O’s Get Slice of Pie; Will Cubs Eat Crow?
When the Chicago Cubs inked talented-but-nomadic outfielder Milton Bradley to a three-year, $30 million deal earlier this month, the writing was on the wall for Felix Pie. The soon-to-be 24 year-old was ranked by Baseball America as Chicago’s best prospect in both 2006 and 2007, but it seemed as though the organization had soured on the Dominican Republic native. Despite a fairly impressive minor league dossier (Pie is a career .299/.353/.470 hitter) and above-average range, Felix evidently made a bad impression in two stale cups of coffee with the Cubbies in ’07 and ’08: in 260 career PA, the lanky lefty hit .223/.284/.331.
With Pie out of minor league options and the Cubs looking for some additional pitching depth, the North Siders have reportedly shipped their erstwhile top prospect to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for 25 year-old lefty Garrett Olson and A-Ball righty Henry Williamson. The merits of this deal from Chicago’s standpoint can certainly be debated- Olson has endured quite the rough introduction to the majors as well, with a 5.28 FIP in 165 innings. His work in the minors (8.91 K/9, 2.93 BB/9) suggests he’s capable of better. However, as a finesse, fly-ball starter, it’s difficult to project Olson as more than a back-end starter. Will the Cubs come to regret letting their former star pupil leave town for a B-level pitching prospect?
Pie is coming off of just a fair season at AAA Iowa, having batted .287/.336/.466 in 368 PA. His walk rate has never been especially high (6.4 BB% in ’08, 8.2% career), but the 6-2, 170 pounder did display decent pop (.179 ISO) and only struck out 16.1% of the time. The previous season, he scorched the corn fields to the tune of .362/.410/.563 in 250 PA. That showing was surely aided by a ridiculous .411 BABIP, but the line serves to show that that it wasn’t all that long ago that Pie was raking and looking like a future pillar for the Cubs.
So, Pie isn’t coming off of a great season, but he still held his own in AAA as a 23 year-old at an up-the-middle position. But with the rangy Adam Jones patrolling center field (+8.5 UZR/150 during the ’08 season) and the terminally underrated Nick Markakis holding down right field, Pie might head to the bench for the time being and perhaps take over for left fielder Luke Scott at some point. Another option allows the O’s to move Scott to DH and insert Pie in left on Opening Day. Here’s what Rotoworld had to say about Pie playing left field in Baltimore:
“Not yet 24 years old, Pie was a nice target as a true center fielder with power and speed, but the Orioles are an odd fit with Adam Jones already patrolling center. Pie is for left field, but he doesn’t offer nearly enough offensively to carry the position.”
Now, Rotoworld is a tremendous website and offers a level of insight that few others match. However, I have to take issue with this statement, and others like it that I have seen over the winter. I think that there’s a sort of misconception with players like Pie, who might not at first blush appear capable of “carrying” a corner outfield position.
Let’s call it the “Randy Winn Effect.” Winn, as you probably know, is the right fielder for the San Francisco Giants. Upon first glance, he might appear to be ill-suited for a corner outfield spot- after all, he has slugged just .445 and .426 over the past two seasons. However, Winn offers something that few corner outfielders provide: plus defense. Winn has posted UZR/150 figures of 11.9 in 2007 and 18.9 in 2008. While his bat might be average by positional standards, he adds a significant amount of additional value with the leather compared to his plodding peers. In fact, Winn ranked 5th among all right fielders in Win Values this past season, with 4.6. While that was a high-water mark, Winn has been worth an average of 2.9 wins over the past three seasons.
Which brings us back to Pie. Sure, Pie’s offensive output at this point in his career might look ordinary, perhaps even somewhat below average for a corner outfielder. However, one has to consider defense as part of the equation. Pie might not hit like some of the more thunderous bats that typify a corner position, but his level of defensive ability figures to be significantly higher than most of his peers. Those additional runs that he saves in the field count- he adds value in an area where most of his contemporaries harm theirs. You might hear an analyst say that a player like Pie is “wasted” in a corner spot. That’s just not true- the offensive standard might be higher in left field than in center, but Pie’s range saves runs compared to the average left fielder. Those runs count, too.
Let’s give Pie a hypothetical 600 PA for the Orioles in 2009. CHONE, a projection system that incorporates minor league and major league data, pegs Pie for a .333 wOBA, just about dead-on average. Given his sturdy minor league record, that seems reasonable. Maybe a tad optimistic in his first crack at regular playing time, but let’s stick with it for now.
With a .333 wOBA, Pie projects to contribute about 0 runs above average with the bat. Pie has solid scouting reports afield and has done nice work in a small number of innings for the Cubs. As a left fielder, let’s say that Pie is a +7.5 run fielder. Adding in the positional adjustment (-7.5 runs per 162 games) and adjusting for replacement level (+20 runs), Pie projects to be worth a little north of 2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for the O’s. For comparison, newly-signed Phillie Raul Ibanez was worth 2.2 WAR for the Mariners in 2008, and free agent Adam Dunn was worth 1.8 WAR. Both of those guys are better hitters than Pie, but Ibanez and Dunn punt so much of their value with the leather that the overall level of value between the three projects to be negligible.
While Felix Pie’s stock might have taken somewhat of a hit with a rough introduction to the big leagues, he will play the entire 2009 season as a 24 year-old, retains some promise with the bat and projects to be a significantly better fielder than his peers in a corner outfield spot. His contribution to the O’s might not pop out at one the way that a monstrous batting line does, but Pie’s combination of decent hitting and slick glove work makes him yet another interesting position player for an organization that already houses Markakis, Jones and catcher Matt Wieters. Pie is worth a look in deeper leagues and should aid a mediocre Baltimore rotation in the immediate future. Beyond that, the outlook could be rosier if Pie takes flight with his tether now removed by the O’s.
Chicago’s loss is the Baltimore’s gain: long-term, Pie should provide decent numbers with the stick while teaming with Markakis and Jones to form an athletic, run-saving outfield trio. When pitching prospects like Christopher Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz break into the big leagues, they’ll be flanked by three rangy outfielders who will cover the gaps with ease.
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“Pie might head back to AAA for the time being ”
Dude – he’s just as out of options with Baltimore as he was with Chicago. He’s not going down to the minors.
Meant to say bench there- thanks for catching that.
No you didn’t. Why is it so hard for people to admit such trivial mistakes? Really, do you think we’re going to look at you differently because you didn’t know Pie was out of options? I didn’t know he was out of options. There’s a ton of stuff to stay on top of in this sport and I don’t blame you for Pie’s minor league options not being one of your top priorities. Is it really that difficult to say “I was wrong” instead of insulting our intelligence by transparently trying to pass it off as a typo?
Frank,
Considering that I said early on in the article “with Pie out of minor league options” (see paragraph 2), yes, I did know that he was out of options. I’m not going to be argumentative about so (as you say) trivial a point. I appreciate that you visit this site and have taken the time to read the article, but I think it would be best if we could all comment on the content as opposed to semantics. The last thing I ever try to do is insult the intelligence of the readers, many of whom have every bit the understanding of the sport that the writers do. And really, if I were trying to cover my behind, wouldn’t I have just deleted the first comment, edited my post and been done with it?
As a Cubs fan I am really irritated with the treatment of our best prospects. Soto was taken along quickly because he hit well in his cup of coffee, but too often Cubs brass seems to completely dismiss anyone who doesn’t slug .500 in the first 150 ABs.
Now we have Joey Gathright off the bench. He isn’t going to outproduce Pie and he doesn’t have any potential upside. We lost Sean Gallagher and Eric Patterson in favor of 75 innings of Rich Harden (or less) and Aaron Miles.
How does this make the Cubs better? I for one would prefer 190 innings of Sean Gallagher to 75 innings of Rich Harden, and I can’t see Aaron Miles really providing more production than Patterson. In the meantime, I see a Cubs team that is rapidly aging and declining in production. If they don’t win it all soon, the door is quickly going to slam shut.
I agree, Ed. I think that it’s been a thoroughly uninspiring offseason for the Cubs:
- trading 6 years of team control over Jose Ceda for Kevin Gregg
- not offering arbitration to Kerry Wood (why not? if he accepts, you have a good reliever under contract for one year, a good thing given Wood’s injury history, and if he signs elsewhere you get 2 draft picks)
- trading Mark DeRosa for 3 B/B- pitching prospects.
- signing Aaron Miles (basically a utility middle infielder who doesn’t really play shortstop)
and now trading Pie. I wouldn’t quibble too much with the Bradley signing, nor do I think Marquis will be terribly missed. But, there are quite a few head scratchers on that list.
Dave,
Not to make it any worse, but most would agree that the prospects from DeRosa were not close to B or B- prospects.
Josh,
Good point- that’s actually an optimistic account of that trade. Perhaps Stevens becomes a middle reliever, maybe Gaub is healthy and his velocity returns…certainly no guarantees there.
Dave,
What’s your take on the impact of this on Riemold? I thought he had an ETA of late ’09/’10 to the bigs.
As an Orioles fan, I think Olson underperformed last season, but his true upside isn’t that high. In about 2 or 3 years, if he stays healthy, I doubt he will be anything more than a +2 win pitcher – that’s Jason Marquis territory. Pie’s pessimistic projection in that same time period is +2 wins, and he could easily reach (as David said) Randy Winn type numbers.
Meanwhile Pie could be our starting LF for the next 4 years. Even though he’s out of options, the fact that he can play all 3 outfield positions at a good level gives him an edge over Montanez and Riemold – Riemold in particular should start out at AAA. Behind those three, we don’t really have any serviceable outfield prospects above A ball. In 2010, our outfielders should be Pie/Jones/Markakis with two of Montanez/Riemold/Scott (Scott might be traded or moved to 1B). I think that will not compare unfavorably to the Rays’ excellent 2008 outfield of Crawford/Upton/Gross.
My instinct is that this trade doesn’t help the Cubs in the long term either, and offers only marginal improvement in the short term. It doesn’t help their outfield at all (Gathright isn’t better than Pie in the short or long term), and it only helps their pitching in the short term, and even then – wouldn’t Chad Gaudin be a better starting option than Olson? Is Olson even good enough to make the bullpen on Opening Day?
Why exactly does Pie UZR or Winns UZR add to their fantasy value? I understand why it is important to both baseball and the site. But to take a shot at rotoworld when they are clearly correct and you are so wrong is kind of funny. Sure he is pluse defender but this is a Fantasy blog allegedley. And well he is below average right now in all standard 5×5 cats. Hence the Rotoworld comment.
Mike,
it matters both in real and fantasy baseball in that with Pie, Jones and Markakis, a larger percentage of balls put in play are going to be converted into outs. This certainly helps Orioles pitchers, particularly their batch of promising arms not all that far away from Camden Yards. I that that’s worth considering. It might not add to Pie’s fantasy value per se, but it does add value to his club and aids the pitchers on the mound for Baltimore as an extension. Context is extremely important in baseball- knowing that a guy like Jeremy Guthrie is flanked by three excellent fielders might be the difference between drafting him or not. Considering defense as part of the equation might be a little more abstract, but I think it’s important, and certainly more interesting than repeating things we already know. I could say “hey, Albert Pujols is good”, but is that interesting?
As for the rotoworld point, I stand by it. To the best of my knowledge, there aren’t many leagues that differentiate between particular outfield positions; all outfielders are thrown into the same cluster. Thus, the comment from rotoworld was likely referring to overall value, much like I was (if you read it closely, it mentions defense too).
James,
I think the door may still be open for Reimold at the DH slot down the line. He is an interesting bat, but perhaps the O’s just aren’t counting on him because of his extensive injury history.
You can stand by it all you want. And nice try with the defense value added, however this was about Pie, as was Rotoworlds comments. He is not good enough to start on any team in 10 team league, probably not feeling good in a 12 team league either. He has slightly value in a standard roto league for couting stats. But do you want him head to head? And while I appreciated your comments on “albert is good” you could try and do something insightful. I dunno maybe explain why ppl are fools for taking Longo when Davis is just as good this yr and is going 4 rounds later. Or maybe why Cliff Lee is more legit then ppl think? Maybe you could try that but again please keep the smart ass comments about Pujols coming and please keep writing articles about OF’s and the defensive value they add. Yup, take on rotoworld. Very good job by you.
Why all the hostility? Are you bitter because your baseball blog has an Alexa traffic ranking of 23,558,355 and hasn’t had a single comment since May 17 of last year? You don’t need to tear down others to build yourself up.
I have no hostility and this has nothing to do with my “blog”. What I wanted to know was what value this added for a fantasy article. He got testy in the respone. Or did you miss the Pujols comment and him basically implying I wasnt looking in context.
Okay, just making sure this had nothing to do with any resentment over your blog which has gotten exactly three comments by people other than you since its December 2007 inception despite five dozen posts. Personally I would feel upset for wasting so much time on something that nobody cares about, but I’m glad it hasn’t affected you like that.
Cheers.
Jarvis: Again I guess that was humor. But again the blog is something I do for fun, also I win leagues like NFBC and CBS leagues. I also got into the Dynasty challenge over at mlbfrontoffice.com. So, again while you might see it as a “waste” I see it as I must no something. And the something here is that this article contributed nothing but poor fantasy advice for Pie. I am not saying the guy doesnt know anything, he writes here and Driveline I believe. So he must know somehting. I just think he was wrong here. You on the other hand took the time to search a bunch a stuff about my free blog. Thanks for the hits buddy, feel free to leave a comment.
Any time. Maybe this will push you into the top twenty million.
I searched for Mike Ketchen’s blog, and all I came up with was some guy named Michael Kitchen. Anyway, I see it kind of from both angles. It was an interesting article, and I honestly don’t think it needed to actually bring the analysis back to fantasy in the article to be fantasy relevant.
That being said, I see Mike’s point that Rotoworld was probably talking about his bat not being strong enough for the the fantasy right field position, and most leagues I know of don’t use UZR and Win values.
I am considering Pie for a spot on my 20-team Roto roster, but that will obviously be a late-round flyer kind of thing, not counting on him for any kind of useful production.
From a fantasy standpoint, I noticed that his sb/cs ratios have almost always been pretty horrible. Do you think he still has time to improve in that area? Will his speed even be utilized by the Orioles if they see that he is not a good base stealer? If not, his value plummets even further. A 10-15 hr/20 stolen base guy has a good deal of value, but if the Orioles don’t give him the green light, a 10-15 hr corner outfielder is pretty much fantasy irrelevant in all leagues.
As an Os fan, and baseball fan in general, I thoroughly enjoyed the read. Most of my online baseball time is devoted to fantasy prep in an effort to win cake and I appreciate this site for the conglomeration of writers and usually insightful analysis (one or two regular contributors aside). Perhaps I’m in the minority, but mixed leagues hold little to no attraction for me unless they are approaching 20 team leagues. So IMO, this type of analysis provides a great deal of value because as FOs become more acclimated to advanced metrics, and specifically the contribution of defense to expected wins, playing time is allocated accordingly.
David Golebiewski’s article enhances not only my valuation of potential O’s starters, but makes clear that an ill-timed slump to start the year will not cause Trembley to banish Pie to the bench and relegate him to a defensive sub/pinch runner. Considering the league wide drop in HRs over the past couple of years, Pie’s 10-15 HR potential will not put him that far behind an AL only average fantasy OF. Substantial playing time, and the inherent counting stats that result, will have significant value to any AL team, at the right price of course. This article illuminates the likelihood Pie will receive the bulk of playing time in LF this year.
Also, it seems the more regular ABs a player receives, the more he will be on base. And the more he is on base, the better read he gets on pitchers’ moves to first and their timing to the plate. Considering Posada will probably see time behind the dish in NY and Varitek in Boston, and the fact the Os were aggressive on the bases last year and will need to incorporate that aspect of the game into their offensive arsenal this year, expect Pie to hit the 15-20 SB mark with a good chance to top 20.
All of the previous comments regarding Pie and his value to AL fantasy rosters are subject to the disclaimer that he may start 0-40 and force Trembley’s hand regardless. Thank goodness Spring is almost here and ST games have begun, some folks are getting testy out there. Good luck all, I love the MLB network!
Hey, nice tips. Perhaps I’ll buy a bottle of beer to the man from that chat who told me to visit your site :)
Traffic exchange is an example of a way to get noticed also. Not sure how many people use them but they still work.
From my point of view, it does not matter at all.