The Prodigal Son Returns to Seattle
After nearly a decade apart, the Seattle Mariners and Ken Griffey Jr. will once again be united in 2009. Griffey, of course, spent the 1989-1999 seasons with the M’s, racking up a collection of numbers that portended to his ranking among the all-time greats in many categories, with a possible run at the home run record chiefly among them. While “The Kid” was often sidetracked by injuries, Griffey has still compiled 611 big flys and owns a career triple-slash line of .288/.373/.547.
Nostalgia aside, the 39 year-old that returns to Seattle retains just slight glimpses of the guy who was one of the marquee players of the 1990’s. In fact, Griffey has posted a total of -0.2 Value Wins over the past three seasons combined, with a declining bat and defensive work that rates among the worst in the game (Griffey posted a total of -67.8 fielding runs from ‘06 to ‘08).
Griffey will likely put the glove down with the M’s, taking over at DH for a club that received embarrassing production from the position last season (Seattle DH’s combined to “hit” .221/.273/.334). Will Griffey be an asset for the Mariners?
Number 24’s power production has been in pretty steady decline since 2005, as his isolated power (ISO) has dipped from .275 in ‘05 to .234 in ‘06, .220 in ‘07 and .176 in ‘08. He still manages to draw a fair amount of walks (around 14% the past two campaigns), but Griffey has essentially been a league-average hitter in two of the past three seasons, with a .336 wOBA in 2006, .369 in 2007 and a .335 mark in 2008. That production came at Great American Ballpark, which smiles upon power hitters (GABP’s three-year HR park factor is 128). Transitioning to Safeco will very likely do harm to Griffey’s waning pop, as the M’s home park has a 94 HR park factor from 2006 to 2008.
Also of concern is Griffey’s struggles with same-side pitching. Over the past three seasons, Griffey has managed a useful .272/.379/.461 line against right-handers, but southpaws have neutralized him to the tune of .202/.299/.350.
Griffey’s signing also potentially means less playing time for a few talented-but-unproven youngsters. Catcher Jeff Clement and outfielder Wladimir Balentien both figured to receive some at-bats in the DH spot, but Griffey’s arrival might torpedo that plan. The Mariners might have an outside shot of contention in a division without a standout club (PECOTA projects the Angels to win the AL West with just 84 victories), but the team would seemingly be best served by allowing Clement (a career .286/.377/.494 minor league hitter) to get some AB’s when he’s not spelling Kenji Johjima behind the plate and allowing Balentien (.277/.344/.526 in the minors) to hone his control of the strike zone if Endy Chavez is in left field.
If this is indeed a “baseball decision” (as GM Jack Zduriencik characterized it in the MLB.com article linked to above) and not just a means of attracting fans, then it’s still not especially clear that signing Griffey improves the club in 2009:
CHONE Projections, 2009:
Griffey: .332 wOBA
Clement: .338 wOBA
Balentien: .313 wOBA
The system is not especially optimistic about Balentien, but it suggests that Clement (the guy who figures to lose the most playing time here) would provide more value with the bat.
Ken Griffey returning to Seattle might be an interesting story, but the M’s prodigal son returns as a platoon DH with declining thump at the plate, and he’s moving into a power-suppressing environment to boot. Griffey is one of the better players that we have seen in recent memory, but his days as a force are well behind him.
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I think Clement will get enough playing time between 1B and C. Russell Branyan’s projection is pretty close to his (.337 according to CHONE) so I could envision, say, 500 AB for Branyan between 1B/3B/OF, and maybe 250 AB for Clement between 1B/C/DH. Against southpaws, I could see the M’s moving Lopez over to 1B and starting Cedeno at 2B or SS.
I think Balentien will end up getting some innings in LF. I know it takes away some of his value, but he still has upside and needs at bats. At the same time, it’s unlikely that he’ll hit well enough to be the full time DH or LF for that matter, so you do need someone (preferably a left hander) as an insurance policy. Dunn was apparently quite expensive, while Abreu still has better options (read: Atlanta). I’m not sure the M’s wanted to trade any of their prospects for a Swisher or a Luke Scott, and we all know about Nick Johnson’s problems.
This isn’t a bad move in a “Burrell / Ibanez” sense (where you replace a cheaper, better player with a worse, more expensive one, throwing away some picks in the process). That would be a “high-risk, low-reward move”. Maybe you call signing Griffey a “low-risk, low-reward” move.
Safeco doesn’t hurt lefthanded hitters. It really only negates righthanded power. Is the 94 factor for all hitters? Because I don’t think Safeco does anything but moderately boost lefthanded hitting stats.
Bodhizefa,
The Bill James Handbook shows a 94 park factor for lefty HR in Safeco over the past 3 seasons. The park seems to suppress power for players of either hand.
David, Clement hasn’t played an inning of 1B in his professional career, maybe not since high school, and there are lots of potential 1B on the roster already. Given that the plan is apparently to make him the four- to five-day a week catcher if his knee can take it, It’s unlikely they’ll take time during Spring Training to let him learn a new position. The way he’ll get more ABs on days he doesn’t catch, I fear, is by running Griffey out into LF. (And Wakamatsu has said “You won’t see Jose at first base, at least initially,” — whatever that means)
As for the park factor: If you’re talking strictly about Home Runs (and not other outcomes — parks can do weird things like suppress Ks and grounders, though nobody really knows why) and you think you’re dealing with a predictable pull hitter (rather than a sprayer) you can use the THT calculations which segment the outfield and use hit tracker data. Taking the average of RF and RCF, Safeco comes in at 122.9 (fairly hitter friendly) while Great American figures to be 132.3 (about 10% more hitter friendly). That probably works out to one less HR over the course of the season for Griffey, but that is going to be lost in noise.
Joser, what are these 1B alternatives to which you refer? And please, for the love of god, don’t say Mike Morse. Branyan wouldn’t be a better fielder than Clement even without the experience. Clement is not the catcher of the future. His defense is too poor. They like prospect Rob Johnson there much better. If they believed Clement was at all serviceable as a starting catcher, he would be the starting catcher right now. But Clement is a great hitting prospect. If you want to maximize his value to the team in the long run, get him acclimated to 1B now.
The barriers to Clement already being the catcher of the future are/were his injury and the insane Johjima contract, not his defense. He’s far more valuable as a C than a 1B, and it’s not like weak defensive catchers never stick around because of their bat, so if he can get his offense going and not embarrass himself behind the plate, a C he remains. It’s possible they’ll give him time at 1B to keep his bat in the lineup, but I don’t think that’s the plan. At the LL/USSM meeting this was asked and consensus among the assembled brass (Pedro Griffol, Tony Blengino, Carmen Fusco) was: He’ll be a catcher until we’re sure he can’t be. Now, something could change in spring training, but my take-away from that meeting was that he would catch at least half the games, and probably more, in ‘09.