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Strategy Session – Steals Early and Late

I don’t know about you, but stolen bases are incredibly annoying for me. There are very few players who can steal bases and help in other ways as well, and these players naturally tend to be highly valued. As such, I’ve developed a strategy for steals: try to get ‘em early, and then wait until late. Here’s why:

There aren’t many guys who can steal 30+ bases and hit for power. There are a fair amount of guys who can steal a bunch of bases and not really do much else, however. The five dimensional players like Grady Sizemore and Hanley Ramirez are among the best in the game, and are probably first round picks. Then there are the few players who can be counted on for a ton of steals, even if they won’t add too much power, like Carl Crawford and Jose Reyes. If you can get any of these guys, go for it, as they provide a tremendous amount of value. However, these types of players are almost always drafted before the third round, and it’s difficult to get one of them, let alone two.

After these types of players, there is a huge drop off among speedsters. A guy who will steal 20-30 bases with a decent batting average and nothing else just isn’t very valuable in a fantasy league, since he really only provides value in one category, and often times not even that much value. Avoid these types of players, as they are almost always overvalued. People are (rightly) concerned with the scarcity of speed, but they don’t understand that you can often find speedy players at the end of the draft.

Yes, usually these speedsters have more flaws than their fellow base stealers who are drafted earlier, but the difference in value is minimal. If you miss out on someone like Reyes or Sizemore, you still need to address steals, but you don’t particularly care if the guy also hits 2 homers or 11 homers. The difference in the amount of homers he hits is negligible – it’s all about the steals. The same goes for other categories. You don’t really care how many runs he drives in, you just want thefts. Don’t pay extra for minimal upgrades in other categories.

Be sure to add enough steals to your team, but don’t worry if you have to get the bulk of your steals late in the draft with such no-name players as Eugenio Velez, Michael Bourn, Carlos Gomez or Rajai Davis. Their thefts are just as valuable as someone like Chone Figgins’s, and the difference in other categories is not usually big enough to warrant the higher draft position of someone like Figgins.

Make sure you have enough steals on your team, but don’t worry if you have to wait until late in the draft to add that category to your team.


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7 Responses to “Strategy Session – Steals Early and Late”

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  1. Jim says:

    The main difference between Figgins and the rest of the people on that list is that he will contribute greatly in the AVG and OPB departments, whereas the others are truly 1-category contributors.

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  2. Jim says:

    I always try to take the “Sizemore-lite” players who can do a little bit of everything. If you have, say, Milledge (15 hr and 25 sb) and Pence (25 hr and 15 sb) in the outfield, you will probably get a combined 40 homeruns and 40 stolen bases between them, on the conservative side. That’s like having David Ortiz (maybe 38 hr) on a good year and Chone Figgins (2 hr and 40 sb), who you would have to spend higher draft picks on. Even if the players aren’t elite in any category, 2 of them combined is like having 2 players who specialize in one category and are probably considered more valuable. See what I mean?

    I do agree though that taking pure speed early can be costly. The main offender I always see going early is Ichiro Suzuki. He is a 3-category fiorce but I don’t think there’s any way that type of player should go so early.

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  3. Jim says:

    Plus, if Pence and Milledge have breakout seasons, you could be looking at 50 homeruns and 50 stolen bases.

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  4. D Wrek says:

    I like that stratedy too. Rather than having a Ryan Braun type and a Wily Tavares type, I like to go with a couple 20/20 types like Hart, Rios, Kemp, etc.

    I find steals can be like saves. Some people tend to panic, then end up with too many. As the article suggests, I agree steals can be had on the cheap.

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  5. Yakker says:

    “He is a 3-category force but I don’t think there’s any way that type of player should go so early.”

    I assume that means you avoid Ryan Howard too?

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  6. Jim says:

    No. The point of the article is to say that cheap steals can be had late. Can you find someone late in the draft who can hit 50 homeruns? Hell no. Can you find someone late in the draft who will steal 30-40 bases? Yes. Several are named in this article.

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  7. Jim says:

    by “that type” I meant speedy and little production.

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