The curious case of Kemp
Finally given the chance to play every day in 2008, the 23-year-old Matt Kemp had quite a season: he hit .290/.340/.459 with 18 homers and 35 steals. Kemp sported a very high BABIP for the second season in a row, but all indications are that Kemp should be able to maintain this high BABIP in the future.
Kemp posted a .363 BABIP this year, thanks in large part to the fact that he hit line drives 23% of the time. In fact, Kemp has posted consistently high BABIPs throughout his career: his 2007 BABIP was an absurd .417, while his BABIP in the minors has ranged from .345 to .417. Thus, while Kemp’s BABIP is quite high, there’s no reason to think that he can’t maintain this level of BABIP going forward. Thus, while his .290 batting average may seem a bit high upon first glance at his BABIP, there’s a very good chance that it represents his true ability, rather than a fluke.
Kemp has always been young for his level throughout the minors, and indeed was only 23 last year. Any 23-year-old that can slug .459 is a heck of a player, and is likely to develop more power in the coming years. Given that Kemp is very toolsy, while 18 homers is pretty good, there’s reason to expect increased power output in the future. There’s certainly no guarantee that Kemp will hit more homers in 2009 than he did in 2008, but it’s fairly likely.
Furthermore, Kemp’s 35 stolen bases are extremely valuable for fantasy purposes. He was caught 11 times, and Joe Torre has shown a willingness to turn him loose on the basepaths that he will likely demonstrate once again in 2009. Kemp didn’t slow down in the second half of the season, and therefore it’s unlikely that he will run less in 09 than he did in 08.
Finally, it appears that Kemp has locked up a full-time position in the Dodgers outfield. Going in to 2008, there was a lot of consternation amongst folks on the internet about how the Dodgers’ outfield situation would play out. It was clear to many that Kemp should be playing every day, but some questioned whether Joe Torre would bench Kemp in favor of established veterans like Juan Pierre or Andruw Jones. That didn’t happen, and Kemp responded with an excellent season. Kemp’s production in 2008 makes it quite unlikely that Torre will bench him for an extended period of time in 2009, so Kemp’s playing time is likely secured even if he goes in to a slump.
Although I was concerned at first about his BABIP, there’s every reason to think that Kemp will be able to maintain a high BABIP in the future. If he cuts down on the strikeouts (he struck out in over 25% of his at bats in 2008), his batting average could rise even further. He’s a good bet to attempt at least 40 stolen bases, and there’s reason to believe that he could produce even more homers next year. Although the secret is out about Kemp, I believe that many people may not recognize just how good he could be, and therefore he may be undervalued on draft day.
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Thank god somebody finally recognizes that his ridiculous BABIP numbers tie in with his LD% numbers. In addition, for better or worse (usually worse), he hits a ton of groundballs and has plus speed, so his BABIP should be higher than normal anyway.
Last year in my keeper league, someone dumped Wright, Soriano, Lidge, and Jenks for Kemp and some scrubs in return. I was not that crazy about Kemp at the time and thought it was more than a slightly lopsided trade, but it ended up going through anyway.
To me he seems like a Bobby Abreu type player. 20-30 HRs, 30 SBs with decent average. Also, his K% came down considerably towards the end of last season, hopefully a sign of things to come.
Do I keep Kemp or Ethier?! Hmmm
Abreu? Abreu is super patient though. Kemp has a pretty pathetic BB%. To me, he is an Alfonso Soriano clone…
Kemp will likely never be a walk machine, but it is important to keep in mind that he’s just 24, meaning that he has years of development time ahead of him. He has a pretty broad base of skills already- the power, line-drive bat and speed. And he did make incremental progress in the BB department, upping his rate to 7.1% (5.2% in ’07). Also, he lowered his O-Swing% and increased his Z-Swing%, both signs of a player learning the strike zone.
Matt, yeah, looks like I totally ignored BB’s when I made that comparison and it was probably not the best of comparisons. I don’t think he quite has the power that Soriano does, but I think as David suggests he will develop and possibly end up walking more.
I am high on Kemp myself.
‘High on Kemp’, that is a catchy title! I’ll expect a name drop if ever used!
The knock has always been that Kemp is a basketball player playing baseball, but I think he put those criticisms to rest this season. He should only get better (then again, I think we said the same of Francouer before this year) as he gets older, and will be in the heart of a (hopefully) very productive lineup for the immediate future. Very bullish on him, and I believe his potential outpaces that of Ethier.
I don’t know if it’s really a “curious case”….many great hitters have high BABIPs year after a year. Manny Ramirez and Albert Pujols off the top of my head, I’m sure there are more….
I know this is an old thread, but if anybody hears me, who do you take in a keeper league? Upton or Kemp?
In 2009: Kemp, in 100% of leagues. With 38 doubles last year, Kemp has arrived. J-Up is a year behind. This could be a very relevant question the year after next (2010).