding Leyland and the Tigers possibly abusing Scherzer.
No, Porcello was not shut down at any point last season. He was on a very strict pitch count for the entirety of the year, and only at the very end was he allowed to even come near or over 100 pitches.