Comments on: The Prodigal Son Returns to Seattle http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/the-prodigal-son-returns-to-seattle/ Daily fantasy baseball analysis and strategy Mon, 13 Feb 2012 01:15:17 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: joser http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/the-prodigal-son-returns-to-seattle/#comment-1410 joser Fri, 20 Feb 2009 20:26:28 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=1864#comment-1410 The barriers to Clement already being the catcher of the future are/were his injury and the insane Johjima contract, not his defense. He's far more valuable as a C than a 1B, and it's not like weak defensive catchers never stick around because of their bat, so if he can get his offense going and not embarrass himself behind the plate, a C he remains. It's possible they'll give him time at 1B to keep his bat in the lineup, but I don't think that's the plan. At the LL/USSM meeting this was asked and consensus among the assembled brass (Pedro Griffol, Tony Blengino, Carmen Fusco) was: He'll be a catcher until we're sure he can't be. Now, something could change in spring training, but my take-away from that meeting was that he would catch at least half the games, and probably more, in '09. The barriers to Clement already being the catcher of the future are/were his injury and the insane Johjima contract, not his defense. He’s far more valuable as a C than a 1B, and it’s not like weak defensive catchers never stick around because of their bat, so if he can get his offense going and not embarrass himself behind the plate, a C he remains. It’s possible they’ll give him time at 1B to keep his bat in the lineup, but I don’t think that’s the plan. At the LL/USSM meeting this was asked and consensus among the assembled brass (Pedro Griffol, Tony Blengino, Carmen Fusco) was: He’ll be a catcher until we’re sure he can’t be. Now, something could change in spring training, but my take-away from that meeting was that he would catch at least half the games, and probably more, in ’09.

]]> By: elgringo79 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/the-prodigal-son-returns-to-seattle/#comment-1408 elgringo79 Fri, 20 Feb 2009 19:06:49 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=1864#comment-1408 Joser, what are these 1B alternatives to which you refer? And please, for the love of god, don't say Mike Morse. Branyan wouldn't be a better fielder than Clement even without the experience. Clement is not the catcher of the future. His defense is too poor. They like prospect Rob Johnson there much better. If they believed Clement was at all serviceable as a starting catcher, he would be the starting catcher right now. But Clement is a great hitting prospect. If you want to maximize his value to the team in the long run, get him acclimated to 1B now. Joser, what are these 1B alternatives to which you refer? And please, for the love of god, don’t say Mike Morse. Branyan wouldn’t be a better fielder than Clement even without the experience. Clement is not the catcher of the future. His defense is too poor. They like prospect Rob Johnson there much better. If they believed Clement was at all serviceable as a starting catcher, he would be the starting catcher right now. But Clement is a great hitting prospect. If you want to maximize his value to the team in the long run, get him acclimated to 1B now.

]]> By: joser http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/the-prodigal-son-returns-to-seattle/#comment-1396 joser Fri, 20 Feb 2009 03:09:45 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=1864#comment-1396 David, Clement hasn't played an inning of 1B in his professional career, maybe not since high school, and there are lots of potential 1B on the roster already. Given that the plan is apparently to make him the four- to five-day a week catcher if his knee can take it, It's unlikely they'll take time during Spring Training to let him learn a new position. The way he'll get more ABs on days he doesn't catch, I fear, is by running Griffey out into LF. (And Wakamatsu <a href="http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/400581_mbok19.html" rel="nofollow">has said</a> "You won't see Jose at first base, at least initially," -- whatever that means) As for the park factor: If you're talking strictly about Home Runs (and not other outcomes -- parks can do weird things like <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/batted-balls-and-park-effects/" rel="nofollow">suppress Ks and grounders</a>, though nobody really knows why) and you think you're dealing with a predictable pull hitter (rather than a sprayer) you can use the <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/home-run-park-factor-a-new-approach/" rel="nofollow">THT calculations</a> which segment the outfield and use hit tracker data. Taking the average of RF and RCF, Safeco comes in at 122.9 (fairly hitter friendly) while Great American figures to be 132.3 (about 10% more hitter friendly). That probably works out to one less HR over the course of the season for Griffey, but that is going to be lost in noise. David, Clement hasn’t played an inning of 1B in his professional career, maybe not since high school, and there are lots of potential 1B on the roster already. Given that the plan is apparently to make him the four- to five-day a week catcher if his knee can take it, It’s unlikely they’ll take time during Spring Training to let him learn a new position. The way he’ll get more ABs on days he doesn’t catch, I fear, is by running Griffey out into LF. (And Wakamatsu has said “You won’t see Jose at first base, at least initially,” — whatever that means)

As for the park factor: If you’re talking strictly about Home Runs (and not other outcomes — parks can do weird things like suppress Ks and grounders, though nobody really knows why) and you think you’re dealing with a predictable pull hitter (rather than a sprayer) you can use the THT calculations which segment the outfield and use hit tracker data. Taking the average of RF and RCF, Safeco comes in at 122.9 (fairly hitter friendly) while Great American figures to be 132.3 (about 10% more hitter friendly). That probably works out to one less HR over the course of the season for Griffey, but that is going to be lost in noise.

]]> By: David Golebiewski http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/the-prodigal-son-returns-to-seattle/#comment-1389 David Golebiewski Thu, 19 Feb 2009 20:40:01 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=1864#comment-1389 Bodhizefa, The Bill James Handbook shows a 94 park factor for lefty HR in Safeco over the past 3 seasons. The park seems to suppress power for players of either hand. Bodhizefa,

The Bill James Handbook shows a 94 park factor for lefty HR in Safeco over the past 3 seasons. The park seems to suppress power for players of either hand.

]]> By: Bodhizefa http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/the-prodigal-son-returns-to-seattle/#comment-1386 Bodhizefa Thu, 19 Feb 2009 16:10:45 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=1864#comment-1386 Safeco doesn't hurt lefthanded hitters. It really only negates righthanded power. Is the 94 factor for all hitters? Because I don't think Safeco does anything but moderately boost lefthanded hitting stats. Safeco doesn’t hurt lefthanded hitters. It really only negates righthanded power. Is the 94 factor for all hitters? Because I don’t think Safeco does anything but moderately boost lefthanded hitting stats.

]]> By: David http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/the-prodigal-son-returns-to-seattle/#comment-1385 David Thu, 19 Feb 2009 15:25:04 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=1864#comment-1385 I think Clement will get enough playing time between 1B and C. Russell Branyan's projection is pretty close to his (.337 according to CHONE) so I could envision, say, 500 AB for Branyan between 1B/3B/OF, and maybe 250 AB for Clement between 1B/C/DH. Against southpaws, I could see the M's moving Lopez over to 1B and starting Cedeno at 2B or SS. I think Balentien will end up getting some innings in LF. I know it takes away some of his value, but he still has upside and needs at bats. At the same time, it's unlikely that he'll hit well enough to be the full time DH or LF for that matter, so you do need someone (preferably a left hander) as an insurance policy. Dunn was apparently quite expensive, while Abreu still has better options (read: Atlanta). I'm not sure the M's wanted to trade any of their prospects for a Swisher or a Luke Scott, and we all know about Nick Johnson's problems. This isn't a bad move in a "Burrell / Ibanez" sense (where you replace a cheaper, better player with a worse, more expensive one, throwing away some picks in the process). That would be a "high-risk, low-reward move". Maybe you call signing Griffey a "low-risk, low-reward" move. I think Clement will get enough playing time between 1B and C. Russell Branyan’s projection is pretty close to his (.337 according to CHONE) so I could envision, say, 500 AB for Branyan between 1B/3B/OF, and maybe 250 AB for Clement between 1B/C/DH. Against southpaws, I could see the M’s moving Lopez over to 1B and starting Cedeno at 2B or SS.

I think Balentien will end up getting some innings in LF. I know it takes away some of his value, but he still has upside and needs at bats. At the same time, it’s unlikely that he’ll hit well enough to be the full time DH or LF for that matter, so you do need someone (preferably a left hander) as an insurance policy. Dunn was apparently quite expensive, while Abreu still has better options (read: Atlanta). I’m not sure the M’s wanted to trade any of their prospects for a Swisher or a Luke Scott, and we all know about Nick Johnson’s problems.

This isn’t a bad move in a “Burrell / Ibanez” sense (where you replace a cheaper, better player with a worse, more expensive one, throwing away some picks in the process). That would be a “high-risk, low-reward move”. Maybe you call signing Griffey a “low-risk, low-reward” move.

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