Comments on: The Lucky Riot

By: Andrew

Andrew — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 11:24:07 +0000

One thing that needs to be taken into account is how effective Theriot is at hitting to the right side and how his lineup position will influence his overall stats as a result. I can’t count how many times I watched him lace singles through the gap created by the first baseman covering a runner on first, so if he ends up somewhere without a decent OBP guy in front of him I don’t know how well he’ll do.

By: Ryan Glass

Ryan Glass — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 15:35:49 +0000

Simple. I reversed his OBP and SLG. I forgot I was dealing with a light-hitting MI. His IsoD goes from .77 up to .82. Thanks

By: Isaac

Isaac — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 05:37:15 +0000

Why is his isolated patience lower in his adjusted line than his real line? I understand that his average should have been lower, but he didn’t luck his way into walks.

By: Ryan Glass

Ryan Glass — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 20:01:37 +0000

Power (as measured by homers) has no effect on BABIP or xBABIP. Things like the way the BIP are distributed and speed play into BABIP. Not all players that post great offensive years have good BABIPs. Some players never strike-out, so they can survive a lower BABIP, some players hit enough homers to overcome Ks, some do both. The issue here is that Dutton and Bendix’s xBABIP model does a great job of putting BABIP into context. If one is tremendously outperforming his true-talent than the smart move is to bet against him the next year. A player isn’t “doomed” to have a bad year, but it is unlikely that they will experience the same luck next year.

By: steve

steve — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 19:00:09 +0000

I’m assuming that all of this is predicated on Theriot’s lack of power? Don’t all players that have good offensive years post a high BABIP? So should we expect a drop off for all offensive players this year as they all regress to a xBABIP? I know, however, that that is total hyperbole.