On Chapman and Strasburg
With Aroldis Chapman inking with the Cincinnati Reds, both of baseball’s biggest pitching prospects have found homes for the 2010 season. Since both Stephen Strasburg and Chapman’s location is known, it makes it much easier to compare the two and evaluate when they should be drafted.
Chapman, a power throwing lefty from Cuba, is still raw. He will need to work on commanding all of his pitches, and no one knows just how long that will take. The Reds hope to fast-track him through the minors, but just what does that mean? Once again, not sure. My best guess is that we’ll see him in August and September, with only a 5% chance he’s up before the All-Star break (barring massive injuries to a huge amount of Reds’ pitchers). I’m really not all that impressed with or excited about Chapman, but many scouts are. Of course, who doesn’t love a lefty who throws hard?
Strasburg, the consensus number one pick of last year’s amateur draft, will likely be up sooner than Chapman. His powerful fastball (with good movement) is complimented by a sharp slider (some scouts say curve, but I see a slider) and changeup. Some scouts have said there may be some major arm injuries in his future, while others say his delivery is just fine. I’ve seen quite a bit of video, and I don’t see anything horribly wrong. He seems to open up a touch too early, but nothing that screams injury to me. I’d suggest he spends the first couple months in the minors, but it looks like the Nationals may let him run wild before that. I doubt he starts the season in the bigs, but he’s probably in the bigs a couple of weeks after he dominates in Double-A.
Both Strasburg and Chapman are going late in drafts (and not at all in a good chunk of drafts) according to MockDraftCentral. Chapman is currently the 70th pitcher off the board (284), with Strasburg as the 73rd pitcher off the board (301). Why is Chapman going so early? Strasburg is more polished and will be in the majors sooner, so I’d much rather have him. Guys like Francisco Liriano, Derek Lowe, Justin Duchscherer, and Brad Penny are going after the two young guns, and I’d rather have all of them. Strasburg is not a bad selection in the slot he is being drafted in, but Chapman is going far too high at this point. If you are in a keeper league, it’s not the worst pick in the world, but I think you should be able to get him later.
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I’m a little confused about Chapman’s contract. Do the Reds control him for 5 years period, or is he still subject to MLB service time rules and arbitration etc?
Strasburg is definitely still subject to MLB service time rules though right?
“is he still subject to MLB service time rules and arbitration etc?”
My understanding is that is the case.
Yes, he is subject to the MLB service times rules.
Hey Zach
Can you elaborate on this: ” I’m really not all that impressed with or excited about Chapman” ?
Sure.
I understand he has a live arm, and I like that. But, he still needs to develop a breaking ball that he can trust. Quite frankly, I don’t even trust him to be able to locate the fastball.
Some compare him to Randy Johnson, but I don’t see it (yet). Reminds me more of Liriano (the bad version), or Oliver Perez.
Honestly, no one has really seen enough of him to make a true judgement one way or the other. I’d like to see more of him, but as of now I’m not as high on him as others tend to be.
I understand that his secondary pitches and control need work. But isn’t that true of a lot of young prospects?
Also, I haven’t heard/read any big concerns about his mechanics. I think he definitely needs some time in the minors to work with the Reds coaches (like Mario Soto). Even a prospect like Strasburg that’s more polished isn’t a lock to do anything.
That said, would you disagree that Chapman has a pretty high ceiling IF he make the needed improvements?
No, I would not disagree. But, I think those improvements are pretty major, and cannot be done on the timeline the Reds seem to be imposing. He needs to spend a full season in the minors, and a full season of winterball before he is MLB ready.
And that’s my big concern as well. Hopefully he isn’t rushed.
Champan’s fastball is already impressive in velocity and command, I have seen him locate it well down in the strike zone and he does this consistently. Everything else is a work however.
I’ve used the exact same comps (Ollie Perez and post-op Liriano) to describe the video I’ve seen of Chapman. I have trouble getting 20+ million excited about a guy whose only skill is to throw upper 90s.
I think the RJ comp is more a guess of his career path than a hint at his ceiling. As you mentioned, he’ll be rushed through the minors which means he’ll get to learn control on the job much as Johnson did. I can’t easily imagine a future where Chapman doesn’t begin to show signs of control until his late 20s/early 30s.
That should read *CAN easily imagine*
Oliver Perez is about right. How about Jesus Colome??
the lefty version of course (Colome).
Any timetable that rushes a young promising pitcher to Dusty Baker seems a bit frightening. A once promising young pitching core has seen Homer Bailey struggle to be relevant, Edinson Volquez heading for TJ and Johnny Cueto’s ceiling dropped a story or two.
Seems this could be one of the worst teams/situations this kid could have gone.
heard Sabean talking about madison baumgardner (sp?) like the 5th starter spot is his to lose…does he crack the top pitching prospects? maybe that was about top prospects not already signed. nevermind.
still, my league doesn’t have spots for guys in the minors (if you draft them, you have to keep them active until they appear in a game). for late upside i do like madison better than either of those two.
His velocity drop last year is scary, and until I hear that it’s back up, I’m staying away.
Oh I still take Brad Penny before him, but if I were going to throw a pick at a completely green unproven starter it would be MB.
Tough to keep perspective on hype at times. Thanks for the post!
id rather draft Dogg Chapman. dude stunk in cuba (1.40 WHIP), he stunk in the WBC, and hes gonna get homer bailey’d in cincy
I read an article that looked into Chapman’s arm slot during pitches. As far as I can remember he threw some of his breaking stuff out of a much lower arm slot (and possibly pitch to pitch). I’ve also read some other Cubans have done this in the past although I don’t know how well its worked out for them.
Either way, to me it screams inconsistency and possibly injury. Especially with Dusty.
Orlando Hernandez came to mind when I read this. Worked well for him but seems hard to master. With different arm slots the guy threw a different curveball every time.
David Cone was famous for throwing “6 pitches” from “7 different arm angles” … and he did throw everything from everywhere …. and did so without repetitive injuries. He also had great balance.
Throwing from a lower arm slot is actually better for your arm than higher. Pedro Martinez would be another example of a guy with a “floating” arm slot. Jose Contreras also comes to mind.
Chapman could, even just theoretically, increase the movement of his pitches by doing so, as well as, increase his deception.
With control being such an issue for him, at this point, a consistent arm slot would be a priority (IMHO).
Are there any projections out on Chapman or Strasburg? And if there are, what are the projections based on?
Hey Homer Bailey came on a little bit at the end of last year. I still think he could end up a solid mid-rotation starter (something similar to a Gil Meche?)…
The Reds really need to fire Dusty Baker and get someone in there with a better track record of developing young pitchers. They have mountains of potential but it will never be realized if ol’ Dusty is allowed to butcher their elbows/shoulders.
Volquez-Cueto-Bailey-Chapman could become a scary starting 4, add that to a young offensive nucleus of Votto & Bruce and Reds fans have something to get excited about…. Just get rid of DUSTY!
pitching vs Pittsburgh 4 times isnt a bad way to look good
The concern with Strasberg is that [1] he’s an inverted W guy (Prior, Reyes), and [2] he rushes (ball/arm is not in the right spot when his lead foot lands). Inverted W means that both elbows elevate to a position higher than his shoulders, and is a concern for shoulder injuries. Don;t confuse “looking smooth” with having good mechanics. Mark Prior was as smooth as they come.
Combine it with being a hard slider guy and there are “concerning aspects” all over the place. That doesn’t mean a career-ender is imminent, only that there are significant warning signs. The thing that works in Strasberg’s favor is that his arm action is inconsistent, meaning he doesn;t always do the inverted W thing, but more of a horizontal W where both elbow stay at shoulder height but draw back toward 1st baseline, instead of toward the sky … much more like Jake Peavy than Mark Prior. That’s a good thing, but still a concern.
With Strasberg, I’m mostly concerned with his, reportedly immature and emotional attitude. I’m curious as to how he’s going to handle not being able to overwhelm everyone with his stuff and face batters that can turn around some of his pitches that aren’t spotted well. I’m also concerned with the lack of work ethic that resulted in his being overweight for much of his career. He only seemed to be committed to being in shape when the #1 draft pick was on the line. I don;t want to see him get all “Bartolo Colon” and have weight become a hindrance to already suspect mechanics.
I look at Chapman and see someone that’s not even as polished as David Price, and Price has even struggled a bit with not having more than a fastball. People have already mentioned Baker’s history with young pitchers, and that would be a big concern.
Rich Harden is an example of another “rusher”, but Harden also opens his hips very early, draws the ball back towards CF/RF (shows the ball to CF), and let’s his glove side swing open. So, basically, he throw’s “all arm”. If Strasberg ‘rushes’ continually and repeats the true inverted W all the time, his shoulder could be screaming rather early, especially when you consider the slider aspect and the velocity with which he throws. So, far all of the similar pitchers I have mentioned have had their careers drastically affected by injuries or are coming back from a major one.
It would be nice if we were able to mechanically compare Strasberg favorable to “great mechanics” guys like Gibson, Clemens, Schilling, Ryan, etc … but w cannot because they are not that similar outside of throwing the ball with the right hand.
I believe Chapman is going higher because he will be pitching in a weaker division and have better offensive potential supporting his efforts.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the keeper league drafts are the ones that are skewing where Strasberg and Chapman are actually going. I would think in a re-draft, they are probably going quite a bit later – especially with the information (or lack thereof) that we have today.