The Price is (Finally) Right for Rays
The top pitching prospect in all of baseball is back where he belongs.
The Tampa Bay Rays organization has promoted LHP David Price from triple-A and he will start against Cleveland tonight (May 25). He’s taking the roster spot of veteran LHP Scott Kazmir, who was placed on the disabled list with a quadriceps strain. Many baseball experts expected Price to begin the season in Tampa Bay, but the organization claimed it was in Price’s best interest to get some more experience in the minors. Some cynics have suggested that the organization was merely trying to save money by delaying Price’s arbitration eligibility and free agency. Our very own Dave Cameron chimed in on this very topic back at the beginning of April.
With the formerly-first-place Toronto Blue Jays faltering, Tampa Bay is only four games out of first place, despite playing .500 ball to this point and being in fourth place in the American League East. One could look at the AL East race and say that Price’s presence on the Major League roster could have made a significant difference in the standings. The Rays are 10th in ERA, and third in most walks allowed, but the pitching as a whole has been mostly middle-of-the-road statistically speaking. In the starting rotation, though, Andy Sonnanstine and Scott Kazmir have struggled mightily this season. Sonnanstine has allowed 63 hits in 46.1 innings, he has a 6.60 ERA and the club has won only four of his nine starts. Kazmir has allowed 60 hits in 45.2 innings with a 7.69 ERA. The club has won five of his nine starts. He’s lost a couple miles per hour off his fastball, and he’s not having any luck mixing in the slider more often.
Price, though, has not looked overly sharp himself this season – especially compared to his 2008 season, which ended with him pitching in the Major League playoffs. The left-hander had a 3.93 ERA (4.71 FIP) in triple-A and he allowed 28 hits in 34.1 innings of work. His walk rate was high at 4.72 BB/9, but his strikeout rate was impressive at 9.17 K/9. Along with the control issues, his home run rate (1.31 HR/9) is also troubling. It could, though, be a case of under-performing after the letdown of being demoted to triple-A to begin the year. In his last minor league start, with whispers of an impending promotion, Price worked five no-hit innings with two walks and nine strikeouts against the Rochester Redwings squad (Minnesota’s affiliate).
If that is the case, and 2008 Price emerges in the Majors this year, then the Rays have a bright, shining beacon of hope for the 2009 season. He also has the potential to greatly aid fantasy baseball owners desperately in need of some strong pitching performances.
It’s only May – so it’s still anybody’s ball game.
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This is a tough request… but if Price is awesome tonight, do you look to sell high as a #2 starter on his credentials and ML performance, and conversely if he falters, do you try to buy low on his weak AAA performance this year and a bad start. What kind of numbers do you see for him for the rest of the year?
“The top pitching prospect in all of baseball is back where he belongs.”
I’d have to disagree with you there.
Madison is pretty darn good, but Price still edges him because of the success he’s had at a higher level.
As for Price’s fantasy value, the control is worrisome right now. If the control issues continue for the rest of the season, you can expect a 4.30-ish ERA with a fair number of hits, a high number of walks but still a ton of Ks.
if Niemann continues pitching as he has lately, will he keep his rotation spot when Kazmir returns? Assume Price stays…would Niemann be the odd man out, or would they drop Sonastine into the pen instead?
Price should be a terrific source of strikeouts, but after his home start Sat. vs the Twins he projects to have some tough matchups ahead: June 5 @ the Yankees, June 10 vs the Angels, June 16 @ Coors Field, June 21 @ the Mets, June 27 vs FLA, and @ TEX. Except FLA and the Angels (who now have Vlad back) all those teams (and Minnesota too) are in the top 11 teams in runs per AB vs lefthanders. The Mets are #1 with 1 run per 5.48 AB’s, a .409 OBP and .539 slugging pct vs lefties and the Yankees are #2 right now with 1 per 5.6 AB’s, .381 OBP and .529 SLG (but those numbers were essentially compiled without A-Rod). Of course, these are only projected starts but in a roto league Price could be considered a sell candidate if his stock rises in the event of a strong outing against the Twins. OTOH he should be a great source of strikeouts and may pick up some wins so he could have value if you can stand a hit to ERA and WHIP.
If Price has another bad outing like the other day, he’ll be sent back down to AAA. 2 ers is deceiving since the bullpen bailed him out. Had he stayed in you know he’d of given up at least 2 more earned runs without getting another out. 8+ FIP? Not something the Rays will tolerate regardless if he’s a top prospect or not.