Comments on: Stock Watch: 6/15

By: NadavT

NadavT — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 16:07:12 +0000

Fair enough. That is unsustainably high. But he has managed to sustain an HR/FB % of 20.3% over his last 425 plate appearances (between 2008 and 2009). How likely is he to fall far below that going forward?

By: Josh2

Josh2 — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 07:55:22 +0000

24.1% HR/FB basically means Alex Rodriguez power (23.8% since being tracked in 2002).

By: NadavT

NadavT — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 21:05:12 +0000

I appreciate you taking a stab at estimating what Zobrist’s performance will be like for the rest of the season, but I’m skeptical about relying on the ZiPS projection in his case. ZiPS calls for a .188 ISO for the rest of the season, but between last season and this season, he’s managed a .300 ISO over 363 ABs. There’s really nothing in his statistical profile this season that screams regression: his BABIP is at .325, his LD% is at 19.2%, and his HR/FB is at 24.1% — all higher than his career averages, but not unsustainably high. Even his HR profile at hittracker.com doesn’t indicate that he’s been getting lucky with his HRs. I’m not trying to argue that he’s going to continue at this pace, but I doubt that his regression will be as steep as ZiPS projects. How steep it will be is something I still can’t figure out.

By: Joe Twinsfan

Joe Twinsfan — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 19:52:46 +0000

I traded Liriano for Baker earlier in the season and have been quite happy with the results. Remember Baker missed a lot of spring training and stared the season on the DL. So taking into account that and the fluky high home run rate (his HR/FB rate was at 29% when I got him, been trending lower since I got him), I’d drop Liriano for Baker in a heartbeat. Liriano is still struggling with control.

Of course, I’d like to see what other pitchers you have and could drop before I’d let Liriano go yet…

By: brian recca

brian recca — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 19:08:33 +0000

Should I drop Liriano for either Baker or Nolasco?

By: John

John — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 18:07:34 +0000

Zobrist is SS-eligible in my league, and I’m using him there. I hope he exceeds the projections, but even if he doesn’t he’ll still be better than Theriot, who I had. It might be a tougher decision when Asdrubal comes back.

By: Nate M

Nate M — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 17:48:41 +0000

I hope the trends of Nolasco and Baker continue. I was able to get both of those guys via the free agent pool. I had to waste a high claim for Nolasco, thus losing out on the Tommy Hanson-a-thon. Baker has been phenomenol, and Nolasco is looking like the 2nd half stud he was last year.

Now is the time for me to determing if Johan is hurting (poor velocity past couple starts) or if it is a fluke. Any opinions?