Comments on: Prospect Watcher: Travis Snider http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/prospect-watcher-travis-snider/ Daily fantasy baseball analysis and strategy Sun, 12 Feb 2012 19:47:27 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Kris http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/prospect-watcher-travis-snider/#comment-2102 Kris Wed, 08 Apr 2009 18:55:58 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=2550#comment-2102 From a fantasy prospective, deciding whether or not a rookie will succeed over a full-season is a crap-shoot. With Snider, we had some stats from last year to work with, but projecting them over a full season is idiotic. This is where small sample size-comes into play, taking a statistic where the margin of error is high, and extrapolating it over a season. Obviously, it magnifies the margin of error. I don't think people are doing this with Snider, or else he'd be a top-50 pick. People are however doing this with Longoria, which is downright scary. Longoria's sample size doesn't come close to describing who he is as a player, and extrapolating 400AB into 550AB is stupid-silly. Anyways, as is the case with any young prospect, we know he can hit the ball hard, what we want to look at is why Snider is swinging at the first pitch so often. This is what we're not getting from Snider's statistics. While we are getting his FP%, what we aren't getting is that Snider went one pitch go by in his first 3 AB, and it was a strike (he probably swung, I don't recall) The question a fantasy owner has to ask himself is whether or not opposing teams have the book on Snider now. If they continue throwing Snider strikes, he'll be a huge help to your fantasy squad. If they start throwing him junk, and make him take a walk -- then Snider is going to have some issues, and generally won't help your squad. From a fantasy prospective, deciding whether or not a rookie will succeed over a full-season is a crap-shoot. With Snider, we had some stats from last year to work with, but projecting them over a full season is idiotic. This is where small sample size-comes into play, taking a statistic where the margin of error is high, and extrapolating it over a season. Obviously, it magnifies the margin of error. I don’t think people are doing this with Snider, or else he’d be a top-50 pick.

People are however doing this with Longoria, which is downright scary. Longoria’s sample size doesn’t come close to describing who he is as a player, and extrapolating 400AB into 550AB is stupid-silly.

Anyways, as is the case with any young prospect, we know he can hit the ball hard, what we want to look at is why Snider is swinging at the first pitch so often. This is what we’re not getting from Snider’s statistics. While we are getting his FP%, what we aren’t getting is that Snider went one pitch go by in his first 3 AB, and it was a strike (he probably swung, I don’t recall)

The question a fantasy owner has to ask himself is whether or not opposing teams have the book on Snider now. If they continue throwing Snider strikes, he’ll be a huge help to your fantasy squad. If they start throwing him junk, and make him take a walk — then Snider is going to have some issues, and generally won’t help your squad.

]]> By: Marc http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/prospect-watcher-travis-snider/#comment-2100 Marc Wed, 08 Apr 2009 17:29:14 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=2550#comment-2100 Small sample sizes can be helpful, though, from a fantasy perspective and this is a fantasy tool. People, by viewing this can identify such things are, how is the player swinging this week, how is he doing again RH/LHs... At the end of the year, if you have 20 of these for Snider than you can perhaps notice some trends which create a need to dig deeper into the numbers. After reading this, I notice Snider had arguably his worst at-bat on Monday against the LH. If he had been facing a left-handed starter on Tuesday I may have pulled him in favor of someone else. In fact, he did face a LH reliever in his second game of the year and did not have a great at-bat... So now I know to keep an eye on this trend, while not jumping to any conclusions. Small sample sizes can be helpful, though, from a fantasy perspective and this is a fantasy tool. People, by viewing this can identify such things are, how is the player swinging this week, how is he doing again RH/LHs… At the end of the year, if you have 20 of these for Snider than you can perhaps notice some trends which create a need to dig deeper into the numbers.

After reading this, I notice Snider had arguably his worst at-bat on Monday against the LH. If he had been facing a left-handed starter on Tuesday I may have pulled him in favor of someone else. In fact, he did face a LH reliever in his second game of the year and did not have a great at-bat… So now I know to keep an eye on this trend, while not jumping to any conclusions.

]]> By: Sean http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/prospect-watcher-travis-snider/#comment-2098 Sean Wed, 08 Apr 2009 17:10:02 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=2550#comment-2098 Looks like waiting for his pitch isn't exactly Snider's best attribute. Can't argue with the result though. Looks like waiting for his pitch isn’t exactly Snider’s best attribute. Can’t argue with the result though.

]]> By: Kris http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/prospect-watcher-travis-snider/#comment-2097 Kris Wed, 08 Apr 2009 13:58:49 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=2550#comment-2097 People under appreciate small sample sizes because of all of the warnings and doomsday predictions. It's annoying, stupid, and idiotic. While you can't make sweeping conclusions based on small sample sizes, you can't just throw the statistics out as if they've never happened. The events have occurred, and cannot be ignored. Anyone who's done any work in statistics knows that we're not going to get a definitive answer in baseball. We're not even going to get a good answer until 3/4 of the way through the season, and that's just a *good* answer. So you work with what you've got, and when you're able to add qualitative analysis, you're only improving the level of confidence you can put into the statistics. 20 Games worth of statistics, plus notes from watching the games is probably a hell of a lot more useful than statistics from 40 games without any qualitative analysis. That's the end of my rant. Your eyes can fool you, but if you know what you're looking for.... People under appreciate small sample sizes because of all of the warnings and doomsday predictions.

It’s annoying, stupid, and idiotic. While you can’t make sweeping conclusions based on small sample sizes, you can’t just throw the statistics out as if they’ve never happened.

The events have occurred, and cannot be ignored.

Anyone who’s done any work in statistics knows that we’re not going to get a definitive answer in baseball. We’re not even going to get a good answer until 3/4 of the way through the season, and that’s just a *good* answer.

So you work with what you’ve got, and when you’re able to add qualitative analysis, you’re only improving the level of confidence you can put into the statistics.

20 Games worth of statistics, plus notes from watching the games is probably a hell of a lot more useful than statistics from 40 games without any qualitative analysis.

That’s the end of my rant. Your eyes can fool you, but if you know what you’re looking for….

]]> By: NBH http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/prospect-watcher-travis-snider/#comment-2096 NBH Wed, 08 Apr 2009 13:36:52 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=2550#comment-2096 This site promotes large sample sizes...are you going to post Travis Snider's at bats each day? Otherwise I don't really understand the point. This site promotes large sample sizes…are you going to post Travis Snider’s at bats each day? Otherwise I don’t really understand the point.

]]> By: Jason http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/prospect-watcher-travis-snider/#comment-2089 Jason Tue, 07 Apr 2009 22:10:22 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=2550#comment-2089 Hi Marc, Love this idea/feature. Might I suggest a brief commentary for those of us who didn't actually see the game? You know, things like "he struck out but it was a great at bat and questionable call by the umpire"....or...."his homerun barely cleared the fence and would be an F9 in any other park"..... Just a thought. Otherwise, I'm really excited about the fantasy content rolling out of this site! Regards, Jason Hi Marc,

Love this idea/feature. Might I suggest a brief commentary for those of us who didn’t actually see the game? You know, things like “he struck out but it was a great at bat and questionable call by the umpire”….or….”his homerun barely cleared the fence and would be an F9 in any other park”…..

Just a thought. Otherwise, I’m really excited about the fantasy content rolling out of this site!

Regards,
Jason

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