Nab Napoli On Draft Day
Quick: name the catcher with the highest slugging percentage (minimum 270 plate appearances) in 2008. Geovany Soto? No. Kelly Shoppach? Nope. Brian McCann? Closer, but not quite.
The answer, believe it or not, is Mike Napoli, with a whopping .586 mark. While the Angels backstop has yet to receive a full-time job in his three big league seasons, he has proven more than capable of crushing the ball on a regular basis.
Yes, Napoli does strike out. A lot. In 714 career at-bats, the 27 year-old has whiffed at a 31.2% clip. However, unlike Cleveland’s Shoppach (another high power, low contact catcher) Napoli combines his extra-base pop with a very keen batting eye. He posted a rock-solid .374 OBP in the minors, and that plate patience has carried over to the majors rather seamlessly. Napoli has drawn free passes 14.3% of the time, rarely straying outside of the strike zone (23.4 O-Swing%). Napoli’s batting average won’t be pretty, but he possesses the walks and power to remain a very productive hitter.
Napoli’s power is impressive regardless of his position, but it’s downright heavenly for a catcher. Owner of a career .493 slugging percentage and a gargantuan .245 ISO, Napoli took his slugging exploits to even greater levels last year. Granted, it was only 274 PA, but Napoli’s .313 ISO was the best of any batter receiving at least 270 PA, surpassing demi-god/cyborg Albert Pujols (.296), and his wOBA of .399 ranked 15th in the big leagues.
The Angels’ 17th-round pick in the 2000 draft has yet to receive a full-time gig for two reasons: 1.) Napoli suffered ankle and hamstring injuries in 2007, as well as a shoulder ailment in 2008 and 2.) the Angels have taken a liking to catch-and-throw backstop Jeff Mathis. Mathis was once a well-regarded prospect himself, but offense dried up upon reaching AAA Salt Lake City, and he has authored a sickly .195/.272/.326 line in 589 career PA. It is pretty difficult to conceive of a scenario where Mathis’ defense atones for that sort of offensive performance (and, Napoli actually posted better caught stealing percentages in 2006 and 2007, before Mathis bested him in ’08 while Napoli dealt with a shoulder injury).
Mike Napoli might not be as well known as some other players who don the tools of ignorance, but his potent bat makes him an intriguing choice on draft day. Napoli may miss a few games with some bumps and bruises, and Brad Ausmus proxy Mathis could steal a start here and there. But how many catcher possess secondary skills of this caliber? The Bill James projection system forecasts a .252/.361/.512 line for Napoli in 449 AB, with a whopping 31 home runs. Perhaps you might think that’s a tad optimistic, but even more conservative estimates would place Napoli among the top-hitting catchers in the major leagues. If you want an Angelic performance from your starting catcher, Nab Napoli while you still can.
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David, I love your opinion here and actually agree wholeheartedly with your assessment of Napoli for next season.
Does Napoli potentially have the ability to hit for a decent BA in the range 270-285 over a full season? We all know about the power. Last season, he closed out an injury-riddled campaign with a monstrous September to significantly hike up that batting average to a very respectable level. Does he possess the skills to hit for average AND power over a full season?
I’m curious to know when a good time to draft Napoli is. I’m currently drafting a 12-team, 26-player (plus 5-prospect minor league) draft and we’re into the 15th round. Thanks to a previous trade, I’ve got two picks this round and was thinking about snagging Napoli before it’s too late. As I type this, eight catchers have been drafted.
Napoli (also Clement as a late sleeper) is the only catcher left that I like for essentially my everyday starter. I realize Mathis will steal some games from him, but if the two keep going in opposite directions, how long will those trends keep up? The Angels can ill-afford to keep such a good, powerful bat like Napoli’s out of the lineup for many games.
I’m basically set at every position except for C, RP (haven’t drafted ANY) and I could use a fourth OF. Am I smart to draft Napoli now, in the fifteenth round?
Thanks again for the read. I loves me some good number-crunching and in-depth analysis like this article. Keep the good stuff coming!
Mike,
Thanks for the kind words. I would absolutely look to snag Napoli at that point. I think that, given his lower contact rate and higher K rate, it’s unlikely that he will hit for a high average. However, he certainly possesses the secondary skills (walks and power) to make up for it and them some. The Angels, sans Teixeira, figure to have a hard time putting runs on the board. I would be surprised if Napoli isn’t in there on a consistent basis. They need his bat.
Great, that’s good to hear, David!
I’ve gone ahead and drafted Napoli this afternoon, hoping he can stay healthy and get consistent playing time. There’s no doubt about which of the two is the more valuable catcher between Napoli and Mathis. I just can’t see the playing time this season being split any less than a 70/30 split in favour of Napoli. Like we agree, Napoli’s bat is too valuable to take out of that lineup, especially now sans Teixeira.
On a brief side note, I used my other 15th rounder on Beltre. I figure he’s due for a bigger season, what with playing for a contract and all. And we all remember what he did in his last contract year (2004).
David, do you know if anyone will be getting to a Beltre draft-day article anytime soon? I’d love to read up on him some more before the season gets underway.
I only recently discovered this website, but it’s very quickly become my go-to fantasy baseball information site over the past couple of weeks.
Thanks for your insight! I appreciate it.