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Phillies summon Domonic Brown

Shane Victorino hit the disabled list earlier today with a strained abdominal muscle suffered when he dove back into first base last night, so now the Phillies are replacing him with the best prospect in baseball: outfielder Domonic Brown. Most of us expected Brown to get the call once the team traded Jayson Werth, but Victorino’s injury makes such a deal unlikely. Werth will instead shift to center to take over for the Flyin Hawaiian, and Brown will assume everyday rightfield duties. He’s in the lineup tonight, batting sixth.

Both Baseball America and Keith Law ranked Brown as the game’s best prospect at midseason, and with good reason. The 607th overall pick in the 2006 started his career as a tall and lanky 18-year-old that oozed athleticism but needed to learn how to convert his physical gifts into baseball skills. Brown has done that and then some, improving his performance each year of his career and with each climb up the ladder. Here’s his progression, using basic triple-slash stats:

2006: .214/.292/.265 in rookie ball
2007: .299/.363/.415 in mostly short season ball
2008: .291/.382/.417 in Low-A
2009: .299/.377/.504 with ~60% of his PA in High-A and ~40% in Double-A
2010: .327/.391/.589 with ~70% of his PA in Double-A and ~30% in Triple-A

“A free swinger as an amateur, Brown has developed a solid eye at the plate and recognizes pitches well,” said the BA gang when they ranked him the game’s 15th best prospect before the season. “The biggest question on Brown’s upside revolves around how much power he’ll develop. Some Double-A Eastern League observers thought his power would be average at best and would limit him to hitting at the top of the lineup, rather than being a middle-of-the-lineup factor.” KLaw wasn’t as skeptical about his pop, saying Brown “has 30-plus homer potential” when he ranked him the 14th best prospect in baseball before the season. As you can see above, Brown has increased his ISO’s from .126 to .205 to .262 in each of the last three seasons, so the power is definitely coming.

The Phillies promoted their best prospect to Triple-A for the first time this season after he hit .318/.391/.602 at Double-A Reading in the first half, and the 22-year-old has hit .346/.390/.561 in 118 plate appearances since the move. His MLE sits at .289/.320/.456 this season (according to MinorLeagueSplits.com), though CHONE was a bit more pessimistic before the season, predicting a .248/.348/.303 line. I’d definitely expect more of the former, especially playing regularly in Citizen’s Bank Park. He’ll even steal some bases, averaging close to 25 SB per 500 plate appearances in his minor league life.

Brown has exhibited a bit of a platoon split in each season of his career except 2008, but that appears to be an outlier at this point. Generally speaking, it’s about a 100 point drop in OPS, which is tolerable for a guy with a bat like this. We’re not talking about an Andre Ethier (or worse, a Curtis Granderson) kind of split here. I’d probably sit him against the better lefties at least early on just until he gets his feet wet, but there’s no question that Brown will be a viable fantasy outfielder almost immediately. There’s plenty of help around him in the lineup, so he’ll have RBI opportunities, and there’s nothing blocking his playing time (except for Ben Francisco‘s .318 wOBA).

Brown has already been gobbled up in 9% of Yahoo! leagues, so make sure you run out and grab him while you can. He could play his way into #2 outfielder status by next month, and obviously has the potential to be even better going forward for those of you lucky enough to have him in a keeper league.



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Mike writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues and contributes to MLB Trade Rumors.

14 Responses to “Phillies summon Domonic Brown”

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  1. Sal says:

    I realize Brown’s skills, but isn’t there a strong chance he gets demoted again when Vic comes back in 2-3 weeks?

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  2. PJ says:

    Oswalt got traded tonight. We’ll see if any OFs go to Houston in the deal.

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  3. Marqo says:

    Hey,
    no offense, really, but did you see Brown run last night?
    25 SBs per 500 at bats? Never… ever…!
    When he’s batting in front of Howard he’ll steal more than 30! Easily…

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    • chri521 says:

      That logic is backward, if you bat right in front of a slugger you are less likely to run since you want to give your slugger a chance to do some damage.

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    • The A Team says:

      Yea, don’t expect 25 steals at the big league level. His lanky frame is sure to fill out over time and his speed will probably go with it.

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  4. buck turgidson says:

    Wow, best prospect in baseball? He’s obviously good but he’s not like a phenom by any stretch. Methinks you’ve spent a little too much time watching the Phillies in the hyperbolic chamber.

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  5. Nick says:

    When Adam Dunn was in the minors he had very similar scouting reports as Dom Brown….. they call Dunn a “7-tool Player” and that he would steal 30 bases a year……

    Can’t trust scouting reports about speed until a guy has fully grown

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    • Sean says:

      Brown’s problem in defense is his reads, because he’s still fairly raw defensively. His speed is not his issue.

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  6. Art says:

    Brown was offered a Scholarship to University of Miami as a wide receiver. Seems to have pretty good speed to me.

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  7. PJ says:

    This is going ot get interesting. An Outfielder is in Oswalt deal but it is not Ibanez or Werth. Victorino had best be out a while if Brown wants to play!

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