Sizemore vs. Granderson: Closer Than Most Think
Grady Sizemore and Curtis Granderson are inextricably linked. Both reside in the American League Central, patrolling center field with aplomb while displaying the most diverse set of tools this side of Home Depot. While Sizemore deservedly sits near the top of any draft list that you’ll find, Granderson just does not seem to receive a proper level of admiration. Take this ESPN projection list, for instance. Grady garners first-place honors among center fielders, but Granderson ranks only ninth. While I’m not here to dissuade you from taking Sizemore first, I think it’s worth pointing out that Curtis comes equipped with many of the same virtues, and potentially at a bargain price. Let’s compare our two gifted fly-catchers.
On-Base Ability
Sizemore has posted OBP’s of .375, .390 and .374 over the past three seasons. A highly disciplined hitter (his career Outside-Swing% is 18.8%, compared to a league Avg. near 25%), Sizemore has drawn a free pass between 13-14% over the past two seasons.
Granderson is not quite as patient, but he still gets his fair share of base on balls. Granderson’s OBP’s from 2006-2008 are .335, .361 and .365. He worked a walk 11.4% of the time in 2008 (7.8% in ’07) while improving his O-Swing% from 23.4% in 2007 to 19.8% this past season.
Advantage: Sizemore
Power
Sizemore and Granderson have posted near identical Isolated Power figures during their respective big league careers, with Granderson (.214) ahead of Sizemore (.212) by the slightest of margins. Granderson held a big advantage in 2007, with a .250 ISO compared to Grady’s .185. However, Granderson’s number was due in part to an absolutely ridiculous twenty-three triples. With a more reasonable but still lofty 13 three-baggers in 2008, Curtis saw his ISO settle in at .213, while Grady smacked 33 bombs with a .233 ISO.
Advantage: Push
Base Stealing
When I think of base stealing, I tend to think of doctors. Specifically, the Hippocratic Oath. Some wild, unrestrained runners would serve their teams well by swearing to “above all, do no harm.” A properly leveraged SB can be a very smart play, but the relative value of a stolen base isn’t quite what it’s cracked up to be: according to numbers guru Tom Tango, a SB is worth approximately +.19 runs while a CS chops off a pernicious -.46 runs.
The break-even rate on a SB (that is, the point at which a player is no longer doing harm to his team) is about 67 percent, according to The Book. This might sound abstract, but it has fantasy baseball applications as well: a guy who racks up the SB’s might help you in one category, but if he’s stealing with the “success” rate of a Ryan Theriot (22 SB/13 CS in ’08), he’s costing you possible runs.
While some players compile huge SB totals while costing their club on the base paths, both Sizemore and Granderson have shown the ability to provide quantity and quality. Sizemore has been the consistent SB threat, swiping 22 bags in ’06 (78.6% success rate), 33 in ’07 (76.7%) and 38 in 2008 (88.4%).
Granderson was just about the most effective thief in the game in 2007, snagging 26 SB’s in 27 attempts (96.3%). He didn’t really use those wheels as much this past season, however, nabbing 12 bags in 16 attempts.
Advantage: Sizemore
2009 Projections
CHONE
Sizemore: .286/.386/.503, 28 SB
Granderson: .276/.350/.474, 14 SB
Oliver
Sizemore: .273/.357/.473 (no SB projections)
Granderson: .278/.347/.484
PECOTA
Sizemore: .269/.367/.493, 27 SB
Granderson: .266/.342/.467, 11 SB
Sizemore is very likely the superior player, but don’t forget about the guy holding court in Detroit, either. MVN’s Jeff Freels recently compiled a collection of ADP figures from the likes of CBS, ESPN and Yahoo which showed Sizemore with an ADP of 5. He’s worth that, to be sure. But Granderson? He rated 52nd. If you aren’t fortunate enough to snag the across-the-board production of a Sizemore or a Carlos Beltran, Granderson could be a steal in the 4th or 5th round of your draft, particularly if he turns it loose on the bases once again.
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Good stuff, my one concern is the speed element with granderson. He has never stolen close to 30 bags and I cant see a reason why it might bump up as much as I want to believe. Can you provide some optimism.
He stole 26 in 2007, so he has been close to 30.
Nice, I got Ganderson with the last pick of the 6th round
I reaped the benefits from Granderson last season after he had the poor May coming back from injury. In an OBP league, a jumpy owner dealt him to me for Jay Bruce’s hot start. For whatever reason, Granderson always gets overlooked.
Another point to note, Granderson vastly improved his ability to hit LH pitching last year. He put up his first .700+ OPS (.739) against lefties. In ’07 his OPS against LH was .494! If he can maintain his improvement, I like his chances to keep his batting average in the .280 range.
This is coming from a huge Indians/Sizemore fan. We get to see Granderson quite a bit, and he is fun to watch. But still, he is no Grady!
Comerica is an unbelievable triples park as well, especially for lefties…
This is a good article to compare the real world value of the 2 players, but doesnt mention common fantasy stats.
I dont know anyone, when talking about fantasy (ie HRs), would say grady and granderson have equal power. Grady will hit more HRs than granderson, end of story.
grady hit 90 RBIs!!!!! out of the leadoff spot last year and has avg about 80 RBIs in each of his full seasons, granderson has avg about 70 RBIs in each of his full seasons. grady has the possibility of moving down the order, thus improving his RBI numbers, while granderson has about 0 chance of leaving the leadoff spot.
in real life, granderson is an awesome player, but in fantasy 5×5 fantasy (or similar variation), theres no comparison.
No comparison? When you’re getting Granderson quite a bit later and nearly getting equal stats, I think it’s a better value.
Matt, can you please explain the equal stats portion of your comments?
i think my previous post and the article show differently. grady will hit 5-10 more HRs. grady will have 10 more RBIs (possibly 30 more if he hits 3rd), grady will steal 15 more bases, but granderson will hit for .005-.010 higher in BA.
id love to be in a league with you so i can trade you granderson for sizemore SU.
once again, granderson, by the means of the stats used in this article, is very comparable to grady IN REAL LIFE, but in fantasy its not close.
Calm down fantasy man. You’re putting words in his mouth – he said “nearly equal”, not equal. He said “better value”, not that Granderson is better nor did he mention anything about trading them straight up. Granderson will score more runs – he had 11 more R last year and he missed a month. Granderson will hit for a higher average. Sizemore will have a few more HR and maybe 10 more RBI. Sizemore will likely steal a significantly higher amount of stolen bases, but that is not a given – in 2007 he only had 7 more SB…
When you can pick Granderson 50 picks after Sizemore, that does perhaps give the opportunity for more value. Yes, Sizemore is better. The question is, is he 4 rounds better?
In fantasy, it is close. Using the 5×5 format you used as an example, it is close enough to say that Granderson shouldn’t be going 50 picks after Sizemore, or that Sizemore shouldn’t be going 50 picks before Granderson.
What that Matt said!
What’s the point in comparing them if you’re going to use generalities like “nearly” and “almost”? They don’t make for a very sound argument….
Granderson rankes 84th overall in my 6×6 (+OBP, +SLG, -AVG) league, right behind Jacoby Ellsbury. He graded out as an exactly average player ($13).
What poor analysis. Granderson is a joke. Later.
I still don’t understand why people even bother leaving comments like this.
Sorry, but the headline and your opening paragraph do not seem to jive with the stats and the bulk of the article. Sizemore is way better at getting on base. Sizemore is going to steal way more bases. Sizemore is going to hit way more homeruns. Sizemore has better power once you take away the silly triple numbers from 07. Sizemore is projected to outhit Granderson by every major projection system, and its ususally not close. Sizemore will end up with more RBIs. And, not that it matters for fantasy, but Sizemore is the superior defender.
Sorry, but Sizemore is a top 5 player in real life and in fantasy. Granderson is a top 50-75 player. The two just don’t belong in the same discussion.
I second that….the difference isn’t huge in any one category, but when you add up Grady’s advantage in 5 of 6 categories, it is significant.
I don’t see how they’re closer than people think. And I don’t see how he’s any great bargain at #52. Here are the CF’s ranked ahead of him in Yahoo (which has him at 50):
Sizemore
Hamilton
Upton
Beltran
Suzuki
#52 sounds just about right to me.
If you are going to talk about a center fielder who’s a bargain, talk about Lastings Milledge. He has the potential to put up 20 hr and 30 stolen bases along with a good average, and you don’t even have to think about drafting him until well over 100 picks are off the board.
I follow the Nationals and I doubt Millage hits 20 homers or steals 30 bases. He is a defensive liability and a loafer. So he would need a huge change in attitude to reach those numbers. He clearly does not love to play the game and rarely tries his best on any play. The other day in a spring game he was caught standing around while every other player was doing stretches. The strength coach had to get right in his face to make him stretch. I am a huge Nats fan and I wouldn’t take millage the top 250 picks. I have far more hope for someone like Fred Lewis to go 20/20. Than Millage.
Is it really so unthinkable for a toolsy 24 year old who went 14/24 last year to go 20/30 this year?
Yeah I was thinking what Wally said….he already hit 14 homeruns and stole 24 bases last year. He is a year older, and had a great second half last year. What’s to stop him from adding a few homeruns and steals to last year’s totals just because he doesn’t like to stretch? Frankly, I can’t blame him….
Also, when has Fred Lewis ever shown 20 homerun power? He is 28, so I doubt his xbh’s are a sign of more homeruns to come.
Look Granderson versus Sizemore in 2007.
Size: 118 R, 24 HR, 78 RBI, 33 SB, .277 AVG, .851 OPS in 628 AB
Grand: 122 R, 23 HR, 74 RBI, 26 SB, .302 AVG, .913 OPS in 612 AB
In 2008,
Size: 101 R, 33 HR, 90 RBI, 38 SB, .268 AVG, .876 OPS in 634 AB
Grand: 112 R, 22 HR, 66 RBI, 12 SB, .280 AVG, .858 OPS in 533 AB
If you give Granderson the same amount of ABs as Sizemore due to Granderson’s injury:
133 R, 27 HR, 78 RBI, 14 SB, .280 AVG, .858 OPS
That’s leading the entire MLB in Rs by 8 and 15 over second place. It becomes a matter of what your team needs at that point.
Also, only 11 players in the entire history of baseball have repeated 30-30 seasons. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/30-30_club Which is Sizemore? One of the most unique athletes ever to play the game or merely one of the greats like a Carlos Beltran? There is nothing wrong with Carlos Beltran, I’d take Beltran over Granderson even but Curtis Granderson is not just merely Shane Victorino or Alex Rios either guys. We are just one year removed from Granderson being a higher ranked fantasy player than Sizemore and just a year and a half separates these two players in age (March ’81 for Grand, August ’82 for Size). Meanwhile, Sizemore has over 700 ABs more than Granderson at 2,700 vs. 2,000 basically so you can’t say that Sizemore is going to improve because of his age and Granderson won’t.
so if i see your stats correctly reality check, sizemore is improving his HR, RBI, SB totals while granderson is getting hurt, not stealing bases, and losing .022 pts off his BA.
just playing devils advocate with you.
but the whole 30/30 arugment is a dumb one bc in reality 30 HRs and 30 SBs are arbitrary numbers. IMO 29/30 is just as impressive as 30/30, but it doesnt meet the arbitrary standards thus wouldnt be classified as 30/30.
I think the the reasoning among many of the sizemore “lovers” and granderson “haters” is sizemore has been very consistant the last 4 years (besides BA which many ppl on here would have you believe isnt that consistent to begin with). you know you are getting 110/25/80/30/.275
granderson, had 1 career year 2 years ago, you take that year out and youre left with ichiro without the SBs or the BA.
i think a case could be made for anyone drafted rnd 5 or later as being a better “value” than a first round pick, but players are first round picks for a reason. As Jim said, milledge is better value as a rnd 15+ draft pick than granderson is at rnd 5, or kelly johnson is better value at rnd 20 than brandon phillips is at rnd 2.
Brian – for such a huge Nats fan, I am worried about your inability to spell “Millage’s” last name. Kind of sounds like a hotel in Vegas… The Millagio
If it makes anyone feel better, I managed to draft the majority of the players mentioned in this thread all to one team. Sizemore, Beltran, Phillips, Granderson, in that order and Milledge later on with the 125th pick.
As for the argument at hand, David doesn’t specifically say that Granderson based on ADP, and the stats he provides is a better “value pick” then Grady Sizemore, but that’s the underlying message.
Personally I think that Sizemore is one of the brightest young stars in the game. The only knock against him is his low batting average which can and likely will be fixed with a rebound in the Babip department, which saw him record a .291 mark after posting .334, .342, .335, .300 over the past 4 years. A .275-.280 average is not out of the question.
For those in Points leagues, Sizemore should be an even higher draft pick, not only do his great power and stolen base prowess, but as mentioned he possesses a great eye and generates a ton of free passes.
As for Granderson, I like the guy alot, and to have him as my number 3 OF is enough reason for me to brag. He’s obviously got decent pop, mid 20′s power, but I don’t see the speed returning to the near 30 form he showed in 2007. Mid teens, 15-17 is all that I’m expecting that department, but that’s good enough. A fourth-fifth round pick, that generates 120r, 24hr, 70rbi, 15sb, .280 average is fine by me.
If you opt to pass on Sizemore in the first, Beltran in the second and Ichiro in the third, then Granderson is a fine consolation prize in the fourth round.
Good article, even better arguments from the fans.
Keep it up.
I fully agree with this analysis. I just wanted to point out that situations like this are the main reason I only play in point-based leagues, and never 5×5. I hate when players are compared to each other based on how many “categories” they can help you with.
I was in a 5×5 league where a guy gave me Chase Utley for Brian Roberts, straight-up, because he “had enough homeruns but needed more steals.”
That’s just way too different from actual baseball for me. If the Phillies ever traded Chase Utley for Brian Roberts because Utley doesn’t run enough, I think they would have to declare Marshall Law in Philadelphia.
Absolutely ridiculous argument
grandersons never hit more than 74 rbis
26 steals only in 2007 last year stole 12 bases
Hits about .280 lifetime
Sizemore hits around 85 rbis a year, 90 last year
about 35 average stolen bases
hits about .270
hits 10+ homeruns
Rather take Francisco Liriano or McLouth if your talking about value
by 10+ i mean 10+ more than granderson
The present is so often best understood after recalling the past.
Golebiewski is looking on-point in retrospect. The thrust of the article concerns perception, the point being that while Sizemore may be the better player, the actual difference in value is not so great as popular perception would lead one to believe.