Peter Bourjos, Sleeper?
Despite all the mainstream praise of his defense, Torii Hunter finally shifted to a corner outfield spot last season, and did so in deference to a rookie. Peter Bourjos, a former tenth round pick, usurped Hunter in center, playing the position on an everyday basis after coming up in early-August. Our own Marc Hulet ranked Bourjos as the Angels’ fourth best prospect before the 2010 season while Baseball America had him second. Both parties agreed that he had the speed to steal a hefty number of bases on an annual basis, and that his power is more towards the gaps than over-the-fence (.159 ISO in the minors). The part about his excellent centerfield defense isn’t relevant to our interests, since we’re going to look at his 2011 fantasy value.
Unsurprisingly, Bourjos was a bit overmatched after coming up, hitting just .204/.237/.381 with six homers in 193 plate appearances. That’s not uncommon for young players, and 193 PA is hardly anything to get worked up over. Especially since he was a 23-year-old in a division with a lot of really, really good pitching. Bourjos did show off some of that speed, swiping ten bases with the Halos including five bags in his last 13 games. His minor league resume is impressive and followed a fairly typical development plan.
Bourjos’ breakout season came at hitter friendly Rancho Cucamonga in 2008, when he hit .295/.326/.444 with nine homers, ten triples, and 50 steals. He moved up to Double-A in 2009 and hit .284/.354/.423 with six homers, 14 triples, and 32 steals while battling a wrist ligament issue that required offseason surgery. A strong recovery led to a .314/.364/.498 effort in Triple-A this past summer, including 13 homers, 12 triples, and 27 steals in 102 games before the call-up.
To get an idea of what we could be in store for in 2011, let’s look at the three projection systems…
Fans: .273/.320/.428, 62 R, 12 HR, 68 RBI, 32 SB, 505 PA
Bill James: .260/.305/.392, 39 R, 6 HR, 26 RBI, 19 SB, 281 PA
ZiPS: .259/.300/.401, 89 R, 13 HR, 55 RBI, 35 SB, 606 PA
Clearly, if Bourjos is going to provide value to your fantasy team, two things have to happen: he’s got to play every single day, and he has to get on base enough to use his legs. He’s not going to hit you a ton of homers nor drive in runs, so we’re looking at a speed guy that hopefully won’t kill your AVG.
In some ways, Bourjos is like Brett Gardner-lite with regards to expected fantasy production. The Yankee outfielder stole 47 bags with a respectable .277 AVG last season (.383 OBP for you OBP-leaguers), and he also chipped in 97 runs scored thanks to the lineup around him. Bourjos will likely be a notch below that in 2011, say 30-35 steals, an average in the .260′s, and 60-70 runs scored in the most likely scenario. Bourjos has considerably more power (he hit 19 total homers in 2010, Gardner has 17 total homers in his five-plus year career) but not the same on-base skills (77 uIBB over the last two years, Gardner drew 78 in 2010 alone), so it’s not a great comparison beyond the steals and AVG.
Fantasy owners aren’t going to reap the rewards of Bourjos’ biggest asset, that great defense. He’s a nice upside play for a bench spot in standard leagues and perhaps as much as a third outfield option in deeper mixed leagues or AL-only circuits, but make no mistake, it’s very risky. Bourjos could just as easily find himself back in the minors just as he could end up hitting leadoff on a full-time basis, so I simply wouldn’t count on him out to a productive member of my roster out of the gate. I’ll take the safe route here before jumping on him should the production be there in April.
Click here to submit your fan projection for Bourjos.
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Bourjos’s defense has no bearing on his fantasy value directly, but does affect his chances for playing time. Last year, despite hitting below the Mendoza line for most of the time he was up,Mike Scioscia played him every day and moved an once elite CF to RF. This is nothing new with Scioscia – he’s done the same with Jeff Mathis. So when you look at Bourjos’s total ability – the extra base power, the speed, and the instant Gold Glove defense, it’s hard to see him not breaking camp as the starting CF.
I think this is one of those articles where MLB video could really help for fans who have not seen a lot of Bourjos. Here is one of his homers last season: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=12623553. There are many others there linked from his profile page, and the other video I think is instructive is the one off NIemann in Tampa Bay. Decent high fastball that he just crushed, Crawford didn’t even move. This kid has a ton of bat speed, great hand-eye coordination, and is really strong. He reminds me so much of Drew Stubbs, not because they are white, but because they’re bodies are really similar and they both have ugly swings that work for them. I actually like the way Bourjos’s swing works more than Stubbs. I see no reason why he’s not 20+ homers, if not this year, then by next. When Trout arrives that is going to be one incredible OF.
i’d like to think he could at least get 10 if not 15 home runs this year, plus maybe 30-40 sb this year. the question is his avg
I was completely unaware of Bourjous until this post. His OBP might keep him off my roster for the time being but I can’t argue with the rest of his potential. This is clearly a name worth following. Thanks!
Also important, is he expected to (or at least have a shot) to bat somewhere at the top of the lineup?
he’ll either bat 1st or 9th. 44 abs as #1 137 as #9
With the ugly projected OBP and failure to draw walks I’d imagine 9th
Considering the manager he plays for, I would say he will probably hit second.
Not anymore!
http://ducksonthepondkid.wordpress.com/2011/01/22/so-whats-the-deal-with-the-vernon-wells-mike-napoli-deal/
not after this deal
i like where your head’s at, though
i wrote a similar piece
http://ducksonthepondkid.wordpress.com/2011/01/11/searching-for-stubbs-peter-bourjos/
Looks like it could be Wells-Bourjos-Hunter, left to right
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2011/01/vernon-wells-angels-blue-jays-trade-napoli-rivera-bourjos-hunter.html
Let’s not forget either, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was a ridiculously low .228, well below league average.
I’m expecting him to be in CF every day and he should wind up with a line similar to this: .275/.335/.440 with 15 HR, 10 triples, 40 SB.
His LD% was also just below 10%, which is also way below average, and his control of the strike zone was pretty awful. While I would expect some improvement in the latter, expecting a .275 BA and .335 OBP is overly optimistic.
The angels season is solely dependent on Bourjos’ ability so he will get a chance to play everyday unless he pulls a Brandon Wood and proves he can not handle it. Watching his skill set last season there is no reason for him not to be a good sleeper in fantasy leagues particularly in for teams in roto leagues looking for SB’s late in their drafts. However IF the angels feel the need to bench/ send him back down then the trade for Wells gives them a back up plan that would bring Abreu back to LF.
swing-wise he reminds me A LOT of Hunter Pence. they both have quick semi-awkward sings that are more shoulders and wrist then hips. If only he can put up similar numbers.
He’s not nearly as big as Pence, but he’s a better defender, smarter and faster. I do find the comparison interesting though.
yeah, he’d have to really flop to lose PT. I don’t think Wells’ presence changes anything- LAA was dying to get Rivera and Abreu off the field.
does trout spend most of the year at AAA? cup of coffee at most?
Yes