Rankings Update: Second Base
It’s been almost six weeks since we updated the rankings for second basemen. Oh, in those hallowed days of yore – six weeks hence I lived in New York City, my commute was filled with tourists and teenagers, six-packs cost $12 and every once in a while human feces was something I had to watch out for. Greatest city in the world. On to the second basemen, with to-date wOBA and ZiPs RoS wOBAs included for your pleasure.
The Top Targets:
Robinson Cano, New York AL (.403 wOBA, .373 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Ian Kinsler, Texas (.359 wOBA, .368 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.381 wOBA, .372 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati (.349 wOBA, .339 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Not much to report here, other than perhaps the fact that some would want Cano in his own tier with Utley and Pedroia down and Kinsler showing much less power than he has in the past. It’s not an unreasonable position. However, the other three guys still have 20/20 type skills, and with Cano’s lack of speed, it makes sense to create this tier.
Strong Secondary Options
Dan Uggla, Florida (.383 wOBA, .365 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.375 wOBA, .360 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Kelly Johnson, Arizona (.379 wOBA, .373 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.345 wOBA, .347 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Johnson is enjoying the best power production of his career, and his home park might just have a little to do with it. Just look at his home slugging percentage (.605) compared to his road number (.380). It still evens out to an effective second baseman either way. Zobrist is stealing enough bases and showing just enough power to be useful even in this less-exciting version. He could be a mascot for the tier – a little ugly, but getting the job done.
Will They Ever Get it Together This Year:
Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.377 wOBA, .406 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Chone Figgins, Seattle (.305 wOBA, .327 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.292 wOBA, .356 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Of course the question with Utley is one of health. The latest reports say the splint is off and he hopes to be back before the end of the month, meaning that he could be a sneaky acquisition for a manager looking for a late boost. In head-to-head leagues in particular, Utley is intriguing as a strong addition for a contending team stocking up for the fantasy playoffs. Since the break, Figgins has been hitting .300 and striking out less, so it’s possible the old Figgins is back and we just didn’t notice. Kinda makes him either over-rated or a buy-low candidate depending on how you parse that statement. There’s a whole lot of rust and a really small sample size for Roberts, so he makes the riskiest buy low of the trio.
Pick ‘Em:
Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.346 wOBA, .348 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Martin Prado, Atlanta (.364 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ian Stewart, Colorado (.348 wOBA, .346 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Casey McGehee, Milwaukee (.335 wOBA, .327 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ryan Theriot, Los Angeles (.290 wOBA, .302 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ty Wigginton, Baltimore (.339 wOBA, .358 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Juan Uribe, San Francisco, (.330 wOBA, .328 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
This is a pick ‘em tier not because they all have the exact same value. In many leagues, these guys are free agents and their value is close to nil. Of course, deeper league owners are happy to have many of them. It’s the fact that each offers production in a category or two that makes them pick ‘ems. Need a little bit of pop? Try Wigginton or Uribe if Stewart is not available. Need some speed? It could be worse than The Riot. Need some batting average help? Polanco can help while Prado is out. The flaws are all there, too, though.
Upside to Join the Top:
Gordon Beckham, Chicago (.296 wOBA, .331 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Aaron Hill, Toronto (.305 wOBA, .327 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.317 wOBA, .326 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Ian Desmond, Washington (.302 wOBA, .321 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Technically, this group still has the upside to move upwards. They’ve all had some poor batted ball luck – Hill of course the most extreme (.204 BABIP) – and the regressions to their means might give for a nice stretch or two in the final seven weeks. On the other hand, their flaws are also fairly impressive at this point. Hill hits everything in the air to his detriment (52.1% flyballs, 13.2% popups), Desmond reaches a little too often (34.1%, 17.5% more than average) and could make more contact (79.1%, 2.3% below average), and Kendrick still doesn’t have the power (.141 ISO) or the speed (4.9 Speed Score) to make an impact in the counting categories. Beckham hasn’t been too unlucky with his BABIP, and though he does have the flaws to put him in this group (.117 ISO most prominently), his rookie year still shows his upside and makes his owners wonder which Beckham is the true version. These guys have a sliver of hope between them and the next group down.
Filler:
Carlos Guillen, Detroit (.331 wOBA, .353 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.335 wOBA, .342 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Felipe Lopez, St Louis (.323 wOBA, .316 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Alberto Callaspo, Los Angeles AL (.311 wOBA, .324 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Mike Aviles, Kansas City (.300 wOBA, .304 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
This is a new tier, but the name reveals all. It’s nice to get most of the second basemen in the league listed in one place, so this group has a place. That place is probably not on your fantasy team unless most starters in your league are owned. It’s completely possible that not a single guy among the four will crack double-digits in either home runs or steals, or hit .300.
7
Where’s Neil Walker and his .341 wOBA?
I’d put him in Filler. Maybe Upside to Join the Top, but though we are surprised that he’s finally contributing, it’s not like he has great power, or that batting average is really sustainable.
At this point, are you surprised that Walker has seemed to become a home run threat by second baseman standards at the MLB level? Do you think double digit homers with an average in the .290s for him is sustainable for the future, or is he a one year wonder? Also, concerning steals, do you think the 10 he had with only 1 CS in AAA means anything at all, or will he likely have very low steal upside commensurate with his steal pace at other levels, or indeed AAA in 08/09?
How is Weeks not in the top tier at this point?
His RoS projected batting average is worse than the top tier. And I believe it.
So did I, which is why I tried to trade him in June. But he has continued to defy those low batting average projections.
I’m not sure how Martin Prado would ever be unowned at this point. He is injured, yes, but that could be the only reason. Even still, he should be back in a week. Just seems really out of place.
I didn’t mean to suggest that all of them would be on the wire. Just that they are not five-cat guys so they are a little more replaceable.
My rate fantasy 2B rankings based on updated CHONE projections and basic 5 cats is:
Utley, Chase
Kinsler, Ian
Cano, Robinson
Phillips, Brandon
Uggla, Dan
Pedroia, Dustin
Weeks, Rickie
Young, Eric
Roberts, Brian
Zobrist, Ben
Johnson, Kelly
Hill, Aaron
Figgins, Chone
Kendrick, Howie
That’s pretty high for a month of Utley, don’t you think?
RATE
So let me get this straight. Brandon Phillips ranks in the first tier of 2B. Every single member of the second tier projects to have a higher wOBA for the rest of the season. So do two out of three in the third tier and all but two in the fourth tier.
So what is the ranking based upon? My initial thought is that wOBA doesn’t project traditional fantasy stats very well. But that made me wonder why it would be listed as the only statistical justification for the rankings of 2B in an explicitly fantasy-oriented post.
So what justifies Brandon Phillips’s position? Either it’s some unexplained statistical prediction, or else it’s blind faith. If it’s the former, then why wouldn’t the relevant statistical details be provided? This is FanGraphs, after all. If it’s the latter, well, then you might as well be Brandon Funston.
Come on, guys. Stop providing data that is explicitly at odds with the judgments you make about numbers-based predictions without providing an explanation. This is the main reason why RotoGraphs lags well behind FanGraphs.
This is a legitimate critique of our rankings, but I believe the ‘problem’ is just more of a FG-vs-real-life thing. We list wOBA because it’s the best ‘one-number’ offensive stat to list. It would be a pain to list all the ZiPs RoS projections for the roto stats, and since all the players are linked here, you can easily check them for yourself.
On the other hand, you’ll also notice that roto stats don’t always pair well with wOBA. Look at Ryan Theriot. Mediocre real-life player with no power at all, he can fly in a 5×5 because he still gives you a decent batting average and some speed.
So, in regards to Brandon Phillips, I believe that he, like the rest of his tier not including Robinson Cano, can go at least 20/20 with a solid batting average. He’s not the greatest real-life player because of some flaws, so his wOBA ain’t great, but he certainly looks like a top-tier fantasy 2B to me.
daiheide, no one says you have to like Sarris’s rankings. Also, did you read carefully? He wrote: “the other three guys still have 20/20 type skills” including Phillips. wOBA projections are there to give an overall, one-stat view of how good a hitter is. Of course it doesn’t measure in exact terms a player’s home run output or their stolen base potential.
Please come up with a stat that does so and let us all know, daiheide.
Also, comparing Sarris to Brandon Funston is way more unjustified than putting Phillips 1st tier. It’s clear that Sarris is ranking players based on how many categories they contribute to in a standard 5×5 league. Don’t blame your stupidity on others.
Pointing out that I don’t *have* to like something I read on the internet is about the least helpful thing you could have said, Nolan. Should I respond by making the incisive point that you don’t have to like the comments I leave on FanGraphs? That would get us somewhere.
I realize that the rankings are based on traditional 5×5 categories. My point – which Sarris concedes – is that wOBA isn’t a particularly good measure of fantasy value. I think it’s strange to use a misleading stat as the lone statistical justification for a judgment, and I think that’s a lesson that FanGraphs itself tries pretty hard to impress upon its readers. Pointing out that the rankings might be accurate *in spite of* the misleading statistical justification doesn’t affect my point.
Also: is it really your position that I can’t criticize the use of wOBA here unless I have my own, original one-number statistical measurement? Really? That’s ridiculous.
I think it’s just more information. I don’t know how misleading it is if 99% of you don’t play in wOBA leagues. But an FGer might want to know the wOBA because it’s a better judge of real-life talent.
You believe the list would be stronger without the wOBAs attached?
I’m not denying that it’s difficult to come up with a single measurement that expresses fantasy value reasonably well. But, yeah, I do think it’s misleading to provide a measurement that we all admit is not a particularly good measure of fantasy value. I suppose I would prefer that we were just left to investigate on our own the statistical justification implicit in the rankings – something you claim you are already encouraging by linking to the player pages – or just to rely on the brief snippets of prose you provide after each tier.
I tend to agree that wOBA is a fairly useless statistic for fantasy purposes, especially in a traditional 5×5 league. It is much like using winning percentage to rank pitcher skill. It is a decent approximation most of the time but will be badly off in some cases and won’t let you fine tune your ordering very well.
A possible solution would be to convert ZIPS projections into dollar values. This would involve a significant amount of work to create a conversion and is not an instant solution. But, a dollar value would create a handy comparison tool that would function in relation to 5×5 (or whatever) league production as wOBA does in relation to real life production. (I still use auction values in drafts because they are indispensable in discerning value drops at positions so as to make optimal draft decisions.)
But, although many have created such tools, it is not a trivial undertaking to do it well and until FG develops a dollar valuation of fantasy production, it is pretty hard to think of a good catchall metric to include in these reports. So, I can’t really object to the use of wOBA as if only one number is to be included. All of them are flawed in substantial ways.
Jeff Keppinger should probably be in the back end somewhere. At the top end he’s good for .300 and 10 HR, though more likely around .280.
Also he’s batting anywhere between second and sixth consistently in the Houston offense so he’s been doing decently at the counting stats.
Houston is such a black hole on the infield it just sucked Keppinger in. He might be Filler, don’t think he has enough Upside.
Is Ty Wigginton really a better option than someone like Kendrick or Beckham? I dropped him for Kendrick the second Kendrick hit waivers. (12 team roto)
Wiggy is projected for .275 and 6 home runs from here on out as his BABIP regresses to the mean. Kendrick is projected for .285, 3 home runs, and 3 stolen bases. It’s a question of needs I guess.
Beckham, especially with his recent groin injury, is the biggest question. If you needed a home-run pick to get hot and pad your stats in multiple categories, I might take him. If I was near the top of my league, I would pick from Kendrick or Wiggy based on my needs.
Is EY Jr expected back this year?
I’ve been hanging on to him, but if he’s not coming back, I need the roster spot (now that he’s off the DL and in CO Springs). I can’t find any projected return dates or even educated guesses…
Robinson Cano deserves his own tier. What would “speed” influence? Runs scored and defense? Well Cano’s posting a positive defensive rating and he’s fourth in the league in runs scored out of the 5 spot in the Yankees lineup (this was before today where he tacked on a few runs scored).
Speed is absolutely no justification for not placing Cano in his own tier. He is outplaying every 2B in baseball and it’s not even close.
except, this is not an article about real life, it’s about fantasy baseball, where “speed” is generally 20% of your value (one of five categories).
hard to believe a 4th tier 2nd baseman like Martin Prado has been carrying my team all year
Yeah. This article fails. How is Prado not in the top tier? He beats Phillips in both stats and blows Zobrist out of the water.
Phillips beats Prado in every stat but batting average, maybe runs. Prado has 15 home runs and 5 steals. If he was batting .290, would you be so excited about him? He’d be Phillips-lite.