Smoltz Under Water?
Repeat after me: 15 innings is not a significant sample size. This much we know. But three starts and fifteen innings in, much of baseball is still looking at John Smoltz and trying to figure out what’s left in the tank. Let’s join in, shall we?
The ‘normal’ stats that measure rate will fail us, but they do tell a story. His pinpoint control is still there – his 1.80 walks per nine would only count as his fourth-best full season if he kept it up, and it is right in line with his 2.63 career rate. The strikeout rate is the problem: at six Ks per nine, he’s well off his 7.97 career rate. The 54% strand rate and the .382 BABIP are blips on the radar, but if he can’t get the K-rate back up, he’ll be in trouble.
He’s been to this rodeo before. He had elbow surgeries in 1994, 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2005. The one in 2000 was of the Tommy John variety. Not surprisingly, he’s seen strikeout dips of this magnitude in 1999 and 2005 after his other surgeries. And he’s seen many rebounds in his strikeout rate as well. Will he rebound this year? Let’s take a look at the pitch f/x data so far this year.
He’s lost some velocity, but going from 92.5 MPH on his fastball to 91.5 MPH shouldn’t rob him of all of his effectiveness. The slider going from 87 MPH in 2007 to 84.8 MPH is a little more worrisome, and that’s why his vaunted slider (worth over 20 runs in 2006 and 2007) is only worth 1.7 runs this year. But people are still swinging at 38% of his pitches outside the zone so the movement is possibly more important than the velocity.
Amazingly, the movement is mostly there. His fastball is moving exactly the same as it did in 2007, and he uses it about as much as he did before (over 40%), so at least 40% of his pitches are moving about the same. The changeup has retained its velocity and its horizontal movement, but has lost about an inch-plus of vertical drop since 2007. Maybe because it’s the secondary pitch that has retained its velocity and movement best, he’s begun using it a little more – all the way up to 19.8% this year (11.3% career).
But the slider. Ah, the slider. The slider has not only lost two-and-a-half miles per hour since 2007, but it’s also lost an inch-and-a-half of vertical drop. And there’s the rub. That’s fifteen innings of reduced movement and velocity in a Hall of Fame pitch. The Smoltz slider that has racked up over 200 wins, 150 saves, and a .789 postseason winning percentage – that slider is currently missing.
From reviewing his game charts from 2007, it looks like he’s had some temporary loss of movement in his slider before. Unfortunately, it looks like he lost much of that movement late in 2007, so it could have been when he was wearing down. If he’s missing that movement now, early in the season, it may bode poorly for him. For now though, repeat after me: 15 innings is not a significant sample size.
8
Smoltz has a promising start (against KC) before the All-Star break. After the break the breathers are few and far between. He’s going to have to shape up in a hurry.
His FIP is currently 2.51. His velocity and movement on all of his pitches are only slightly worse than in previous seasons. 1.5 inches of movement loss isn’t significant. He’s fine
Also:
“The slider going from 87 MPH in 2007 to 84.8 MPH is a little more worrisome, and that’s why his vaunted slider (worth over 20 runs in 2006 and 2007) is only worth 1.7 runs this year.”
That is ridiculous. Pitch value’s aren’t defense independent, meaning his ~.400 BABIP is reflected in his pitch rankings. Also, there is no evidence that velocity of off speed pitches has anything to do with their effectiveness. In fact, a larger speed differential is probably a positive.
He lost speed on his fastball and his slider, so there’s no speed differential increase.
There may not be mathematical evidence that velocity has to do with effectiveness, but pitches have two main characteristics: velocity and movement. His slider has lost both velocity and movement. You don’t believe that’s significant? It’s game of inches, and he’s lost inches.
I actually think the lost movement is more important than the lost speed. 1 MPH of lost velocity he can deal with. I wish we had pitch f/x data going back his whole career, but at least in the last three years, his lost movement is unprecedented if it were to continue all year.
I stand by my analysis that he needs to find something he has lost so far this season in that slider or he’ll have a hard time, good FIP or no.
You do realize that FIP would reflect that “hard time” he would supposedly have.
Yes I do, but the competition is going to get harder from here on out. With a 6 K/9, something is wrong. That is not the Smoltz I know. I attempted to figure out what was wrong by looking at his movement and velocity. FIP is not everything.
6 K/9 is only relevant to how it relates to his effectiveness. Plenty of pitchers are good with a low K rate as long as they don’t walk to many hitters and keep the ball on the ground. Smotlz has been doing that this year.
When you say “FIP isn’t everything”, I’m really not sure what you mean. If you are saying that Smoltz’s decline in stuff will lead to things other than decline in performance, than… ok.
Smoltz’ K/9 is relevant in how it relates to his effectiveness past, present and future. In the past, he’s been a strikeout pitcher with a K/9 largely over 8 since he found himself as a pitcher. Is your stance is that Smoltz will re-invent himself as a groundball, low-strikeout pitcher at 42? I doubt that is what is happening.
When I say that FIP isn’t everything, I mean that his current FIP, accrued against inferior competition, is not everything in determining his future performance, which will be against superior competition.
OK, I understand now. Perfectly reasonable.
I think the real question is how many times Smoltz has had a 15 inning stretch with a 6 K/9 rate during his career, not how his K rate currently stacks up agianst his career rate. I would guess quite a few. Just saying, I don’t think a 6 K/9 over 15 innings is a whole lot to worry about.
That said, 2 more words:
CLAY BUCHHOLZ
Move Smoltz to the Pen.
You’re right, as well. I did not say that exactly in the article. I should have mentioned the competition he faced, and maybe gone into his game logs for this year. However, I’m bound by my format.
Fire in the sky.
Yes! One person got it. Thanks Eric!
Haha, I figured it would be the first comment!
Just for the record, with his 7 K in 5 IP last night, Smoltz now has a 7.65 K/9. In other words, trying to determine anything from 15 IP is just not a good idea. The guy was coming off major shoulder surgery after all, let’s give him a bit longer to get his bearings before we make judgment on him.
Yes Smoltz struck out 7 and allowed 4 hits over 5 innings but it took him 97 pitches to get through those 5 innings against one of the worst hitting teams in the league. Pitches that used to put batters away are being fouled off.
His vertical movement was up a tick on the slider, but the horizontal movement went down a tick and velocity stayed the same. I’d take away the fact that he threw many more sliders in that start vs KC as a positive, though. At least he trusts his arm to throw them. I remember (anecdotal I know) that he threw fewer sliders before and after many of his prior surgeries.
But now he’s throwing them again. Hopefully the movement will follow, and obviously the strikeouts were there. The reduced movement and the better teams of the American League still wait for him, though.