Opening Day Diatribes
A few quick observations from the season’s first full slate of games…
Delmon Young Rides the Pine
It’s probably best not to get too worked up over lineups on the first day of the season, but the erstwhile golden boy of Tampa Bay’s farm system found himself plastered to the Twins’ bench. Granted, Young has been exasperating to watch. He puts the ball on the ground far more than a power threat should, and he swings at anything, really: strikes, balls, curves, sliders, low-flying planes, small animals…he’s basically taken a Vladimir Guerrero-type approach with Wilton Guerrero-like results.
All that being said, Young is still just 23 years of age and holds a career .318/.362/.518 minor league line, that production have come against players several years his senior. The Twins will have to slide four guys (Cuddyer, Kubel, Span and Young) between three slots (the corner outfield and DH). Kubel will take a seat versus lefties, but it’s still a bit disconcerting to see Delmon sat down against a right-hander (Felix Hernandez). Michael Cuddyer might be making a pretty penny, but he’s 30 and holds a career .341 wOBA. Young needs to see every day at-bats.
Elijah Dukes, Justin Upton follow suit
Is Jim Bowden still secretly assailing the Nationals’ decision-making process from afar? I’m not sure how else to explain the absence of Dukes in the starting lineup. He posted a .382 wOBA in 2008, showing secondary skills aplenty and kicking in defensive value to boot. A 24 year-old who might just be your best player, and he’s not guaranteed everyday play. As Dave Cameron put it, “Happy Opening Day, Nationals fans. Hope you weren’t planning on seeing the team’s best player.”
Upton, a 21 year-old wunderkind with even more upside, also found himself drinking Gatorade and flicking sunflower seeds instead of smacking line drives. Upton hit .197 during spring training- I really hope 60 lousy AB’s in March don’t weigh too heavily in Bob Melvin’s consciousness. Upton posted a 107 OPS+ in the majors at an age where most guys are in A-Ball. Choosing Eric Byrnes over that sort of talent just seems masochistic. Scrapaholics Anonymous- the first step is admitting that you have a Byrnes problem…
Drop Lee! Drop Sabathia! Sell! Sell! Sell!
Yeah, don’t do that. Not that you really need the reminder, but don’t let anything that occurs in the next few weeks override years of knowledge acquired about a player. If you want to run your fantasy team like a Jim Kramer, “Mad-Money” style outlet, then be prepared for a John Stewart-like beat down in the standings.
11
I have to admit, I just don’t understand the Eric Byrnes hate that is often prevelanct at fangraphs and rotographs. Especially at rotographs, since Eric Byrnes can be a pretty studly fantasy guy. And even at fangraphs since Byrnes has put up some nice defensive seasons.
Fangraphs:
Byrnes put up 3.4 value wins in 2004, was horrible in 2005, and then put up 3.3 and 3.9 value wins in 2007, before being horrible again in 2008. 2005 and 2008 were both injury-marred seasons and I don’t think its a stretch to say Byrnes is roughly a 3.5 win player when healthy. I think it is fair to toss out his 2008 UZR do to both sample size and injuries limiting his range, and before that he had shown himself to provide +5 to +12 runs defensively in LF, and the ability to survive defensively in CF (+13.2 career UZR/150 in CF). And while he doesn’t walk a ton, his career wOBA is .338. Why do so many people keep saying he is a glorified 4th OF when he provides plus defense and at least average offense? And he isn’t overpaid either, relative to his production.
Rotographs:
People are seriously complaining about Byrnes getting playing time on a rotoblog? I wouldn’t give him playing time over Justin Upton, but I definitely prefer him to the Conor Jackson / Chad Tracy / Mark Reynolds triumverate. Bynres’ last healthy season he hit .286 with 21 HR and 50 SB. And fantasy folks don’t like that he’s getting playing time? WTF? He has always been a very high percentage base stealer, so it was great to see him take advantage of the green light. And he didn’t really have any huge luck factors working in favor either (slightly elevated BABIP relative to his career norm, HR/FB around career norm).
I just don’t get the Byrnes-hating. Don’t get me wrong, I think the D-Backs were foolish to spend $10 million per year on Byrnes when they already had an OF logjam and the result was selling low on Quentin. But that just speaks poorly of Josh Byrnes’ money-handling skills (or owership, which may have forced the move since Eric Byrnes is a fan favorite). But is should hardly be an indictment of Eric Byrnes, who is a very productive real life and fantasy player when healthy.
I agree with you I don’t understand the Eric Byrnes hate that people have. I agree that Justin Upton should be starting but Eric Byrnes should be too. Conor Jackson has no business being in the outfield, either start him at 1st or put him on the bench.
Well, from a batting standpoint, I think Jackson has more upside than Byrnes and is actually already better than Byrnes.
http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=5997&playerid2=905&playerid3=&position=1B&page=8&type=full
If they’re going to let Byrnes run for 50 SB again, then that’s a completely different story when it comes to fantasy.
MLB wise though… Jackson was very good in the OF last year and he’s a better offensive player, so not sure why you’d take Byrnes over him. Byrnes when healthy should have a starting spot on some team, but I don’t think that’s the case in Arizona.
“he’s basically taken a Vladimir Guerrero-type approach with Wilton Guerrero-like results.”
can i use that one myself?
I’m a DBacks fan and I have zero confidence in Byrnes. I can’t remember the last good at bat of his I’ve seen.
He takes ridiculous swings at everything and it’s either a popout or a strikeout. I’m too lazy to look up everything, but I’m guessing at least 50% of his at bats end up with either an IFF, a short fly or a K. He was actually praised by the announcers for driving in a run with a popup to short center the other day, but that’s a matter for another discussion.
Now, Upton will struggle at times, and fans are expecting Ken Griffey III, but there’s no reason to sit him for Byrnes.
As for Jackson, as long as he doesn’t change his approach (he talked last year about being more aggressive, talking about taking more swings as if a .400 OBP was a bad thing) he’s a much better player than Byrnes, and UZR says he plays a good LF.
And unless Byrnes can play 3rd base, Reynolds has nothing to do with this discussion.
Jackson’s sample size for LF defense is pretty small, so I wouldn’t be fitting him for a gold glove quite yet. As a guy with limited athleticism who was an average defender at 1st, you have to wonder if his plus defense holds up over the long haul.
Byrnes has proven to be a good defender in LF and a very good defender in CF when healthy.
But the real question isn’t Byrnes versus Upton or Jackson, but Byrnes versus Tracy against LHP and Byrnes versus Reynolds against RHP. Byrnes is a much, much better defender and baserunner than both Tracy and Reynolds. Over the last 3 years, Byrnes has been a much better hitter versus LHP than Tracy. Over the same time, he has been nearly identical to Reynolds. So really, based on the past 3 years, if the D-Backs want the best team on the field, Tracy and Reynolds should be a 3B platoon, with Jackson at 1B and Byrnes in LF.