Second Base Outcomes: Reader Mock Draft
So we’ve done a pretty thorough bludgeoning of the recent reader mock draft, looking at almost every round except for the fliers, and covering several of the positions along the way as well. Second base has me particularly concerned headed into 2012, so let’s break down how the readers handled the challenge of staffing their squads at that position.
The following chart is pretty self explanatory – where the player was selected in the reader mock, what their average draft position is over at Mock Draft Central, and the difference between the two to the right:
| Player | Reader Mock | MDC ADP | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robinson Cano | 6 | 11 | -5 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 17 | 17 | 0 |
| Ian Kinsler | 28 | 23 | 5 |
| Brandon Phillips | 44 | 60 | -16 |
| Dan Uggla | 59 | 53 | 6 |
| Rickie Weeks | 70 | 78 | -8 |
| Ben Zobrist | 71 | 80 | -9 |
| Chase Utley | 80 | 76 | 4 |
| Howie Kendrick | 92 | 107 | -15 |
| Jason Kipnis | 103 | 162 | -59 |
| Dustin Ackley | 122 | 134 | -12 |
| Danny Espinosa | 126 | 149 | -23 |
| Jemile Weeks | 140 | 152 | -12 |
| Neil Walker | 145 | 139 | 6 |
| Aaron Hill | 226 | 310 | -84 |
| Kelly Johnson | 227 | 329 | -102 |
| Ryan Roberts | 244 | 197 | 47 |
| Jose Altuve | 274 | 228 | 46 |
| Mike Aviles | 279 | 339 | -60 |
| Ryan Raburn | 294 | 346 | -52 |
| Gordon Beckham | 304 | 318 | -14 |
| Daniel Murphy | 313 | 289 | 24 |
| Brian Roberts | 320 | 350 | -30 |
| Alexi Casilla | 329 | 223 | 106 |
It’s a bit surprising to see Robinson Cano go 6th overall, passing up the typical boppers like Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, and Prince Fielder but if you really want Robinson Cano on your team and you’re drafting in the 6 hole, you pretty much have to take him there because he’s not going to last until your next pick. It is interesting to note that in passing up the typical first round first basemen, the team drafting Cano wound up with Ryan Howard, selected in the 10th round (142 ADP) who will likely miss at least a month of action, which leaves him with either Carlos Lee or Aubrey Huff at first for some time. Howard very well could return and rake, so that could certainly work out — I’m merely pointing out the consequences. Feel free to discuss the “would you rather have X 2B and Y 1B” scenarios in the comment section.
Ian Kinsler slips a few slots in lieu of four outfielders taken ahead of him in the third round, and team “32″ winds up with a pretty nice find at 28. Kinsler’s health is frequently in question as he’s often dinged up, but he managed over 700 plate appearances in 2011 and rewarded owners with some eye-popping counting stats. There will be plenty who avoid him due to the .255 batting average, but you likely know it was wrapped up in particularly rotten batted ball luck and should he regress to career norms there, he’ll be back to .275-.280. In traditional 5×5 Roto leagues – if Kinsler stays on the field – he’s probably the most valuable second basemen. He’s just not the safest.
I actually happen to think the Dan Uggla pick was a very good one – and perhaps it’s just because I don’t frequently draft for the batting average. A second baseman that could almost sleep-walk into 30 home runs, 90 RBI, and 90 runs scored is someone I’d like on my squad. Team “Lucky Strikes” had a pretty nice first five picks, going Justin Upton, Mike Stanton, Starlin Castro, Brett Lawrie, and Dan Uggla — ticking off SS, 3B, and 2B rather judiciously.
The next batch of second basemen all fall pretty much within range of their expected slot save for perhaps Brandon Phillips – but here’s where I get kind of lost in the fog of decent contributors at second. I’m not saying they’re all the same, but check out Bill James projections (and no, I’m not saying Bill James is spot on here, but it helps illustrate a point) for the 4th-10th selected 2B (sans Uggla):
| BA | HR | SB | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Phillips | 0.279 | 19 | 15 |
| Rickie Weeks | 0.262 | 22 | 12 |
| Ben Zobrist | 0.262 | 18 | 18 |
| Chase Utley | 0.28 | 21 | 14 |
| Howie Kendrick | 0.287 | 14 | 13 |
| Jason Kipnis | 0.272 | 18 | 18 |
You can quibble a bit with an extra HR or fewer SB here or there, but this is a pretty strikingly similar group. There are of course the questions of the health of Weeks and Utley, the issue of Kipnis and youth, and perhaps the possibility that Zobrist sees his batting average dip again into the abyss. But if you buy into (a sizable if, I’ll admit) the projections – after the top three are selected, you have a bit of an opportunity to wait around on second basemen and fill other needs until, say, one or two are left — and then you should probably make your move. If you patently can’t stand Howie Kendrick or if you don’t want to worry about Utley’s balky knee, then come up with your own plan – but this is just one of those points in the draft that I think creates a unique situation where you do a mid-draft punt. A pooch kick, maybe? Anyway, you get the point.
Lastly, if you’re really well positioned at batting average, Espinosa is a pretty nice play as he’s pretty likely to hit 20+ home runs and might even push 20 stolen bases, but I’d prefer him more in the MDC range of 149 than having to take him in the 11th round. I’m not sure there’s much in the way of promise that the batting average will top .250, and there’s the very real possibility that it could be .20 points lower, which would get to be a real drag.
Overall, I thought it was pretty interesting that four of the 12 teams pretty much took a “to hell with second base” approach, one taking Neil Walker in the 13th, Aaron Hill and Kelly Johnson (back to back) in the 17th and 18th, Jose Altuve in the 23rd, and ahem, Gordon Beckham in the 26th — all ostensibly as starters (with game-time decisions on Hill/Johnson no doubt). I’m not saying it’s good nor bad — just an interesting development that I’m going to keep an eye on in subsequent mocks.
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Probably the most important lesson I learned is unless kinsler or Cano are on the board, wait.
And I like that Beckham pick.
No love for Rickie Weeks’ lil bro, who won’t give you any power but also won’t kill your BA while providing 30-50 SB’s?
I’m in a 10 team keeper league where Cano and Pedroia are certain keepers and Kinsler might be. In that situation it seems like 2B might be a good position to leave open until late in the draft. Last year, I picked up Jemile Weeks midseason just because I needed steals and was quite happy with the results.
I also think Kipnis and Ackley are will be very good value for where they are being drafted.
I like J Weeks quite a bit – but his pick was about right and I didn’t figure I needed to reiterate his skill set to this group.
Would rather have Ackley later in the draft…but I do think Kipnis is great value there.
For where they were taken, I love Kinsler and Utley. I also like Phillips, Kendrick, Kipnis and Cuddyer to out perform their MDPs but they were taken a wee bit early here IMO.
No way Kelly Johnson ends up as “to hell with 2B.” He belongs firmly in the “decent contributors at second” group. Every projection system out there has him at 19 HRs and 13-15 SBs. He could end up producing as well as a 2B taken 150 picks ahead of him. And if he doesn’t, well, it was the 227th pick. He’s pure upside there. He sucked last year. Look past it.
Oliver – you’re right. Good point(s).
Sorry if I sounded a bit harsh–certainly didn’t mean to.
I think it’s totally reasonable to leave off drafting a 2B this year until later, simply because the position is so deep. Even the guys getting drafted later, like Espinosa, have a lot of upside for all their flaws.
This was exactly what I was thinking
Uggla 5×5
2010 .287BA 105RBI 100R 33HR 4SB
2011 .233BA 82RBI 88R 36HR 1SB
Kelly Johnson
2010 .284BA 73RBI 93R 26HR 13SB
2011 .222BA 58RBI 75R 22HR 16SB
basically Uggla lite with more R/RBI chances in TOR as I doubt they hit him leadoff like AZ did. in
I’m really surprised how late Aaron Hill is going. If anyone has the chance to put up similar power stat to Uggla, it’s Hill.
Hill actually seems to have revamped his swing in a way that makes 30+ HR a near impossibility. Would much rather have the 2B he was traded for.
what about Marco Scuturo
What do you think about Kipnis going before Ackley? I thought his whole deal was he is almost is good as Ackley but you could get him later in the draft, or is that just in keeper leagues?
I think in real baseball Ackley is probably more valuable, there were concerns about Kipnis’ glove, though he played well in his stint in CLE last year. But I agree the production is very similar offensively, probably a slight edge to Kipnis in counting stats. I see him more likely 20/20 than Ackley
Kipnis also adds a little more speed, and plays in a slightly better park for hitters.
You are right, at least according to this FG article:
Ackley/Kipnis.
The value of Kipnis was that you could get him after Ackley. When you start to move him up in the draft, as with any player, you are getting less player value per the value of the pick you are using.
Seems I need to work on href, but here is the link:
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/why-you-should-pass-on-ackley-and-wait-for-kipnis/
I think one thing that needs to be said, even if everyone knows it, is that you need two second basemen because who are you going to use to fill your MI slot? A SS? There are only a handful of them that useful in FBB. So I think this article is useful in analyzing the first second baseman selection, but the second one taken is probably more interesting. Do you go the default route and pick up the bottom of the barrel late with most of the others, or do you try to get (hopefully) 20/20 production out of your MI slot with Espinosa in about the 13th round or so… I dunno, but I’m interested.
A really good point, and I’ll tell you that the staff has been kicking around the notion of a MI/CI piece, so I’ll see if I can relay that there’s interest…
I know that is exactly the reason I reached a little bit to grab Espinosa. While I already had Cano to slot in at 2B, I was not going to try and grab 2 SS and reach for one of them. So Espinosa to produce out of MI spot? I’ll take that any day.
I am just hoping that everyone that drafted signs up for the Yahoo league that was created. So we can see how it plays out, or that I can prove my domination!
I never got an email about it. How do I join
I’m “The Drew Henson’s” by the way haha
you can email me and I will shoot you the info
danielc.duff(at)yahoo(dot)com