Promotion: Aroldis Chapman
Bryan Smith already did a wonderful job breaking down Aroldis Chapman and his role with the Reds down the stretch, but now let’s examine the fantasy impact of the next big Cuban star.
Chapman, 22, is coming up to pitch out of Dusty Baker‘s bullpen in September, so right off the bat his value is diminished. Very few non-closer relievers are worth carrying on your roster in traditional leagues, unless maybe you’re in a roto league and looking to vulture some wins late in the season. With that said, Chapman could mirror a Hong-Chih Kuo type in the best case scenario; a super-high strikeout lefthanded reliever not limited to LOOGY work (I’m not counting his most recent work as the closer).
I doubt Chapman will be able to match Kuo’s stingy walk rate (2.77 K/9), at least initially; he’s walked 3.6 men per nine innings as a reliever in the minors, 4.9 overall, but it’s worth noting that he’s walked just four in a dozen appearances this month. The rest of the goods are there. He’s death to lefthanders, striking out 53 against just 15 walks with a 51.5% ground ball rate in 32.2 IP in the minors, and good against righties (9.63 K/9 in 66.1 IP). It’s easy to understand why he dominates same-sided batters with his top shelf velocity and slider, not to mention his all arms and legs delivery.
But how useful is he for us fantasy owners? Dusty Baker is than willing to trust young pitchers, which works in Chapman’s favor, but realistically we’re looking at maybe 3-4 innings a week. There’s almost a zero chance of him usurping Francisco Cordero without the help of an injury, and even in that case Nick Masset and Arthur Rhodes are probably first in line to fill-in. If you’re league counts holds, then maybe he’s worth more of a consideration.
Despite the hype, I’d tread carefully with Chapman. The reward is very limited given his role, but the blowup potential is pretty damn big at this point in time. He’s owned in 20% of Yahoo! leagues, but it’s too much of a gamble for me this late in the season. With September right around the corner, it’s a too little, too late for Chapman to have any real fantasy impact.
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Good read.
A big point about rookie call-ups of this sort, where the young pitcher is seen as a future starter, is that there’s baseball industry logic behind this. I’m not sure if the Reds subscribe to it, but many baseball people see wisdom in bringing up young future starters as a playoff bullpen arm, in order to give them a taste of playoff excitement to focus their development, and, keep their appearances highly controlled so that they’ll always be facing advantageous matchups. Recent examples of this might be David Price.
Throwing them immediately into the rotation makes them have to face lineups exclusively designed to beat them, while going through the order several times per start. As a RP he’ll probably have no more than an inning per outing, and will always be facing, in this case, lefthanded batters who he’s likely to dominate and rack up numbers. As a fantasy pickup he probably won’t have much more value than any other very good lefthanded specialist. If he gets hot, he’ll probably go an inning per outing with a good K/9, but it’s highly unlikely he becomes a RP horse who goes out every 2-3 games an inning per appearance.
I just added Chapman, not only because I’m in a holds league (his SP eligibility is also a plus), but also because I’m currently on pace to exceed my league’s innings cap, and need to maximize Ks/inning from here on out. Risky? Sure, he could blow up, but the potential upside makes it worth the gamble, in my opinion. As someone in 3rd place in an 11-team league, and with only an outside chance to win (if that), I need to take a few risks!
What about longer term–say for 2011? I know there’s no crystal ball available but do people have a consensus on what his roll will be for next season? Does he once again get used in the pen behind Cordero, do they send him back to AAA to get stretched out as a starter, does he take a rotation spot out of ST and get shut down early in the season, something altogether different?
Jocketty insists that Chapman’s future in 2011 is as a starter without doubt.
Early returns from 2 IP in the majors point to the distinct possibility that he can have a K-Rod circa 2002 influence. There is no doubt that in short stints he can bring the gas at 102 to at least 103 with the fastball. Most reports say his slider is coming at something like 91. So far has 6 batters faced, 3K, 3 weak grounders.
Well let’s take a quick look at where the Reds are in 2010:
For current starters they have
Arroyo
Cueto
Then there’s a question. Tonight’s victory and the Cards loss give them an 8 game lead. At this point they really can think about the playoffs and not so much the rest of September. They’ll be better off focusing on how to win a best of 5 series (likely facing a team with a better 1-2-3 SP staff). And then how to win a best of 7 again likely facing a team with deeper starters and more talent with the front 3.
For 3rd and 4th starters (I can’t imagine that they’ll go more than 4)
Bailey – 2 good starts 2 not very good starts since coming back in August.
Personally I think the Reds playoff success (assuming they make it … which is a very good bet at this point) hinges on Bailey at #3 (ignoring the Reds offense) … or Volquez being able to figure it out in the minors before the playoffs.
Harang – coming off injury and has pretty much been less than league average since 2008 when he was used for something like a 4 inning RP appearance in an extra inning game (on short rest no less). While we’ll never know if that was his undoing … I’m betting it did not help.
He’s been good before.
He isn’t likely in the Reds future plans so using/abusing him before the playoffs probably isn’t a concern.
But he’s not been good lately … for most of 2010 in fact.
Is he REALLY healthy and ready for the playoffs … I think not. Possibly he can get there with his remaining regular season starts. If he does, he’ll be revered in Cincy for it.
Wood
He’s been good for most of they year … though not dominate.
He’s thrown allot of innings compared to the past.
I can easily see him being out of gas like Leake obviously was lately.
I don’t see him as being a factor in the playoffs except possibly as an emergency long man or injury starter. I’m not even sure he’ll make the playoff roster.
Volquez – The Reds have to hope he can get things right before October and give them the “good” Volquez instead of the “bad” that we’ve seen since his return from TJ.
He could be key if Bailey/Harang fail.
Maybe Leake will get enough rest to regain his early season form for the playoffs. Do the Reds even put him on the playoff roster?
Final option:
What if Chapman continues to be dominate in a RP role?
Can he be a shortened starter in the playoffs?
Should the Reds use him in multiple innings to try and keep him somewhat “stretched out” for October?
How difficult is it to go back to a starters pace when you’ve been on a 1 inning bullpen pace for 2 months?
What do you think the Reds should do?
Personally I’m hoping they can make a 3rd starter out of Bailey or Volquez … or alternately use both together to create a 3rd starter.
But should that fail would they be willing/able to use Chapman in that role by October?
Chapman so far:
8/31 vs. Brewers
Jonathan LuCroy : Strike looking, Strike swinging, Foul, LuCroy struck out swinging.
Craig Counsell : Strike swinging, Counsell grounded out to shortstop
Carlos Gomez hit for Manny Parra.
Carlos Gomez : Ball, Gomez grounded out to second.
8 pitches 7 strikes. Max fastball 102 MPH. Average Fastball around 100 MPH.
First batter: Strikes out swinging
9/1
Lorenzo Cain : Strike looking, Cain grounded out to third.
Alcides Escobar : Strike looking, Strike swinging, Foul, Escobar struck out swinging.
Jonathan LuCroy : Ball, Foul, Strike looking, Ball, LuCroy struck out swinging.
11 pitches, 9 strikes
2 fastballs at 103 MPH
19 total pitches in 2 IP (# of fastballs not stated). 10 pitches of at least 100 MPH.
If I’m Dusty Baker (glad I’m not but wish I had his salary) … I don’t want to let any Braves, Phillies, or Padres hitter even see this guy before October.
Fantasy impact 2010 … minimal. Fantasy impact in 2011 if he’s a starter … I’m saying he’ll be well worth owning.
Injury risk: I’m sure it’s higher than “normal” pitchers … and I’m sure the everyone will assume higher given the Strasburg injury. Scouts say he has much better mechanics that Strasburg … but few predicted injury for Strasburg. How many pitches of > 100 MPH did he rack up at San Diego State? I’m guessing quite a few. Plus he didn’t get the injury (as far as the Doctors say) until that last pitch … and is wasn’t a fastball).
Players with verified > 100 MPH pitches ( at least 1) according to baseball almanac:
Zumaya
Wohlers
Benitez
Broxton
Feliz
Jenks
R. Johnson
Lindstrom
Nen
Verlander
Burnett
Chamberlain
Dibble
Farnsworth
Gagne
Jimenez
Lincecum
Mesa
McClung
Mota
T. Pena
Wagner
N. Ryan
Beckett
Cabrera
A. Cashner
Clemens
Colon
F. Cordero
Gooden
Harden
J. Julio
League
Lidge
R. Liz
McGowan
D. Turnbow
B. Wilson
K. Wood
Morrow
Papelbon
J.R. Richard
Sabathia
Sheets
R. Soriano
Strasburg
Are there some injury prone guys in there. For sure. Are there some pitchers who have proven to be reasonably to very durable. For sure.
Most TJ doctors warn against players throwing breaking balls … not very high velocity fastballs. Breaking balls put more strain on the elbow ligaments that are most commonly injuried … not high velocity pitchers.
Does a guy who has a 90 MPH fastball have a lesser chance of injury than one who throws in the upper 90′s or even > 100 ? Probably. How does conditioning, age, usage (or overuse) factor in? What role does simple genetics … and to a lesser degree … luck play into it.
Looking at that list the names that stands out to me is Nolan Ryan. I’d be willing to bet that Ryan threw way more pitches than the 100-120 that is considers “allot” today in many many games. And few can claim as long a career … or especially as long of a *productive* career as Mr. Ryan.
I think no one could say that Ryan wasn’t both durable and dominate. In fact he had 7 no hitters. The next highest on the list is 4 by Sandy Koufax (who did have a much shorter career), followed by a 3 way tie at 3 with Corcoran, Bob Feller, Cy Young
Another interesting fact:
Most number of no hitters broken up after the 7th inning:
1. Nolan Ryan 24
2. Randy Johnson 11
3. Don Sutton 8
4. Dean Chance 7
Roger Clemens 7
Tom Seaver 7
So was Ryan just lucky? Blessed with a really tough elbow ligaments, rotator cuff, etc?
Food for thought.
When an innings limit is a concern and you need alot of K’s in a short amount of innings I can’t see why anyone would be against picking up Chapman (as long as you have the room and won’t need to cut someone of value). Sure he doesn’t get saves and the risk for a blowup is there, but just about every closer I own is at risk of a blowup (Aardsma, Hanrahannannan, Perez) so that issue is a non-factor for me.
Bottom line is I completely disagree with this article and I picked up Chapman Monday night and since then, I’ve gotten 2IP; 1W; 3K’s; 0 Runs; 0 Baserunners.