Hunter Pence’s Sliding Production
The Houston Astros farm system has devolved into something of a wasteland in recent years. In an effort to infuse as much talent as possible into the major league roster, the Astros have been rather frugal in the amateur draft and the international player market. Surrendering first and second-round picks and then failing to sign the club’s third and fourth-rounders in 2007 certainly did not help matters, either. In selling long-term relevance for short-term mediocrity, Houston has compiled a core of thirty-something players that posted a 77-84 Pythagorean Record this past season.
One product of Houston’s barren player development outlet that figured to bear fruit was Hunter Pence. Plucked out of the University of Texas-Arlington in the 2nd round of the 2004 draft, Pence quickly established himself as Houston’s most advanced batting prospect. The gangly 6-4, 210 pounder compiled an impressive .303/.376/.554 minor league line, drawing walks at a healthy clip (11.7 BB%) while keeping his strikeouts in check (19.2 K%). Rated by Baseball America as Houston’s brightest prospect, Pence made his debut in 2007 at the age of 24.
Pence’s first taste of the big leagues looked like a smashing success, as he raked to the tune of .322/.360/.539, bopping 17 home runs and posting a .217 Isolated Power (ISO) number. His 2.16 WPA/LI ranked in the top 20 among all outfielders. There were some cracks in the armor, however, as Pence’s 5.4 BB% left something to be desired and his Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) was an astronomical .378. Given his 19.4% line drive rate (LD%), his expected BABIP was much lower, at .314. Taking some of those extra duck snorts out of Pence’s line gives him a much less impressive .258/.296/.472 showing.
Perhaps we should have known that Pence would be in for a down season in 2008. After all, how many all-star star seasons start with a guy running straight through a glass door? Pence came pretty close to matching his adjusted 2007 line, batting .269/.318/.466. His walk rate improved ever so slightly (6.3 BB%) and his strikeout rate matched his 2007 mark (20.8%), but he didn’t have near the same good fortune on balls in play (.303 BABIP). And, troublingly, Pence failed to hit the ball with authority, posting a feeble 13.9 LD%. That figure ranked dead-last among all qualified batters. Pence’s WPA/LI fell over two wins, to -0.03.
Though Pence ostensibly improved his plate discipline, the underlying numbers suggest that he actually took a slight step backward. His Outside Swing Percentage (O-Swing%) climbed from 29.8% in ‘07 to 31.1%, and his percentage of pitches swung at within the strike zone (Z-Swing%) fell from 75.3% to 71.5%. Swinging at more balls and taking more strikes: that’s a recipe for quick outs.
Pitchers are well aware of Pence’s proclivity to expand his strike zone. The 25 year-old saw the lowest percentage of fastballs in the majors, getting a heater just 49.8% of the time in 2008. Instead of giving him something straight, most hurlers fed Pence a steady diet of sliders, hoping to coax a misguided swing out of him. Pence got a slider 28.3% of the time in 2008, also the highest rate in the majors and nearly four percent higher than second-place Dan Uggla (24.7%). As the scouting reports began to circulate, pitchers noticed Pence’s tendency to chase the hard breaking ball and exploited it.
Pitchers have clearly found a weakness in Pence’s approach, and will continue to throw sliders aplenty until he proves that he can show restraint and avoid the temptation to go fishing outside of the strike zone. If Pence wants to improve his sliding production, he’s going to have to lay off of the slider (and avoid those tricky sliding doors, of course).
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David, there is one pretty important thing you ignored in this article: Pence’s second half. Let’s compare the two. Since MLB.com doesn’t have BABIP as a stat, I can’t know if his went up or not, but that wouldn’t be the whole story anyway.
Here is his first half:
.263/.304/.429. That is pretty paltry. He walked 21 times in 378 plate appearances.
Here is his second half:
.277/.338/.521. There’s an improved Pence. Yes, the average was not the .322 we saw in 2007, but the BB% was up a full 2% from the second half, and his slugging% went up nearly 100 points, definitely not an average-fed inflation (MLB.com doesn’t have ISO either). Wouldn’t it be safe to say that Pence has already improved his once sliding production?
correction: the BB% was up a full 2% from the FIRST half
Jim,
Pence was considerably better in the second half, but we still have to evaluate his season as a whole. I suppose one could theorize that Pence made sweeping changes, but there are reasons to doubt the predictive value of big swings in performance between the first and second halves of a season:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/do_first_half_second_half_splits_mean_anything/
His first half was abnormally poor, his second half abnormally good. Combined, he posted a line rather similar to his adjusted 2007 performance.
That article is good and fine, but Pence is a young player who has the potential to show improvement. I bet you anything that most of those 6,000 data points were established players who simply didn’t bring torrid second halves into the next season, not young players with plenty of room for improvement. Power surges in the second half are one thing, but BB % jumps, especially in a young hitter, are another. Because we haven’t yet established what the norm for Pence is, I don’t know how you can say his second half was simply an abnormally good performance and that he actually hasn’t improved at all.
Jim,
I didn’t say he showed zero improvement. I think it’s plausible that second half improvements mean more for young players who still have development time remaining. But we also have to keep in mind what he did in the first half, and cannot throw out 382 PA of performance and just focus on the last 260 PA, concluding that this is his new standard of performance.
The purpose of the article is certainly not to bury Pence, but simply to point out that there are some negative indicators that need to be improved upon.
Using some of the great features on this site, we can break down the components that went into Pence’s modest improvement in walk rate during the second half:
O-Swing%, July: 28%
O-Swing%, August: 39.5%
O-Swing%, Sept./Oct: 25.6%
Perhaps Sept./Oct. is a harbinger of things to come, but averaged together, those months look pretty similar to April-June:
April: 33.1%
May: 27.8%
June: 31.5%
If you weigh these numbers based on PA, you get:
April-June: 30.72%
July-Oct.: 31.35%
He did hit the ball with more authority, and perhaps that will continue. But I stand by the main point of the article: the plate discipline needs to improve.
Thanks for your reading and input!
I think the article is pretty bang on. I am not excited about Pence at all, I never was. Scouts have always scoffed at his hitting mechanics, even while naming him a potential star. I don’t like the long term prospects of Pence, let alone for the coming season. Too many K’s, not enough BB’s. Nearly the same rates as a Ryan Braun without the power upside.
Yes I guess I’m arguing kind of a technicality. I do think he needs to improve, but I think he is already in the process, not on a downward slide. There are many ifs to his game….the extremely high ground ball rate and the miniscule LD%. He was among the league leaders in infield hits, so his average probably should have been even lower than it was. The second half is encouraging me, but I guess I won’t put too much weight on it.
On a different note, both Bill James and Marcel have him hitting .290. With all the question marks surrounding him, don’t you think those projections are pretty lofty?
Very lofty indeed.
I don’t think I’d read too much into the Marcel batting average. Marcel is surprisingly accurate for a system that basically takes 3-year data and regresses it (with Pence, 2 years), but in Pence’s case, his 2007 BA is kind of skewing things. His BA should have been in the .260 range in 2007, but the high BABIP pushed him all the way over .320.
Say we weighted Pence’s .269 average from 2008 as 60% of his projection, and his .322 average from 2007 as 40% of the projection, we’d get an estimated BA of .290 on the nose.
If we “clean up” a little bit and adjust his 2007 BA using the same weighting system…
.269 (.6) + .258 (.4) = .265
..you get an estimated BA of .265
BBref lists BABIP on splits and Pence had a .300 mark in the first half and a .301 average in the second half.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=pencehu01&year=2008
I understand the Marcel “skewed average” argument, but why does Bill James have him at .294-29-100? I must admit my ignorance in the exact way Bill calculates his projections, but to ask an obscenely stupid question, doesn’t he know these stats? Shouldn’t he have accounted for this in his calcs? Or has Bill taken the next step, and he can now predict the future, seeing Pence adjust to laying off the slider?
Seriously, the Bill James projection has me concerned that cutting Pence loose may be a mistake. Any more reassurance out there that this is the right thing to do?
I may be a bit biased as I am a big Astros fan and although I do keep up with stats and use several metrics in evaluating current and projected value, from a fan’s perspective I believe Hunter will improve with the ‘09 season. I know, typical from a fan wanting his player to perform. However, let me assure you this wasn’t the case last June. (He looked lost)
In several interviews with Hunter he talks about the diet of sliders in the bigs versus the minors and realizes he has to adjust. He mentions he knows it will take time to adapt, but it will happen. Sean Berry (Hitting coach) mentioned about specific adjustments in Hunters mechanics around August and an improved approach at the plate. Now, I know this can mean anything (or nothing) but watching him at bat the last few months of the season there was an obvious difference. He took more pitches and ended up with more BB’s fewer K’s and more hard hit balls. His slg% sky rocketed in September and 1/2 his hits were for extra bases. He looks alot more confident at the plate, and has the type of mentality that leads me to beleive he is determined to adapt. Keep in mind Hunter has never really “not hit” he has always found a way and I believe the Big’s will be his biggest test but one I’d bet he can pass.