…Must Come Down
With spring training in full swing and most drafts set to begin, now seems like the perfect time to recap which starting pitchers might see a dip or rebound in their respective performances. Here’s a quick look at the five hurlers with the largest discord between their Earned Run Average and Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). Let’s take a look at the guys who couldn’t catch a break in 2008.
1.) Livan Hernandez, Mets (Twins and Rockies in ‘08)
6.05 ERA, 4.94 FIP
With a fastball that couldn’t tear through tissue paper (83.7 MPH), Livan surrendered an astounding 257 hits in 180 innings pitched. Sure, his .345 BABIP will likely fall somewhat, but Hernandez is still to be avoided in all fantasy leagues. His lone skill at this point is showing up for work every fifth day. Hernandez’s combination of average pitching and durability was once quite valuable (he tallied Win Values of 4.5 in 2003 and 4.6 in 2004 while with the Expos), but there’s nothing to see here now.
2.) Kevin Millwood, Rangers
5.07 ERA, 4.02 FIP
Millwood’s peripherals weren’t terrible last year (6.67 K/9, 2.61 BB/9), but he was felled by a .366 BABIP, highest among all qualified starters. The 34 year-old did surrender line drives aplenty, however (25.3 LD%).
3.) Javier Vazquez, Braves (White Sox in ‘08)
4.67 ERA, 3.74 FIP
Vazquez has long been the subject of head-scratching in sabermetric circles. Low-90’s heat, a pair of nasty breaking balls, a solid changeup, strong K/BB ratios…Javy looks like an ace. However, despite strong career rates (7.99 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, 3.93 FIP), Vazquez’s ERA sits at a fair-but-unspectacular 4.32. Vazquez always seems to go five innings strong, only to groove that One Bad Pitch (TM) that makes his outing look a bit less impressive. His career OPS against in innings 1-5 is .721. In the sixth inning? .867.
Javy posted another strong campaign in ‘08 (8.64 K/9, 2.64 BB/9), but a .328 BABIP made his performance appear worse than it really was. Don’t be surprised if this flyball hurler posts a sub-four ERA, now that he’s out of The Cell and back in the NL.
4.) Ian Snell, Pirates
5.42 ERA, 4.57 FIP
Snell battled some health issues and his control in ‘08 (4.87 BB/9). On the plus side, he retained his velocity and still punched out a decent 7.39 batters per nine innings. Behind one of the most execrable defensive clubs in the majors (the Bucs ranked 21st in team UZR/150 and 28th in Defensive Efficiency), Snell had the misfortune of surrendering a .358 BABIP. If he wants to get back to his promising 2007 form (4.01 FIP), Snell is going to have to cut the free passes and find something to quell left-handed batters. Relying almost exclusively on a fastball/slider combo, Snell has allowed the average southpaw to turn into late-career Todd Helton against him (.301/.387/.494).
5.) Andy Pettitte, Yankees
4.54 ERA, 3.71 FIP
In many respects, Pettitte’s 2008 season mirrored his work from the previous two years with the Astros and Yankees. He posted his lowest FIP since 2005, with a sturdy 2.87 K/BB ratio. Unfortunately, the porous Bronx Bombers D let Pettitte down, and he allowed a .339 BABIP. As a pitcher who generates a fair amount of groundballs, Pettitte is going to need better work from 2B Robinson Cano (a plus defender in ‘07, but he came in at -6.4 UZR/150 in ‘08) while living with SS Derek Jeter’s limited range. New first baseman Mark Teixeira should help matters to some extent. A switch-hitting force, Tex was also a vacuum with the Braves and Angels in 2008 (9.4 UZR/150).
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Jeter’s limited range wasn’t nearly as bad last season (-0.6 UZR/150) as it was in 2007 (-18.0 UZR/150), although given his defense over the last several years, I would expect some regression to his recent defensive mean.
When determing this list, was there an innings minimum qualifier?? If not, then why wasn’t Luke Hochevar on this list. 5.51 ERA, 4.51 FIP.
..and actually, this site has his FIP even lower. 4.43. Regardless….Hochevar should be a solid #4 starter.
This is a very good list as is the other, and I’d venture to guess that you’re probably right about all these guys. The only thing is that FIP is not all that wonderful a measure of ERA. FIP does not take into account the interaction between each of its components. Guys like Santana are going to be underrated by FIP because it doesn’t take into account how few of their HRs come with runners on due to the high K/BB ratio which keeps the runners on base low.
Vazquez seems to make every list like this every year, and he seems continue to confound FIP and whatever stat based on K/BB/HR rate you want to look at.I would say hes an anomoly at this point whom one should expect to post an era at least a half run higher than his FIP at minnium and likely more.The guy has managed an ERA better than LG evaergae one year over the past 5.
Perhaps moving to the NL will help but I would not count on anything better then a 4.30-30ERA witha sub 4.00 era about as likely as one in the high 4s
KowBoyKoop,
I only used qualified pitchers for the list.