The Martin Prado Post
Perhaps to my detriment, I read the comments on my posts. I feel it keeps me on my toes and makes me a better analyst, but you might just call it some sort of sadomasochism (especially with some comments). In any case, a comment on a shortstop rankings post engendered this Jimmy Rollins post, so it can’t all be bad. Now some comments on my latest second base rankings post have me wanting to revisit a second baseman and his place in the rankings so far this season.
Some of the sentiment seems that Martin Prado should be in the first tier of second basemen. At first blush, this doesn’t pass the sniff test for me. For example, Brandon Phillips beats Prado in every traditional fantasy category but RBI (by about ten) and batting average (by about 25 points). Even going forward, you’d expect Phillips to have more power and speed, so this is no fluke thing.
Another second baseman mentioned was Ben Zobrist. The difference between Prado (top of fourth tier) and Zobrist at the bottom of the second tier is actually much closer than it might appear. The tier in between (with Brian Roberts, Chase Utley, and Chone Figgins) was titled “Will They Ever Get it Together” for a reason. Obviously, those guys – at their peak – offer more upside than Prado in fantasy baseball. They are also performing at levels that are far from their peaks this year, but that upside is still remains. Prado will never hit 30 home runs, nor will he steal more than 30. Those are fantasy numbers worth pursuing.
But I digress. Back to Zobrist. It doesn’t look like Zobrist’s power is on its way back, and Prado doubles him in the home run category, but Zobrist still gets on base at almost exactly the same rate if OBP is a fantasy category for you, and he steals many more bags than Prado. Unfortunately for me, the batting average is just not there for Zobrist, as his .251 average is not even projected to improve by much (.291 BABIP currently, .253 ZiPs RoS batting average projection). Thusly, Prado also beats Zobrist in runs by a hefty margin. Prado should probably be above Zobrist in the rankings it seems.
It is strange that a man with a .094 ISO in the minor leagues has put up an ever-improving ISO in the major leagues (.155 overall, .171 this yer), but we have to go with what he’s currently doing, especially since that improved ISO has now come in 1416 plate appearances. Perhaps the added juice on the pitches coming in is aiding the power of a line-drive hitter, or perhaps it’s just been a superlative development process. Prado is, at least, hitting the ball in the air a little more in the major leagues. His last two stops in the minors produced 27.3% and 23.8% flyball rates respectively, compared to 34.1% overall in the major leagues. In either case, his slightly-above-average power plays very well at second base, a tough position.
While Prado probably won’t hit 20 home runs, or steal ten bases, or be in the top three at his position in any category but batting average, he provides value in all five fantasy categories and is, in all likelihood, a top second-tier fantasy option at second base. Given all the qualifiers in that last sentence, perhaps I can be forgiven for not putting him in the top tier among players that do show great power and speed. But he should have been in the second.
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Prado’s muscled up versus how he was early in his career. This past offseason he really got into P90X, and apparently its worked.
Will he be a 25 HR guy? Doubtful, but 15-20 with a high average seems to be the right area for him.
He’s not a big BB guy, and his RBI totals are down due to batting leadoff for the majority of the season. However since moving to the 3 hole his RBI total has gone way up. (17 RBI in his last 14 games, but with Heyward tearing the cover off of the ball of late, you can see why he’s had so many chances)
Top tier 2B? I’m not sure, but he should at least at the table.
I think he likely could have reached 20HRs this year were it not for the fractured pinkie. Given he’s 26, I could see him hitting 20 next year – he does hit buckets and buckets of doubles, which as they say, may translate to a few more HRs in the next few years. In terms of RBI, yes, Joemodee is right – especially in the NL, hitting behind the pitcher, how many RBIs will you get? Curious to see where they bat him next year – curious about the whole lineup, I think.
Maybe Prado 2nd, Heyward 3rd, McCann 4th, Freeman 5th?
Though I kinda love that Bobby Cox kept Heyward, he of the .390ish OBP, ahead of Prado when Chipper went down; Heyward 2nd and Prado 3rd seems the opposite of a conventional lineup, but they are better for it, I think.
Prado is definately in the 2nd tier of fantasy second baseman and I think thats where he belongs… He is one of those players whose “real baseball” value greatly exceeds his fantasy value.
agreed. I also think there’s a good chance he’s over-rated in next year’s draft.
The problem with your entire “system” of ranking is that you rotate between relying entirely on past performance with some players (Figgins) and then for others, you rely entirely on what you think about the player’s ceiling (Prado) and then for others you rely on ZipsRoS (Kelly Johnson).
Because as far as I can tell, you don’t really have much of a system. Figgins is droppable and Phillips has potential, but so does Rickie Weeks. And who is reaching their potential better this year? Well, Weeks is of course.
Kelly Johnson is a great example of you “buying” a player’s season v. you not buying another’s, Weeks or Prado.
And this is just not even close to a fair statement: “For example, Brandon Phillips beats Prado in every traditional fantasy category but RBI (by about ten) and batting average (by about 25 points).” So … Phillips is better in 3 categories and Prado is better in the other two.
Your ranking reflect your personal bias and you cherry-pick stats to support yourself. If you want to use wOBA, fine, or ZipsROS, great. But you have to actually stick to one. If not, just say “this is what I think and it really doesn’t have much to do with a statistical analysis.”
The stated purpose of the rankings are to suss out performance for the rest of the season, so of course I have to take past performance into account, but the focus is on going forward. So with a player like Figgins, sure he’s had a bad year, but he’s still walking and stealing bases, so all it would take is a batting average bump and he’d be the same guy he’s always been.
Obviously, I could just use ZiPs RoS numbers to get at this point, but I am intentionally trying to use qualitative analysis on top of quantitative analysis. I think you’re creating a straw man here. I don’t have to choose between the statistical and subjective analysis because these are obviously subjective rankings and I obviously take statistics into account. I can say, well, yes, ZiPs thinks this, but at this point in the season we can maybe say that these projections are not going to hit the mark in this direction or this direction.
So yes, these are subjective rankings. I thought that would have been obvious. Year-to-end rankings, as a beast, are this way. Even the best projections aren’t good enough to just follow whole-heartedly, and I’m trying to use my subjective analysis to suss out those spots where a human being might be able to intuit something interesting.
As for the Phillips comment, sure, it’s a little self-serving hyperbole. But if Phillips is only a few RBI short, the less exciting but most correct way to say this would have been “Phillips beats Prado in three of five cats, and is very close in a fourth – the only category that Prado ‘owns’ is batting average.” It’s still an easy choice between the two, and the overall point still stands.
Also, I don’t remember saying Figgins was droppable. In fact, in this version of the rankings, Figgins was ahead of Prado, because if he had a nice batting average going forward and stole a ton of bases, their values would be comparable.
My question was how do you determine where people stand? It doesn’t seem like you have a method. Do what you want when it comes to rankings, but explain your system and stick to it. Your rankings lack credibility because I cannot point to anything that you value on more than a purely situational basis.
If you are basically going to chain the rankings to past performance, explain the Kelly Johnson ranking. He likes hitting in Arizona, he has X amount of home games left, he loves rattlesnakes, etc. Because his past performance indicates that “career year” might not be sustainable. And obviously Martin Prado would fall into this category. But that’s why we are both here, isn’t it?
If you want to use raw potential and the ability to realize it, why the difference between Kinsler and Weeks and Phillips? They all have the potential to be five-category performers (some would say Weeks has the highest ceiling) and Weeks is having the best season of them all, like Kelly, a career year that would easily place him in the top tier. Kinsler, on the other hand, is having a terrible season and has just as long of an injury history as Weeks.
If you want to rely heavily on Zips Ros, explain Zobrist (.347) and, for that matter, Phillips (.339).
This is just a list of what you predict and it is subjective. I understand that. If I wanted to read that, I could just hop over to ESPN and read Matthew Berry’s dribble.
To clarify, I believe Figgins is droppable.
I still think you are making a false dichotomy. I take into consideration a player’s past performance, their present performance, their present situation wrt to parks and lineups, their ZiPs Ros, their nebulous upside, and I put in my head-blender and spit out a tier – more than a ranking, these are tiers.
It’s naturally a subjective and qualitative analysis on top of quantitative analysis, so if you think that renders it without credibility, that’s just, like, your opinion man. As these rankings are my opinion. As any rankings that include subjective decisions are.
I don’t even think it’s possible to relate all of these factors in a systematic way. Would I weight ZiPs RoS 50%, past performance 20%, upside 20%, and then fudge the last 10%? How would I define upside? Where would I allow for my subjective opinion – in that 10%?
Then you have to bring in the scarcity of the five categories. Since stolen bases are more scarce, I’ll continue running Chone Figgins out there because he’s shown to have excellent upside in that arena. Ryan Theriot doesn’t belong on any rankings if he didn’t steal 25+ bases most years.
I think rankings are by their nature subjective. At some point, even if I had some sort of numbers-based system that weighted all factors and spit out a personal projection number, I would be picking between two guys with similar numbers. If you want a completely mathematical approach, I suggest just using ZiPs RoS.
I don’t know much about fantasy baseball, so perhaps this is irrelevant. But Prado is actually playing third base now, and probably will for the rest of the season.
No, I am not saying you need to turn yourself into a human ZIPS projector. But maybe if you didn’t just put it all into a head blender, your rankings would be better and someone like Martin Prado wouldn’t be so out of place. Like, for example, use Zips for 1/3, current performance for 1/3 and your subjective ideas for the other 1/3. That’s not really too tough to do. And I am pretty sure that would help you not have Brandon Philips where he is, Ben Zobrist where he is, and Martin Prado where he is.
I’m not arguing about your rankings being subjective. I am asking what do you subjectively value, because it is different for every player. And if I cannot tell what you value, why should I pay attention to your ranking any more than someone elses?
Doesn’t your 1/3 example contradict what you’re saying? That’s no system – that’s developing an arbitrary weighting which has no more reason to it than however Eno weighs the information now.
Wouldn’t an economist consider housing, unemployment, etc. data differently and let its impact on his/her projection vary from one period to another? That doesn’t mean you refuse to accept or believe their opinion – you put it into context, along with your own beliefs, which can include similarities/differences in opinion with the author, and other numbers and interpret them for yourself.
As for the last point, if you value the inputs he’s using, and agree with his reasoning, then pay attention. Otherwise, disregard and feel free to make your own static system of player projection and ranking.
It all depends on your scoring, and your lineup.
If you just go off of basic scoring…
Prado will give you a solid AVG, decent power for a 2B, low K, solid R (and RBI depending on his position in the lineup)
With Phillips, you’re trading some AVG for SB. Otherwise based upon this year (and the time Prado started last year) its a wash.
Going into the year, your top tier was probably:
Utley
Pedroia
Kinsler
Right off the mark…
Cano
Zobrist
Figgins
Uggla
With Phillips, Prado, et al behind them.
This year makes it a bit difficult with how Utley has performed, as most all of us would agree he was(is?) the top 2B fantasy-wise. Pedroia has been solid, but not spectacular, and Kinsler’s power has been down. Figgins gives you SB but not much else. 2009 Zobrist appears to be a fluke. Cano has been lights out. Uggla is who we thought he is? (Hat tip to Denny Green)
Do we base 2011′s rankings off of 09 or 10? Combination of both? There’s been no 2B that really has been surprisingly good to make you think they’ll fall of next year.
Next year if I end up with Utley, Kinsler, Pedroia, Prado or Phillips as my starting 2B, I think I’ll call it a successful draft.
Just to add to the discussion, xISO per batted ball type:
* Popups: 0.004
* Groundballs: 0.023
* Flyballs: 0.624
* Line Drives: 0.289
Yup, that’s why I pointed out his added flyballs for sure. Could account for all of it.
Absolutely agree, just wanted to put some additional numbers behind your statements. Great work as always Eno.
i can’t disagree with much of the statistical analysis in the post, but i do think prado’s fantasy value is greatly increased by his flexibility. in yahoo he’s first-, second-, and third-base eligible, and i’ve used him in all three spots (and as a utility player) this season. his speed is average, so he’ll probably never steal more than 10 bases in a season, but he’s a guy that could hit 25-30 homers if he sacrificed some batting average. as is, though, he’ll stay in the first three spots in the braves’ lineup and fill up your runs, hits, singles, doubles, and batting average categories while limiting defensive mistakes. i’d rank cano, utley, phillips, and maybe kinsler ahead of him, but that’s about it.
….and pedroia, of course.