Stay Away from Furcal
One of the premier fantasy shortstops from 2003-2006, Rafael Furcal has fallen off the map the past two years.
From 2003-2006, Furcal averaged 14 homers and 34 steals a year with a .289/.354/.433 line, numbers anyone would take from their starting fantasy shortstop. Furcal dropped off a bit in 2007, hitting .270/.333/.355 with 6 homers and 25 steals. Still not terrible numbers, but nothing compared to what he had done in the recent past. Part of his problem is 2007 was ankle injury that bothered him and forced him to the DL, and a lower back issue that popped up later in the year.
The big turning point for Furcal was that back injury, because it never got any better. He underwent surgery in May of 2008 after playing only 36 games. In those 36 games he looked tremendous, but a small sample size and fluky BABIP threw that right out the window.
Some owners, however, believed that a fixed back combined with a great month in 2008 would bring Furcal back to fantasy greatness. If you were one of those owners, stop reading this article now, climb onto your roof, and jump. Last year, Furcal hit .269/.335/.375, cranked 9 balls out of the park but swiped only 12 bases in 18 tries. Not good.
If I told you a random shortstop had ankle problems and back surgery, followed by a continued downward trend of his fantasy numbers, would you draft him? No, you wouldn’t. Don’t get sucked in by Furcal’s past returns, just stay away. It’s for your own good.
Right now, Furcal is the ninth shortstop off the board, being selected around pick 127 according to Mock Draft Central. Why do owners continue to reach for Furcal hoping he will fill their needs at shortstop? I’d much rather have Elvis Andrus (180), or Ryan Theriot (275) than Furcal, and they are being picked at a much more attractive position.
This story shouldn’t be anything special. Player A gets hurt, is a little old and doesn’t produce. Fantasy owners draft him high wishfully thinking he will bounce back. Don’t. When someone in your league drafts Furcal, look at them, point, and laugh.
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ok i was one of those Furcal owners but I was a rookie and didnt see the folly. Furcal is long gone from my team, but I have Alexei Ramirez and Yunel Escobar…which one to keep?? I don’t need both.
I’m more of a Ramirez guy, but that depends on what your team needs. Ramirez gives you more steals, minus AVG. If you have good steals and need to improve your AVG, go with Yunel.
I think Yunel is the more solid option, particularly for average. His peripherals are solid.
Alexei I like this year, as there’s a good chance he falls due to “sophomore slump whiplash.” He was overdrafted last year, stats were disappointing, yet his EYE improved a lot. Could be great value this year and his ceiling is higher than Yunel’s.
If the rest of your team is strong, I’d keep Yunel. If you need upside from that position, then Alexei.
I do LOVE IT when teams draft a guy like Furcal.
Wish there was more analysis out there on this category of player. If you don’t get a stud 1B in the first 15 picks (which, at #3 I’m not likely to)…then do you count on solid production from Berkman? Derek Lee? Or better to go for upside with a Butler or Morales?
I’ve undervalued veterans for a long time–fearing they all are going to decline when many are still productive. Be nice to know who is truly in the “cross ‘em off your list” bucket, similar to Furcal, and who has legit bounceback potential.
Following your lead on veterans and decline, what about Beltran, Carlos Lee, and Soriano? Where do people rank these three aging superstars in comparison with each other? MDC has them at 65, 68, and 69 in the current ADP report.
Beltran was very productive while healthy last season (.398 wOBA in 09). Not really comparable to Furcal in any way
Haven’t checked Hittracker, but I’m concerned about anyone racking up a lot of HR at Citi Field. If those are a bit harder to come by, and his speed is more at risk with age/injury…I’m fine waiting on Beltran. After pick #70 I might start watching him. Is McCutchen a better option for the same draft pick?
Lee’s EYE is just phenomenal. Legit .300 hitter. Has played in at least 160 games 4 out of the last 5 seasons. But at age 34 I’d want him at a good discount. (He’s the type of player I used to ignore, giving others that good discount.) But I’d still prefer someone like Carlos Quentin over him if we’re talking bargain OF.
Soriano, for me, is in the same boat as Vlad. They’re both guys I want to see drafted by someone else. But yes, sorting through these types of players, of varying ages/histories/risks/expectations is exaclty what I’m talking about!
pr makes a good point though. There’s a difference between DL risk and production risk. Beltran + inury replacement could be far better than a lot of OF. Soriano, on the other hand, might be a guy you “can’t” drop, but kills you with a bad half.
Regarding Beltran and Citi Field — the Mets hit more HRs at home than on the road last year, and Mets pitchers allowed more at home than on the road. It’s only one year, but Citi is looking at worse neutral for HRs so far.
Andruws will be incredibly underrated this season. A .275 SS with 5-10 HR pop and 40+ SB ability is just gold. Compare that to other late picks like Theriot (.275-80/20SB/2 HR) or early ones like Furcal and you’ve got yourself some value
I keep thinking his ADP is going to shoot up before the season. Going to be on a LOT of sleeper/breakout lists. So far, his draft position screams crazy value.
I have my own projection system based on xBABIP which doesnt work very well on young players, but utilizing last yrs numbers, here is what Andrus’ projections pop out
Elvis Andrus
2009 xBABIP: 0.347
2009 BABIP: 0.307
Actual slashline 0.267/0.329/0.373 (0.702 OPS)
xSlashline: 0.302/0.361/0.408 (0.769 OPS)
Now, I don’t claim Andrus to be a .300 hitter, but an almost def. .280 kind of guy I would say so
“Regarding Beltran and Citi Field — the Mets hit more HRs at home than on the road last year, and Mets pitchers allowed more at home than on the road. It’s only one year, but Citi is looking at worse neutral for HRs so far.”
More home than road doesn’t mean Citi is neutral. Wright hit 5 at home and 5 on the road, but it’s possible that Citi’s dimensions affected his swing/psyche and, therefore, road HR.
Shea wasn’t a hitter’s paradise, and looking at HR/game 2008 vs Citi in 2009, it looks like Citi gave up about 25% fewer…which is significant IMO. If Beltran is expected to hit around 24 total, 12 at home…then I’d say 3 of those are at risk.
It’s not like I think he’ll do what Wright did in 09, and I expect DW to bounce back into the 20s. But HR “upside” from a Met doesn’t seem likely. It’s just enough of a question mark to make me wait an extra round or two on him is all.
Jimbo, “… it looks like Citi gave up about 25% fewer…”
This is always tricky. How much of the change was due to Citi vs. Shea, and how much due to changes in the Mets team (trades, injuries, etc.). The Mets’ road HRs (hit and allowed) were 24% fewer, but I don’t think you would say that the other 15 NL parks got 24% tougher to hit homeruns in.
Total HR/game in the park would also be driven by visiting teams, which I wouldn’t expect to change much 08 to 09. And the fact that they hit 24% fewer on the road is probably a combination of lineup and Citi-impact.
I can’t see any other explanation for DW hitting FIVE road homers, other than Citi “got into his head.” I’ve mentioned this before, but I saw the same thing happen with some Padres when they moved to Petco…another example of a team going from a pitcher’s park to and extreme pitcher’s park.
Sorry, not much data to back up those impressions. If I’m wrong, then the rest of my league will benefit from drafting all the Mets I pass on this year. ;-)
I have heard some comments on how the specific changes impact players. Bay, for example, is thought to be more of a pull hitter…so the Mets think his power will do okay there. Wright is more of an alley guy, and that’s who Citi will hurt the most.
Beltran’s HR last year? Almost a freakishly even distribution from left to right…so does he get pull-concious in 2010??? That’s the sort of unknown that concerns me.
In Furcal’s last 15 games he had 2 homers and 6 stolen bases. Admittedly a tiny sample, but maybe it took a while to heal up from back surgery. Maybe not worth earlier rounds, but I think he may be worth taking a flyer on later if everyone else is acting on this advice and ignoring him.
you spelled his name wrong. it’s Furball
Furcal – 102runs/14hr/52rbi/27sb/.285avg
Back surgery is 2 years guys
Furcal has at least 2 more good years in the sun.
Furcal having a decent year so far. The avg is propped up by a .343 BABIP (.323 career) but his LD% is up. The stolen bases are there 8 out of 9 attempts, but the power is not (No HRs to date). Still with a .117 iso and .429 SLG Dodger Stadium can’t suppress the HRs all season.
When Furcal drops off, who do you keep, Ayabar or Alexie?