Mike Napoli: Free At Last
By now you’ve heard about and have had time to digest the blockbuster trade that sent Vernon Wells and his entire contract to the Angels for Juan Rivera and Mike Napoli. It was a stunning transaction that pitted one of the game’s youngest and brightest GM’s against a team mired in apparent desperation after a rather uneventful offseason, but man, it still took a day or two to wrap your head around that monster. As fantasy players, we get to celebrate Napoli’s freedom from Mike Scioscia and his Jeff Mathis love-fest.
Last season was the first time that Napoli received more than 500 plate appearances in a season (510 to be exact), and he needed a fluke injury to Kendry Morales to get even that many. He was the team’s regular first baseman from the middle of June through the end of the season, though he’ll still retain catcher eligibility in pretty much all leagues because he started 59 games behind the dish. You can thank early season injuries to Mathis and Bobby Wilson for that. Obviously, catcher is where his fantasy value lies.
We all know about Napoli’s power. He’s clubbed no fewer than 20 homers in each of the last three seasons despite the sporadic playing time, and he’s moving from a park with 99 HR park factor (for RHB) to one with a 116 HR park factor according to StatCorner. He’ll spend the entire 2011 season at age 29, so age-related decline isn’t a concern just yet. In fact, playing second fiddle to Mathis for the last few years will probably benefit his body over the next year or two or three given the typical age curve of catchers. Bill James projects a .246 AVG, 24 HR, 66 RBI, the fans .260/25/766, and ZiPS .251/22/58.
Production isn’t much of a question with Napoli, but the playing time always was. The trade to Toronto answers those questions, since there are openings both behind the plate, at first base, and at designated hitter. If J.P. Arencibia is deemed ready, Napoli can slide over to first. If Adam Lind is going to be given the chance to learn the position considering his long-term contract commitment with the team, then there’s always the DH spot. We actually don’t want Napoli catching, playing first or DH on an everyday basis will keep him in the lineup and limit the days off/nagging injuries, which is what you want for you team’s catcher slot.
Napoli isn’t much of a sleeper these days, but his fantasy value did climb a bit with the trade. Playing time will (theoretically) be more consistent, which is all we ask for. Sure, there’s always a chance that new manager John Farrell will be the next Mike Scioscia, but if you’re looking for a backstop after the big three plus Buster Posey are off the board, Napoli’s a mighty fine consolation prize.
Go here if you want to submit your fan projection for Napoli, if you haven’t done so already.
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In interviews after the trade, AA seems to barely be able to remember then names of the two players the Jays got from the Angels. Pretty much the last thing the Jays need is another catcher, and they were already pretty much set at DH/1B with E5 and Lind. What the Jays really need is someone at third base. I’d be surprised if Napoli and Rivera are with the Jays come April. This feels like the first part of a multipart trade. If Napoli sticks with the Jays, it is as a replacement for E5 — playing some first, some DH, and occasionally backing up as catcher.
I’m pretty sure that AA is too smart to allow his manager to keep E5 between Napoli and his plate appearances.
too smart, even.
I agree – I think that with Farrell being a relatively new manager, AA can control him more than he could have controlled stone cold Cito.
I’m hoping they deal Napoli, I’m going to hold out of editing my Arencibia projection as long as I can. I was excited to see him hit 20 plus HR.
I think the Arencibia hype train has gotten way ahead of itself. While he was highly touted he didn’t put up big pro numbers until the team moved to the offensive environment of Las Vegas and his numbers shot through the roof.
I am not convinced he ever hits above .250 with 20 HRs per annum. Especially not in 2011.
Napoli won’t be flipped, my guess is AA sees value here, as he should. He will hit full-time versus lefties and occassionally versus righties. There aren’t many better in house C/DH/1B options vs L.
To be fair, in 2009 he was injury prone and had eye problems which were corrected.
He didn’t do all that bad in AA. While he won’t be a stud hitter (low OBP with high B/KK rate, he has tremendous value as a catcher (offensively s peaking)
Just listen to AA’s answers to the two questions about Napoli and Rivera in the “Alex Anthopoulos talks about the Vernon Wells trade” here: http://bluejays.mlb.com/index.jsp?c_id=tor
I think Napoli sticks with Toronto for now. AA might trade him when his value has increased a bit. The Jays front office doesn’t seem convinced that Arencibia should be the starting C, at least not yet. And the better catching prospects (D’Arnaud, Perez, Jimenez) are at least a full year or two away. Having Napoli around gives the organization some more short-term flexibility at the position.
Aren’t the park factor numbers misleading and not necessarily helpful in predicting power output for Napoli? If you compare the past few years of Rogers Stadium versus Anaheim (via ESPN’s park factor calcs), Rogers was at 1.358 for 2010 vs .825 for Anaheim; in 2009, it was Rogers at .990 vs 1.220 for Anaheim; and in 2008, they were ranked right next to each other at .926 for Rogers and .933 for Anaheim. Going further back, the numbers continue to bounce around.
Sure, some parks are bandboxes, and others are caverns, and that affects homeruns hit. But in this particular case, as we see the values jump all over the place for these two stadiums, can’t we connect the dots that it wasn’t so much the park that was causing these homers (unless the stadiums are transforming every year) but the makeup of the players on the teams, the injuries to certain performers, and the change of an offensive mindset (as noted by the Blue Jay’s hitting coach) that accounted for the jump in Rogers’ homerun factor and the drop in Anaheim’s last year? In other words, if you put the Angels at Rogers and the Blue Jays in Anaheim last year, would those “park effects” still hold, or would you see Anaheim with the 1.358 and Rogers with the .825, or some approximation there of?
I honestly don’t know for sure, this is just something that I’ve never fully embraced as “sound” logic. Feel free to correct me!
I’ve been wondering about this as well, after so many people seem to be claiming vdub’s 2010 was a product of his home field, when the Rogers Center’s park factors seem to be changing so dramatically year to year. If a team hits more home runs in general than they did the year before, presumably the park’s HR factor will increase along with it. If a team has a rotation with low HR/9 wouldn’t this also effect the park effect’s value? Do park effects compensate for this?
Napoli traded to TEX
Ok. So much for speculation. Now Napoli is shipped to Texas. What say the prognosticators now? I just traded for him in my Fantasy League when He got shipped to Toronto. Now he is flipped to TExas. Did I make a mistake. Does Napoli’s value increase or decrease based on his speculated playing time?
I’d say this could help. Even better lineup in a tighter ballpark. Torrealba and Treanor shouldn’t prevent him from getting his swings. Texas likes it’s big bats and Napoli should find plenty of plate appearances. I’d say slight increase in value if I were playing conservatively. Too bad for the Angels, they were probably looking to move outside the Division. heheh..
playing time will always be an issue with Napoli. He’s pretty bad at C, and he can’t hit enough to be a full-time 1B or DH. I imagine he’ll hit 20 HR in 400 PA just like he did for LAA.
Fans project 766 RBI?? Guess I know who I’m taking with my first pick.
One day! Xiao Ming another class …. a sudden “rush”(fart) a cry,sitting next to a small U.S. scolded and said: Xiao-Ming Ah ~ if you could not make a noise.