Non-Keeper Would You Rather: Yoenis Cespedes or Bryce Harper?
We’ve spent so much time on these Would You Rathers with respect to keeper leagues that it’s time we threw some out for those that re-draft each year. Taking long term benefits out of the way, which player would you rather draft this season — Yoenis Cespedes or Bryce Harper?
For those that are unaware, Cespedes, the 27-year old Cuban defector, signed a 4-year, $36M contract with the Oakland A’s yesterday. We can skip all the talk about how another “mystery team” comes from out of nowhere to sign a guy or how the A’s will end up trading him after two years so someone else can pick up the remainder of the contract. We’re strictly talking about this year and what kind of value the big righty will have in fantasy leagues this season.
If you’ve seen The Showcase video (and withstood the cheesy soundtrack), you have to admit that there’s plenty to like about the guy. Big thick torso, thighs like tree trunks, the guy generates a lot of power in his swing. Based on the footage we’ve seen and watching him perform in the World Baseball Classic, you’d have to think that we’re looking at a guy with atleast 20-25 HR power. Maybe hedge it on the lower side due to the dimensions of his new home and the fact that his swing is a little long right now. Right now I’m guessing a mid .260′s average with a fair number of strikeouts to go along with those 20-odd home runs.
But there’s also a nice, little speed element to his game. The video clocks him at 6.3 seconds to run 60 yards and that’s pretty fast for a guy his size. To be able to put up 15-20 stolen bases would give him a major boost in value. His mobility has kept in in center field in Cuba, but given his size, he seems more likely to slot in better in right field where the A’s certainly have an opening.
Yes, there’s a chance that while making the necessary adjustments to both the major leagues and the U.S. culture, the A’s could start him off in Triple-A. However, with guys like Josh Reddick, Collin Cowgill, Brandon Allen, Jonny Gomes, Michael Taylor, Chris Carter and Kila Ka’aihue cluttering up right field and the DH slot, even the slightest positive from Cespedes this spring is going to give him the added edge. The A’s didn’t invest that kind of money in a guy hitting his peak years just to have him putter around the farm system.
So if he’s got a strong skill set and a solid opportunity with Oakland, how does he stack up with Harper this season in a re-draft league? We’ve got some similar “opportunity” questions as Harper could begin the season in Triple-A as well, depending on how the Nationals want to handle his situation. But he’s also got good power potential, decent speed and actually better plate discipline (solid BB% in the minors) than his Cuban counterpart. He’ll also have to prove himself in camp though if he wants to stick, as his struggles in Double-A last year are on plenty of people’s minds.
Both have a lot of hype. Both have a lot of potential. Personally, I go after Cespedes in a re-draft league first. For one thing, I think the A’s do everything they can to keep him up early while the Nats give more thought to Harper’s free agent clock starting. For another, at 27 years old and having faced a number of these major leaguers in the WBC, I think his adjustment period is much shorter. His ADP is sitting around 194 right now, about a dozen picks ahead of Harper and it could climb a few spots more, but still, in the 16th round of a 12-team league, he could end up quite the bargain.
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Hell of a question. I think your concluding paragraph is spot on in regards to the A’s getting Cespedes in the show quickly. But the Nationals aren’t going to spend too much time futzing about with a Cameron, Ankiel, Bernadina platoon in the outfield, we’re going to see Harper sooner rather than later unless he takes a step backwards (I think he’s a mutant freak, so I consider that unlikely).
At the end of the day, I’m projecting very similar values for the pair.
fwiw, I’m pretty sure Cespedes has a much lower floor.
He still hasn’t mastered AA, and the Nats would get much greater value out of managing his free agency to get an extra year of peak-Harper. I’m unconvinced he would be much better than replacement this year – it’s instructive to see how even some of the greats have done when they played in the bigs as teenagers.
Cespedes and it isn’t really close, because I think Harper should (and will) spend most of the season in the minors.
i agree with your conclusion and would only add that ST performance would impact a lot of drafters opinions. if he goes michael morse/chris davis on ST pitching…he’ll probably be too expensive. if he stinks and looks like he needs time in AAA, he’ll be too expensive for me as well. i guess i’m rooting for him to be very blase but ML-ready?
i don’t think i’ll own harper in any 12 team mixed leagues this year, even if he’s the opening day RF. i feel like there’s someone in every league who is willing to draft him way higher than his ADP.
How do we know he’s not really named Humberto Espinosa and is actually 31 yrs old?
I’m a Nats fan and big time Bryce Harper believer, but regardless of what Davey Johnson says, he will spend some time at AAA (at least – it’s possible if he doesn’t hit well in ST he’ll start in AA) this year, definitely so he doesn’t accrue a service year this season.
Availability is the number one quality a fantasy player can have, and it seems extremely likely that Harper’s availability will be less than Cespedes. Nothing else really matters.
The Oakland A’s just spent $36 million dollars. I think that’s the first time they’ve shelled out any significant amount of money since they signed Eric Chavez long term (I could be wrong but that’s the biggest contract that comes to memory). For a small market team to spend that kind of money, Cespedes is definitely going to start from day one. Unless he’s a complete bust, I’d expect him to put up better numbers just based on the fact he’ll likely be up all season.
Who knows when and if Harper will get the call from the Nats this season? It’s no secret most would agree Harper has the higher ceiling, but for this season in a re-draft league…¡Viva Cespedes!
In a non-keeper league I wouldn’t have either one. I’d most likely be playing in a 12-team mixed league and as Ron Shandler says “I could own Bryce Harper or I could win” in this shallow format.
Non-Keeper Would You Rather Suggestion:
Michael Morse or Paul Konerko?