Spring Training Silliness
Spring training statistics just aren’t that helpful. Between the small sample sizes and the varying levels of competition (some pitchers get Albert Pujols; others get Brad Eldred), it’s extremely difficult to decipher what is meaningful and what is just plain noise. The leader boards this time of the year may make one feel as though they have gone down the rabbit hole into Wonderland. As such, it’s best not to get caught up in particularly hot or cold performances. Here are just a few examples of why you should view spring training numbers with a highly skeptical eye:
Brett Gardner: 3 home runs, .875 SLG% in 24 AB
Career minor league SLG%: .385
Career minor league HR: 9 in 1,456 AB
Rajai Davis: .864 SLG%
Career minor league SLG%:.407
Career major league SLG%: .354
Glen Perkins: 12 IP, 1.50 ERA
Career major league FIP: 4.87
Aaron Cook: 15 K’s in 14 IP
Career major league K/9: 3.58
There will be plenty of players labeled poised for a breakout season based on 100 at-bats or 30 strong innings in March, but it’s prudent not to place any great emphasis on, say, Gardner’s ability to take Brad Mills deep or Cook’s penchant for striking out young prospects and Quad-A hitters. Don’t ignore spring training entirely. But, if you’re making important decisions based on a guy’s numbers in the Grapefruit League, you’re more than likely going to be disappointed.
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Rototimes is guilty of a lot of this kind of pontificating. It’s fine to point out that Cliff Lee has had a couple of bad outings this spring…but one should also point out that he had a 5.68 ERA last spring before his breakout season. Without historical context of the impact of Spring Training numbers from prior years, it’s useless to know how good or bad Spring Training numbers are in analyzing fantasy impact going forward. My guess is pretty useless.
Spring Training stats are only really good for two reasons for upcoming fantasy season: health/recovery and opportunity. How’s Nick Johnson doing? (Actually I have know idea), but if he shows some decent stats he may be worth taking a late flyer in drafts if he’s back to norm. Then you have complete messes like the Seattle closer situation or the Pirates outfield – who’s gonna step up?
I dont think anyone is looking at Gardner’s spring and thinking they are getting a big power bat, but a hot spring might be good enough to win a job. I believe he has 3 or 4 SBs this spring also and that is no fluke and what people will pay for. I think Gardner’s statistics this spring will play a role in him getting a starting job, and because almost all of us will be drafting before the official starter gets named stats is one of the only things we have to go on.