“If the Diamondbacks viewed Max Scherzer as a can’t-miss, front-line type of pitcher, there is no chance they would have traded him early in his major league service time. Rather, there is some sentiment inside (and outside) the organization that with his unusual head-snapping mechanics, Scherzer is going to be at high risk for injury, and that eventually, he would probably have to be moved to short relief.”

- Buster Olney

http://bit.ly/aKH27S

leyland will leave him in too long. mechanics or not

Porcello threw 170 IP over 31 GS.
Scherzer threw 170 IP in 30 GS.

Porcello averaged 15.8 pitches/IP;
Scherzer 17.5 pitches/IP

Note the number I had for Scherzer earlier (23 pitches/IP) is incorrect and I don’t recall how I got that, unless I took Max’s career total of pitches divided by 170 IP.

==============================

Leyland seemed to follow the career trend with EJax, with upping his IP by ~25 IP each year as a full-time starter (160-185-215).

It’s possible that Leyloand over-extends Max, but he didn’t with Rick. I, personally, would look to get both guys up towards 190 IP or so, especially given DET’s bullpen losses. There are going to be some young guys in the BP and DET is not going to be able to abuse them. The young SP’s for DET need to mature and part of that is throwing more IPs. It just needs to be done gradually and not all at once.

What about Verlander? He has a lot of innings on his arm. But, like the author of that site, do you think he will hold up well long term? If so, why?,

The information in your question seemingly answers the question. *grin*

[1] He HAS held up is an indicator that he WILL hold up. His IP ar basically consistent.

[2] Near Ideal body frame. 6′5, long and lean,

[3] Sound and Smooth Mechanics — “free and easy” (smooth) delivery indicate that pitching is essentially “effortless” for him. He throws mid 90s with what appears to be “not much effort” in a delivery that is highly repeatable and not susceptible to fatigue as the game goes on.

[4] He also isn’t over reliant on what is a very good curveball. Not only does he have great velocity, but he uses tailing movement on his fastball. Basically he does almost everything very well, combined with a body frame that is near ideal for pitching.

[5] He also isn’t a “slider-dominated” pitcher. He throws it, but sparingly.

The only thing he does that I do not particularly care for is land on his heel, with his hips already open. This is “suppossed” to supress velocity a bit, which seems hilarious given the pitcher we are talking about. But, he lands “soft” (as compared to Lincecum’s “hard”). It also reduces the risk of injury on his front knee, since he doesn’t have a lot of “rotation around it”.

At some point he will experience an “accumulation” injury like all pitchers do, even those with good mechanics. But he should be able to comeback from that with minor (clean up) surgery and pick up where he left off.

What about Verlander? He has a lot of innings on his arm. But, like the author of that site, do you think he will hold up well long term? If so, why?,/blockquote>

The information in your question seemingly answers the question. *grin*

We’re looking at whether Verlander will hold up, and the answer is that he has basically thrown 200 IP in every season. So, he shows that he has held up, which is a good indicator that he will hold up. His IP haven’t jumped all over the place, say from 150 to 260, back down to 190, etc. He’s sort of a metronome in IP.

Being 6’5, long and lean, with sound mechanics, and “free and easy” (smooth) delivery indicate that pitching is essentially “effortless” for him. He throws mid 90s with what appears to be “not much effort” in a delivery that is highly repeatable and not suspeptible to fatigue as the game goes on.

The only thing he does that I do not particularly care for is land on his heel, with his hips already open. This is “suppossed” to supress velocity a bit, which seems hilarious given the pitcher we are talking about. But, he lands “soft” (as compared to Lincecum’s “hard”). It also reduces the risk of injury on his front knee, since he doesn’t have a lot of “rotation around it”.

I think Verlander is a “prototype” for tall pitchers. At some point he will experience an “accumulation” injury like all pitchers do, even those with good mechanics. But he should be able to comeback from that with minor (clean up) surgery and pick up where he left off.

He also isn’t over reliant on what is a very good curveball. Not only does he have great velocity, but he uses tailing movement on his fastball. Basically he does almost everything very well, combined with a body frame that is near ideal for pitching.

He also isn’t a “slider-dominated” pitcher. He throws it, but sparingly.