Rankings Update: Outfielders (OF1)
It’s been a little while since we did the first outfielders, and some things have changed. Let’s update these with to-date wOBAs and ZiPs RoS wOBAs and injury information and all that jazz, shan’t we?
The Top Three:
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (.442 wOBA, .402 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles NL (.355 wOBA, .373 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Justin Upton, Arizona (.350 wOBA, .380 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Justin Upton is on comeback trail. He’s having a .310/.347/.577 kind of a May which pulls him back into this top-three territory. For those that would like to penalize him for his batting average / strikeout issues, it looks like he either has contact skills that can prop up a decent average or he’s streaky enough to make the final tally look fine. And the counting stats are looking fine – his ZiPs Update has him at 27 home runs and 16 stolen bases. That’s not bad. In fact, it’s good.
There’s Nothing Wrong With…
Nelson Cruz, Texas (.445 wOBA, .383 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.384 wOBA, .364 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle (.368 wOBA, .358 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Holliday, St. Louis (.354 wOBA, .396 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland (.372 wOBA, .377 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
While Justin Upton doesn’t have the lengthy history to ‘prove’ his batting average risk, Nelson Cruz does. He’s come a long way to even get to this point, really. But we know the strikeouts will bring that average down, so don’t go counting on a .301 batting average to last. The rest of the guys on this list are providing stats in multiple categories despite a tiny bit of disappointment in most cases. A stolen base tear or a little power burst, and they’ll turn in seasons like any other on their resumes.
Hurt But Still Good?
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles NL (.507 wOBA, .402 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.366 wOBA, .345 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Curtis Granderson, New York AL (.315 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Grady Sizemore, Cleveland (.256 wOBA, .359 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
New tier for these guys, who are testing patience across the country. Granderson is close to coming back, as he was shagging fly balls recently. Ellsbury played a rehab game, too. Those two represent decent buy-low candidates. You might want to wait for news on Sizemore’s knee – surgery was rumored – before you go poking around on his availability.
Not Quite Five-Category Performers
Josh Hamilton, Texas (.373 wOBA, .368 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia (.441 wOBA, .396 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles NL (.426 wOBA, .413 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Josh Hamilton and Jayson Werth both look like they are a healthy month away from jumping tiers. Werth is playing a little above his head, but all that contract talk is probably making him salivate. Andre Ethier was leading the triple-crown categories, but maybe he should be in the hurt category. People should be pardoned for being a little skeptical about his huge ISO, given his history. His BABIP should fall, too. There could be some flip-flopping between this tier and the second one with some sustained play.
Missing Something?
Jason Bay, New York NL (.346 wOBA, .383 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Adam Lind, Toronto (.306 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Nick Markakis, Baltimore (.365 wOBA, .375 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh (.394 wOBA, .361 ZiPs RoS wOBA))
McCutchen is moving his way up, but ISO stabilizes latest so we have to be careful about how much we move him up. It’s still possible he belongs with speedsters Michael Bourn and Brett Gardner below. Adam Lind and Nick Markakis in the meantime are moving their way down until they can prove they have some one fantasy tool that we can latch on to. They still have some history to call back on, or else they’d have dropped further.
Upside to Join the Top
B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.316 wOBA, .337 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carlos Quentin (.304 wOBA, .352 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Michael Bourn (.340 wOBA, .322 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Brett Gardner (.391 wOBA, .332 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
The elder Upton’s strikeout rate seems to be the harbinger of a poor batting average, as does Quentin’s poor line drive rate. Michael Bourn just doesn’t have any power, or he’d move up the list himself. Stolen bases are rare enough that some speed-only guys can make their way into the elite, but we do expect some power before they can join the elite of the elite. Brett Gardner is a borderline guy himself until someone drops out, for example. There maybe some movement here in this tier between OF1 and OF2.
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Carlos Gonzalez isn’t listed? Was he just left off or is he not considered an OF1? I know he’s been in a slump and all, but he’s still hitting .311 25R 4 HR 28 RBI 5 SB after going 0-5 tonight.
Through twitter, @dmagku points out Alex Rios. I’m not sure he should be any further up than that tier Upside to Join the Top tier. You can check the recent RG and FG pieces on Rios to make your own decisions, though! He should join some OF1 tier soon though.
I love CarGo. He was tops in OF2. He’s also in consideration near the bottom of the bottom OF1 tier. But his un-selectivity should be noted. if he doesn’t walk, he’s subject to streaks.
Yeah, I’ve been watching the Rockies religiously and the guy just wont let a pitch go. He’s got great reach, but once he figures out that he doesn’t have to swing at everything outside he’ll be a true stud.
Thanks for info, I’m curious to see OF2 now.
His average will come down, and he really shouldn’t be hitting leadoff with that awful walk rate.
Still, he should wind up .280ish, 20/20 and in a standard 5×5 I’d take that over some guys listed here: Bay, Sizemore, Bourn, BJ Upton (BA=ick).
He’d be a Choo-lite. Regardless he’s a valuable asset in almost any format especially being qualified at all three OF spots according to Yahoo. I just kind of hope he’ll end up in a more RBI friendly role than the lead off spot. I think it’d be a stretch for Tracy to start his line up with Fowler, Helton then CarGo. Maybe if EY gets healthy and can dislodge Barmes at 2B we’ll see CarGo bat 3rd or 5th again.
As a Quentin owner i’m pretty surprised he is here
I agree. He was dropped in my 10 team 5 OF league and I claimed him at #8.
Ditto that. If Quentin or Gardner is your OF1, then your infield better be Pujols/Phillips/Jeter/Panda or some such. Of course, they’re in the “upside th join the top” group and not really listed as “true” OFs1.
Any chance they move McCutchen back to lead off? I’m afraid he’ll become a prolific singles hitter with no steals…
No Torii Hunter? He has been better than the bottom seven guys on that list, and it’s not even close.
Not an OF1…
Would you really have Sizemore over… any of the guys below him? He has been terrible, then hurt, now rumored to require surgery. Would you seriously trade anyone below him on that list for him tomorrow?
Also it’s not like it’s just a slow start. It’s a continuation of a bad performance from last year, at some point it’s definitely more than just a long slump.
SIzemore is the most overrated player in the history of fantasy baseball. I also said this pre-season based on his absurd ranking in here.
I don’t think the position that a guy who hit 30/30 just a few years ago, is still on the correct side of 30, and went in the third and fourth rounds this year is the most over-rated player in the history of fantasy baseball is defensible. All you’re doing is heaping on a guy who’s having a tough time physically, imo. You can’t argue with the sustained power and speed Size put up before he got hurt last year, it exists. All we can argue about is if Size will get it back. I think he will… at some point.
No way would I trade any of these OF1′s for Sizemore. I would say he is in Carlos Quentin territory at best (but definitely worse than B.J. Upton and Gardner) and let me stress, at best.
I recently (before the surgery rumor) traded Longoria and Theriot for Hanley and Sizemore.
I’m not sure it was the best idea, but I sort of feel like Hanely is a slight downgrade from Longoria and Sizemore is a serious upgrade in potential from waiver-wire-esque Theriot. This is a 14 team 3 year keeper league in its second year, so that adds some upside to Sizemore.
Hanley should be an upgrade from Longo imo.
Yeah, that’s a solid trade. Hanley is the #2 player behind Pujols (and for people like me, who take positional scarcity seriously, he has a good claim to #1). Power, speed, tons of average, and a decent lineup with Cantu, Uggla, Coghlan, etc. provide excellent stats. He won’t hit like Pujols, but any one of Gonzalez/Fielder/Votto/Teixeira/Cabrera will provide great numbers at 1B anyway, while the only SS who can hit like Hanley is Tulo (and Jeter or Rollins in a good year), and he doesn’t provide the speed or average that HanRam does (yeah, Tulo will hit .300, but Ramirez hits .340).
I may be a pessimistic mets fan but between the stadium and the mets offense being putrid I have a hard time believing Bay should be that “high”. I imagine even if he is a streaky hitter and suddenly gets insanely hot Citifield is going to prevent him from going on a homerun tear, and with the rest of the offense being so bad, and Jerry insisting on using insane line ups with auto-outs near the top, I’d be surprised if he gets as many rbis or runs as originally projected.
Upon consulting the park factor for home runs in Citi Field this year (.606), I have moved Bay down into the Missing Something category. Last year’s park factor for HR in Citi was actually above 1, though, and even David Wright can be an example of how we shouldn’t blame the park completely. Bay has power that goes in and out some years. Witnes the 20-HR year he had in Pitt.
The lineup concerns are also relevant, as RBI are a big part of his value. Again, I would like the rankings to move slower than popular sentiment. A nice month from Bay might remind us why we liked him before.
Jason Bay’s only asset – power – has been neutralised by Citi Field so he should be removed from this list.
I’d much rather own Nelson Cruz than Justin Upton.
And Calros Quentin on here suggests you’re not watching the games- he is broken down, sad to say.
Bourn, Gardner > Rios, CarGo?
Even if Cargo’s AVG goes down to .280, he’s still at least a 20/20 guy. And I’m not sure he bats leadoff the entire year. Especially with the upside he has- if he can learn to swing at less pitches as the year goes on- I’d take him over Bay, Manny, Markakis, and any of the “Upside” group.
Same goes for Rios. Rios is contending for 40-50 steals this year, and he also provides power. Not many guys like that. I suppose the question is: Do we believe he’s finally put it all together? It seems like he has.
Thanks for the analysis.
Sizemore – Hurt but still good? The answer is NO.
Ethier/Werth – Not sure if I understand your logic, but these guys continue to improve year after year; whereas, the others you have in this Not Quite Five Category are erratic and inconsistent and haven’t had comparable stats in quite a while.
I like the Gardner recognition, but Quentin? Why not include Bruce, CarGo, and Rasmus?
I actually think it’s the job of rankings like this to go slower than popular sentiment. If Bay, Sizemore and Quentin were OF1s of some sort going into the season, and so few statistics have actually stabilized a month in, then they should probably still be OF1s for the time being. I’ve pushed them further and further down in the rankings, and at some point they won’t be here anymore if they continue what they are doing.
The same, in reverse, is true for Bruce, CarGo and Rasmus. They were all top-tier OF2s, and they’ll be the first group to join this list. I do like them. All three represent some risk still, though.
About Sizemore, it’s a real conundrum. Put me in the camp that believes he’s still good when he’s healthy, but of course I have concerns like everyone else. I would trade some of the guys on this list for him, but I’d rather trade worse players for him because I believe this ranking represents his upside still. You don’t need to pay retail for upside if the current play is terrible – for example, would you have to pay retail for Granderson or Ellsbury right now? No.
Still no love for Ethier? When will be believe the power is real? Probably the worst timing to question this as he is on the DL but not sure why no love for a 27 year old coming off a big season and showing no signs of slowing down (or even making an out!). Definitely not top 3, but I can see him fitting in no prob in the next tier.
Okay, okay. Guess I was still living in 2008. Even if his power isn’t this great, he’s obviously developed power beyond the 20-HR guy he used to be. I see the platoon split over his career, but that takes up to 1000 PAs to become significant and he’s only half-way there. Everyone has blind spots, it’s possible Ethier is one of mine. I’ve taken the criticism though and updated the rankings.
Well, I am sure when he comes back, he will start 0-20 and you will look like a genious!
Def agreed, he’s hit about 36 homers across his last 162 games, the power is def legit.
I hope you’re wrong. I was so frustrated with Sizemore that I dropped him. And I’m not alone, down to 87% owned on ESPN. I also have Granderson occupying my DL slot, so I needed the room.
Yeah, unless Sizemore comes back from this injury and goes on an absolute tear, I don’t like him much, and definitely not as an OF1. Not just because of the poor numbers, but a confluence of him changing his swing and dealing with injuries created by his old swing (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Slumpbot-200-Grady-Sizemore-s-new-swing-isn-t-?urn=mlb,238882).
When a guy who used to hit very well changes his swing and stops hitting well and has to take multiple trips to the DL because of the effect his old (good) swing had, that scares the crap out of me as a fantasy owner. I’m not sure we can expect Sizemore to perform as well as he used to, and I’m not sure we can expect him to even stay healthy. Where, then, is the benefit?
If Ryan Ludwick keeps going, he should be listed
Not an OF1.
Yeah, the placement of Ethier behind guys like Choo, Sizemore, Ichiro, Ellsbury, and Granderson is perplexing. He has shown nothing but growth for the last four years. Hopefully my league mates read this site.
Even his ZIPS ROS projections top most of the other OFers.
updated, but once he comes back it’s going to be hard to figure out where to put him in that second tier – the other guys all steal bases, too. I guess he’d go right behind Cruz, but we’ll see how long he’s out.
@ Eno “The younger Upton’s strikeout rate ”
BJ Upton is the elder Upton unless I missed something there.
I’ve always been a fan of Cruz and this year has similarities to his campaign last year when his BA was smoking hot only to tail off at the end. The power is real but is it just me, or is he making better contact this year? Not as many golden sombreros.
holy jebus I did that last time too. Is this some sort of body-type problem I’m making? Justin is a little bit bigger so he’s the older brother?
AS for Cruz, his k-rate is up a little, but so is his contact rate. It’s all out-of-zone stuff, but since he reaches a good amount, any increase in contact percentage helps him. Still, a 69.1% contact rate does not usually beget a good batting average.
Ha, a ‘little’ bigger? J.Up is clearly the man of the two!
Still surprised Abreu isn’t here. But I love consistency.
This isn’t a list of all fantasy OFs; it’s the OF1 list. Abreu’s a useful player, but he’s not good enough to be your best fantasy OF, right?
Amen – I appended something similar on the comments about Torii Hunter and Ryan Ludwick as well. These guys (and Abreu) are certainly useful, above-average players, but shouldn’t be featured as your “top” outfielder.
And with that said, I would prefer some of them to some of the guys listed. But even so they shouldn’t be an OF1.
Sizemore and Markakis blow. Cargo should be on here. BJ Upton is all hype, give me Rasmus. I disagree with Eno, lists like this should be leading public sentiment not following. Aren’t you supposedly the “experts” that we look to for advice? What good is a list that has Quentin, Grady, Markakis as OF1 and is slow to recognize true breakout performances?
Because people slump. IF Q gets hot and launches a few out of the Cell and once again looks like the .260-.280 30+ HR hitter we thought he was, then this list fails because we had Q high going in and then were too reactionary.
Being reactionary and declaring a player toast is much easier than preaching patience, as evidenced by this comments thread in particular.
Amen. We’re still in the part of the season during which all sample sizes from this year are yet small. I know we all want to learn from and draw new conclusions, but it’s early yet. I’d kill a real team for selling Teixiera for Baustista based on current, in-season numbers, and I’ll kill a fake team, too, right?
Jeter, for one, is starting off like the end is neigh, but that was also true two years ago. And 2009 was vintage Jeter in-between.
Sizemore simply is slumping coming back from an injury. Until I hear that something from the elbow/abdominal is hurt forever and cost him a tool, he’s a buy low opp.
If you want the overly reactionary rankings, just sort based on current Yahoo! rankings. It’ll have such nuggets as Livan Hernandez as more valuable than CC Sabbathia and Jose Bautista over A-Rod (likely, trust me, I haven’t checked).
Johnny Tuttle, who said anything about selling Teixiera for Bautista? Talk about going to the extreme to try and make a point but you only made yourself look foolish. I’m talking about not recognizing breakout performances from the likes of McCutchen or Cargo and still loving Markakis or Sizemore or Quentin based on numbers they put up two years ago. I would trade you any of those three for either McCutchen or Cargo or Rios and a ranking that doesn’t feel like it should move based on a months worth of stats isn’t worth much in my opinion. Buy low all you want on Sizemore but you will end up dropping him when he either goes under the knife or continues to put up 0-4s with 0 hrs.
Thank goodness for Nelson because if Quentin was the 1st OF I drafted, I’d be hurting. He’s been plagued by a terrible BABIP, but the whole team is in a funk. Where do you see his end of season line?
Manny has to move down the list. Too many playing time concerns.
No Alex Rios? I suppose it’s possible that he won’t keep it up, but he’s in his prime, his numbers don’t seem too fluky, and I’m definitely more confident in him keeping it up than I am in Sizemore or Quentin turning it around. And there’s no way I’m taking Gardner or Bourn over Rios if we’re drafting today.
Farcical to see Quentin on here and Rios not.
Your sense of farce will probably be less offended the next time this list is updated. I do believe this list should move slower than popular sentiment, but I’m also not an unreasonable man:
See my piece on Quentin and his xBABIP on Bloomberg here
Just traded away Mr. Werth and Leake for Ludwick and Kershaw, good deal?
Like most trades it depends on the rest of your roster composition and which categories you are strong and weak in. But with that caveat, I like the Ludwick/Kershaw side, mainly because I’m not entirely sold on Leake just yet.
Let’s have an honorable mention for Vlad Guerrero. He’s gonna gain OF eligibility in a lot of leagues soon. He has a career batting average of .404 at Arlington (which given his career, is not exactly a completely unworthy sample), balls tend to fly around that ballpark like ping pong balls in the summer, and he’s already tearing the cover off the ball. He’s improved his road hitting, which admittedly got off to a slow start at the beginning of the season. He’s even stealing bases again (sort of..)! By season’s end, I don’t think a .318 average with 30 homers and 12 steals is all that far-fetched, making him a very worthwhile contributor.
I enjoy your other positional rankings, but I honestly have no idea what you mean by ‘OF1′? How do you rank Sizemore (out for the year), Lind, and Quentin ahead of someone like Victorino?
This was written a month ago when Sizemore was not microfractured and before Lind and Quentin sucked for another month. It will look different the next time you see it.
That’s fair, but I still don’t understand the meaning of ‘OF1′? Is this based on an assumption that OF are evenly distributed across fantasy leagues?
Obviously it is beyond the scope of this project to have different rankings for each level of league. OF1 is meant to designate that these outfielders, from this point forward, should be considered first outfielders in most leagues. If you are in a ten-teamer, you might own two of these guys, but otherwise, most leagues would find a suitable first outfielder on this list.
As for Victorino, he’ll be an interesting case. I wouldn’t want him as a mixed-league first outfielder – this kind of power is not usually in his game and he usually tops out around 10 HR / 30 SBs (not OF1 territory), but I’ll look into adding him when Quentin and Size drop out.