Rankings Update: Shortstops
A month has gone by since we last updated these rankings, but they haven’t changed too much. The position continues to be one of the toughest to fill in fantasy sports, and the bottom half of this list is comprised of some imperfect candidates, to say the least. But every team needs a shortstop, so let’s take a look.
The Big Three:
1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida (.367 wOBA, .402 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
2. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (.376 wOBA, .369 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
3. Derek Jeter, New York AL (.349 wOBA, .355 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
Jimmy Rollins has to drop out of this tier because of his injury issues. We don’t like to Wally Pipp anyone, but the reality of the situation is that he’s declining physically and his game relies on his athleticism. He’s not all about working the count and getting on base, so if the power and the legs start slipping, it could get a little ugly for Rollins owners.
The Next Best Thing:
4. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia (.469 wOBA, .359 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
5. Jose Reyes, New York NL (.295 wOBA, .353 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
6. Elvis Andrus, Texas (.344 wOBA, .336 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
7. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.377 wOBA, .359 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
8. Stephen Drew, Arizona (.356 wOBA, .341 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
This tier seems pretty uncontroversial. Some may still believe in Rollins, or have given up on Jose Reyes, but this is a solid group of shortstops. They shouldn’t hurt a fantasy team, in other words. Reyes may actually be the lightning rod for discussion, especially placed above a young phenom like Elvis Andrus, but he still retains more power upside than the younger shortstop, and there were some things to like with what Reyes was doing in the second half of May. If he can’t up the walk rate and rediscover his power stroke, though, he’ll move down the list. Andrus might also have some batting average regression coming. Stephen Drew is having a fine season, but with barely-above average power and little speed, he’s just missing those valuable counting stats to move up the list.
The Leftovers:
9. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles NL (.326 wOBA, .328 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
10. Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay (.299 wOBA, .328 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
11. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago AL (.290 wOBA, .327 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
12. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore (.298 wOBA, .332 ZiPS wOBA)
13. Yunel Escobar, Atlanta (.291 wOBA, .340 ZiPS wOBA)
14. Marco Scutaro, Boston (.329 wOBA, .352 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
15. Erick Aybar, Los Angeles (.288 wOBA, .316 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
16. Alex Gonzalez, Toronto (.348 wOBA, .300 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Rafael Furcal and Jason Bartlett drop to this tier for different reasons. Furcal rewarded his owners with more time on the DL, and without the stolen bases he begins to look like an empty batting average. Bartlett isn’t even giving the batting average part of that equation, though, and would drop further down on the list if the rest of the list weren’t so craptastic in its own right. Asdrubal Cabrera will be back on the list when he returns in two months from his forearm fracture. Ryan Theriot, however, has to overcome a platoon situation at second base before he’ll be a valuable shortstop again. An honorable mention goes to Alcides Escobar, who has shown little flashes of his potential and has batted in the second hole some this past month, but the fact that he’s losing starts to Craig Counsell can’t be ignored.
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O Cabrera and Uribe both not even on the list and both are ranked higher then Stephen Drew. I don’t get it- their #s seems pretty sustainable to me.
They should go in that final tier, probably at the expense of the last two guys on the list. Not terribly excited about an old shortstop whose value almost all comes from an empty batting average and a handful of steals or an old shortstop that has had some terrible batting average seasons and is prone to slumping. I really wouldn’t take them over Drew.
O Cab yes, Uribe not so much. Don Juan’s power numbers should dip some over time.
What about Reid Brignac? I would rather have him than Tejada, Aybar, or even Scutaro.
Yunel Escobar’s recent hot streak: 16/37, 3 2B, 4 BB, 1 K, 8 RBI. What I like about this is it’s not BABIP driven, but rather that his K rate is sub 3%. It looks sustainable to me, and is why I’d rather have him than anyone else in Tier 3.
What about Starlin Castro? I’m really hoping he keeps his production up, but I’m guessing you don’t see that as a possibility…
Castro definitely should be on the lower tier. While he hasn’t shown much speed, he still has consistently demonstrated above average contact skills. His 12.9% K rate is a little raw but he’s the youngest player in the majors, and he’s been able to make adjustments at every level so far. While his power surge in the minors didn’t carry over to the majors (for more than one game at least) he still has shown enough power that with a little more patience could have gap power to all fields which can be dangerous enough in Wrigley to make it work.
Of all the Tier 3 SS Yunel Escobar is easily the most likely to make the leap up to Tier 2. He was there last season and the injured groin can be blamed for much of his struggles this season. His walk and K rates are much improved and his fly ball rate is pretty much on par with 2009. His Infield fly rate is his biggest problem and this suggests he’s just missing a lot of pitches. That IFF rate is unlikely to stay where it is for the rest of the season as he starts to square up on balls consistently. Additionally his BABIP is almost .050 off his career pace. All of his peripheral stats suggest it should rise up to career levels. A definite candidate to buy low. His numbers at the end of the year won’t look too good but from this point on they should be in the top 10 among SS.
What does Aviles got to do to get some love?
It seems that he is listed as a 2b on the site.
If you don’t have one of the top 7 or 8 on this list you might as well roll with OC and his reasonable contributions across the board. 80-90 Runs, 8-10 HRs, 70- 80 RBIs, 20-25 steals and .275-.280 will make him the 10th-12th best SS as it has the last couple of years.
O-cab 909 OPS vs LHP and 583 vs RHP. His only upside vs RHP is the off-chance he steals a base. Spot starter if anything.
Nice small sample size sir:
2009 vs RHP .289/.311/.400
2009 vs LHP .271/.327/.362
career vs RHP .271/312/397
career vs LHP 282/346/397
Again, I’m not saying he’s going to perform like a top 5 SS but he’s not going to kill you. Plus, he’s consistent and durable. A couple of the “Leftovers” listed will outperform him but most of them won’t. Take your pick off the list and OC will beat them in at least one, probably two categories while not creating a black hole in any of the others.
Perhalta has actually been playing much better as of late, much better than a lot of the guys in that lower tier like Ramirez.
Andrus is ranked too low. He should easily be ranked #4 and may be more valuable than Jeter. He’ll be at the top of a Rangers lineup that should improve this summer. .300/110R/5HR/55RBI/50+SB is a premier player.
I also disagree with the assessment that Reyes brings more power upside. He may hit a handful more HR than Andrus but should fall behind him in RBI given that he sits atop a middle tier NL offense.
So Andrus will lead Reyes in all categories except maybe 3-5 HR. What gives? I think we have to start projecting Andrus based on his new lineup spot. He’s a lot shinier as a leadoff guy than #9 guy.