Morrow: Closer of Today
Seattle Mariners’ right-hander Brandon Morrow has endured a rather bizarre professional career to this point. A high-octane starter at Cal, Morrow was selected 5th overall by the M’s in the 2006 amateur draft. Baseball America dubbed him “owner of perhaps the best pure arm in the draft”, noting his ability to sit in the mid-90′s with his heat while supplementing it with a sharp mid-80′s slider and a work-in-progress changeup.
In most organizations, such a talent would have been sent to A-Ball in order to develop those secondary offerings and gradually build the arm strength and stamina necessary to become a complete starting pitcher. However, with the always inscrutable Bill Bavasi running the show, Morrow scarcely saw the minors at all. Rather, he was pigeonholed in the major league bullpen to begin the 2007 season.
The move was about as enlightened as giving the Mariner Moose an on-field ATV. The 22 year-old did what you would expect a green-as-grass rookie to do when shoved to the bigs: he pumped 95 MPH fastball after fastball (thrown 80% of the time), while displaying control that only Bob Uecker could spin-doctor. In 63.1 frames, Morrow managed to whiff 9.38 batters per nine on the basis of his immense raw talent, but he handed out free passes like Aquafina, with 7.11 BB/9.
The 6-3, 180 pounder was again relegated to relief work to begin the 2008 campaign. In 36.2 frames out of the ‘pen, Morrow singed opposing batters with 47 K’s (11.5 per nine), with modest improvement in the walk department (15, or 3.7 BB/9). Just over two years after expending such a high draft pick on Morrow and then devaluing their asset by rushing him, the M’s decided to transition the former Golden Bear ace to the rotation in early August. Morrow was sent to AAA Tacoma to get stretched out, where he punched out 10.03 batters per nine with 4.24 BB/9.
Recalled in early September, Morrow made five starts for Seattle down the stretch. The results were uneven, but occasionally dazzling. He gave up six earned runs versus offensive weaklings Oakland and Kansas City, but also turned in an absolute gem versus the Yankees on September 5th (7.2 IP, 1 H, 1R, 3BB, 8K) in which he showcased a devastating arsenal. Overall, Morrow the starter struck out a batter per inning (28 K in 28 IP), while showing characteristic control hiccups (19 BB).
The Mariners (now mercifully under the care of player development guru Jack Zduriencik) seemed intent on making Morrow a permanent member of the rotation in 2009, but circumstances have changed. After dealing with forearm tightness earlier this spring, Morrow has claimed to be more comfortable in the ‘pen, and the M’s will apparently acquiesce.
Whether this is a good thing for the long-term prospects of the franchise is certainly debatable: even the most talented, highly-leveraged relievers don’t produce the same level of value as a starter does (a large quantity of good innings trumps a small quantity of great frames). However, between Morrow’s forearm issues, diabetic condition and comfort in the bullpen, perhaps the choice was not so straightforward.
Morrow obviously becomes the top man in a bullpen that figures to be a consortium of trade acquisitions, waiver claims and home-grown hopefuls. His wicked fastball/slider combo should sufficiently eviscerate right-handers, and the development of a reliable third offering (he threw a splitter/changeup about 10% of the time in ’08) becomes less of an issue while only having to deal with lefties one time through the order. Morrow still has some kinks to work out in terms of catching the plate on a more regular basis, but he comes equipped with the tools to shipwreck opposing batters in the late innings.
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The Mariners might soon pass the Pirates as the worst run orginzation in baseball. A team that realistically has no shot to win the division is going to place him in role in which isn’t necessarily needed to build a career on or the team’s future. What they need to do is let this kid grow into being a #2 starter and build the team around him and Felix.
Now it’s reported they are sending down Jeff Clement, again. It’s only a matter of time before they mismanage the career of Halman. This club needs to get a clue…
The Mariners are pretty much handicapped with the Morrow situation. He has said that he doesn’t feel comfortable starting, and it isn’t like they can force him. The Clement demotion on the other hand…
“The Mariners might soon pass the Pirates as the worst run orginzation in baseball. ”
Looks like someone didn’t read the “unbiased” organizational rankings and the high grade the Mariners “deserved” and got for their great management……..
Is this confirming he will close? Or just speculation?
Brian,
All indications are that Morrow will take over 9th inning duty.
well in that case do u think it would be a good idea to drop chris ray from my team and pick up morrow?
I would definitely snag Morrow if he’s available. Ray might be worth keeping, however, with Sherrill having a tenuous grip on the Baltimore job.
Thanks Dave
I’d definitely consider Morrow the 9th inning guy considering the alternatives, and the fact that Tyler Walker was cut today.
As for the organization, Morrow has always had limited starter skills. I tend to believe that this wasn’t a decision made in haste. I’m sorry, he’s not Tim Lincecum.
The fact that Morrow is diabetic may very well make this a win-win situation for the M’s and Morrow. It is a lot easier to manage blood sugar levels over an inning than it is over 7-8 innings.
Morrow is head and shoulders above any of the other closer candidates the M’s have in their bullpen.
No one, including Bavasi, messed up Morrow’s development. The guy has type I diabetes. Morrow has repeatedly proven that he goes downhill quickly after 40-45 pitches. He will be a very good closer.
I also take issue with the suggestion that an elite closer is somehow worth less than an average starter… especially when the closer is capable of multi-innings saves on a consistent basis. 80-100 innings of 2.5 era relief is better than 160-200 innings of 4.25 era starting.
mydquin,
I’m not sure that I agree with the starter/reliever valuation. Few closers go multiple innings anymore- the “relief ace” days where guys went 2-3 frames at a time no longer exist. The closer with the most innings last season was Salomon Torres, with 80.
Let’s say that Morrow would post a 3.00 FIP as a reliever and a 4.00 FIP as a starter.
As a reliever (80 innings)
-27 runs surrendered
-replacement level reliever (4.50 FIP) would give up 40, for a difference of 13 runs.
As a starter (175 innings)
-80 runs surrendered
-a replacement level starter (5.50 FIP) probably wouldn’t reach 175 IP, so let’s cap his innings at 150 and add 25 innings from a 4.50 FIP reliever :104.5 runs surrendered, for a difference of 24.5 runs
So, a reliever in that situtation would save 13 runs above replacement, as opposed to 24.5 runs for a starter. Even if we “weigh” the closer’s innings to account for leverage (I used 1.5, the average Leverage Index for a closer), the relievers RAR is still less than 20.
I agree that extenuating circumstances may have forced Seattle’s hand here. But if presented with a situation where a pitcher CAN either start or relieve, I’d take the starter every day.
While this news is certainly disconcerting for the M’s future(and the future rotation), I wonder if it’s an absolute given that Morrow won’t be a starting pitcher ever again? Perhaps with a full season of pitching out of the bullpen and being able to manage his condition effectively, the M’s front office will approach him again at season’s end, armed with anecdotal data about how well he’s done so far, and will try to persuade him that–given more attention and seasoning–he could gradually move into a starting role?
Or maybe that’s just my wish. :)