Seriously, you’re listing early 20 year old players as failures…Players can’t do squat about the ‘hype’ that’s put on them, so failure to live up to such hype is silly..

Any service that projections the development of 18-21 year old KIDS, isn’t going to be perfect. If I recall correctly, BA pegged Delmon Young to perfection by saying, “Young can be whatever he wants to be.”

Annnyways, I thought we were smart people here. What’s the most important thing to look at when evaluating minor league talent? Oh, it’s not the stats? It’s the players AGE & LEVEL? Good God! You mean to tell me that a .800 OPS as a 20 year old is better than an .900 OPS as a 28 year old? GOOD GOD!

Justin Upton is the best of the outfielders to come out in a long freakin’ time! I have him above Braun, Sizemore, pretty much everyone if I was doing a full-out dynasty league today. To say that Fernando Martinez isn’t in his class isn’t saying much at all.

This just leaves me scratching my head and wondering what’s to be accomplished by these comments, because there’s also some WTFs on the other side of the spectrum too. Expecting Martinez to hit 30HR next year given full-time AB is just as goofy as saying he’ll only develop 15 HR power over the course of his career.

Obviously, we’re all just making projections and predictions and no one’s more or less right than anyone else, but I’d figure we’d have people in the middle rather than just on the extremes.

In the end, Martinez is over-valued mainly because of his base-stealing ability which was addressed in the main article. People in New York think he’s Teh Jesus! (along with Austin Jackson,) but the only way I see him fulfilling his unwarranted 25SB potential is if he attempts damn near 40 SB.

There’s a lot of room for TEH FAIL, but it seems to me that the most likely outcome would have Martinez being an across the board, above average, corner infielder from age 25 onward, with the exception of BB% and OBP.

25 HR, 10-15 SB, .275-.285.. Yah, that’ll play.

It is way to early to call a lot of the guys on the BA list busts. A lot of them have not received adequate playing time, others have suffered from a lack of luck (see andrew miller last year), and others need more seasoning.

His problems? Well for one, he seems fragile. He was hurt in ST this year as well, and there were some speculation that he may have needed surgery on his elbow.

Two. He gets to play half his games in PETCO West. Citi Field is huge, and is playing like an extreme pitchers park at this point. According to ESPN, its the 23rd best park to hit in this year.

Three. While he’s been young for his leagues, he hasn’t been dominating. In 2007, he didn’t show much power or hit a high average, even with a healthy BABIP. In 2008, He improved his BA, but the power wasn’t there either. Again, healthy BABIP. This was the first year that he’s shown pretty good power. I’m not sure I’m ready to buy that as legitimate.

Also, prospects in BAs top 20 that have failed recently?

2005: Non Repeated Names. Joel Guzman (5), Casey Kotchman (6), Dallas McPherson (12), Jeff Francouer (14), Jason Kubel (17), Jeff Niemann (20)

2006: Non repeated names. Delmon Young (1), Brandon Wood (3), Jeremy Hermida (4), Lastings Milledge (9), Alex Gordon (13), Andy Marte (14), Andy LaRoche (19)

2007: Non repeated names, Homer Bailey (5), Cameron Maybin (6), Andrew Miller (10), Reid Brigniac (17), Carlos Gonzalez (18)

And there would be plenty of repeat offenders in this case as well. Making it high doesn’t guarantee success.

I see him as a 18-23 HR, .280 BA, .330 OBP type guy. Now if he qualifies at CF, thats pretty good value, but for a corner OF that is borderline value. I don’t think he’s going to be a Justin Upton type player. But thats just my opinion.

This is clearly not an over-hyped prospect. Holding his own at advanced levels at his age is the exact mark of an impact prospect. When guys can do what Martinez did this year at Triple-A or what Justin Upton did last year at the majors (.818 OPS as a 20-year old) – that’s cause for celebration.

Any year where Martinez plays 150 games in the majors and doesn’t hit 30 HR, I’ll be surprised.