Traded: Javy Vazquez to the Yankees
The Yankees have reacquired starting pitcher Javier Vazquez from the Atlanta Braves, bringing back the starter who last pitched for New York in 2004.
Most pitchers moving from the NL to the AL are mysteries and hard to predict, but we do have four years of pitching in the AL to examine. Aside from pitching for the Yanks in 2004, Javy pitched for the White Sox from 2006-2008.
2004: 14-10, 4.91 ERA, 6.82 K/9, 2.50 K/BB, .284 BABIP, 4.78 FIP, 4.44 xFIP
2006: 11-12, 4.84 ERA, 8.17 K/9, 3.29 K/BB, .321 BABIP, 3.86 FIP, 4.05 xFIP
2007: 15-08, 3.74 ERA, 8.85 K/9, 4.26 K/BB, .297 BABIP, 3.80 FIP, 3.72 xFIP
2008: 12-16, 4.67 ERA, 8.64 K/9, 3.28 K/BB, .328 BABIP, 3.74 FIP, 3.85 xFIP
Yankee fans will remember Vazquez’s down year with the Yankees when he first came into the American League, but he did pitch very well for the White Sox for three seasons. His FIP and his ERA have never quite agreed with each other, with all signs pointing to Javy being a better pitcher than what we saw in the AL during ‘06-’08. Some fans will be going off his Yankee numbers instead of his overall AL numbers, and don’t let it be you. That year in New York was blip in the radar of Vazquez’s overall success.
Javy isn’t a ground ball specialist, but a career GB% near 40% is not the worst thing in the world for a strikeout pitcher. But, playing in New Yankee Stadium changes things. He will have to make sure to keep the ball down more if he doesn’t want balls flying out of the yard.
The defense behind Vazquez is solid, so that shouldn’t be a worry for fantasy owners. His outfield defense will be good enough to chase down the flies that stay in the yard, so put this issue completely out of mind.
It’s hard to advocate drafting a #3 starter as high as Vazquez will be going in drafts, but this is a unique situation. Vazquez’s strikeouts will drop down a touch in 2010, but 17 wins, 200 K’s, and a 3.50 ERA are all reasonable to expect next season.
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A flyball pitcher (career rate of 40% and was around 42% when he was in the AL) going to one of the AL’s best home run parks is going to have an ERA of 3.50? Isn’t that a bit overly optimistic considering his previous stint there? Shouldn’t last year be considered the anomoly?
Last year isn’t too much of an outlier. Only thing fluky was a raised LOB% (76%) and playing in the NL.
Adjusting for the AL and more homers, 3.50 is admittedly on the optimistic side, but it is not out of the question at all. If you want my pessimistic POV, I’d give him an ERA of 4.00.
He has a career 4.19 ERA and 3.83 FIP, with a lot of that spent in the NL. Vazquez is one of those pitchers who has consistently had a higher ERA than FIP and that should be accounted for. Expecting a 3.50 ERA is very optimistic, imo. An ERA of 4 or higher is more realistic and much more in line with his career norms.
I’d bet on over 4.00 just based on the right field porch.
I love Javy. I really do. Despite his joining the yankees, I have nothing but positive emotions for Javy Vazquez. He’ll be a great fantasy option next year. 200k, sure. 17 wins, fine. Hardly any injury risk, great.
But an ERA of 3.50 is reasonable? and 4.00 is pessimistic?
His career ERA is 4.19 (2490 ip). In the AL it’s been 4.5 (~825) and in the NL it’s been 4 (~1664).
Where do you see 3.50 as reasonable?
What am I missing?
A lot of career best numbers in 2009 and Vazquez will turn 34 in June. 14 of Vazquez’s 20 home runs allowed last season were to lefties, something Yankee Stadium won’t help. Neither will moving to the AL. Those are my main concerns, but you can’t argue with his top-notch K/BB rates.
His ADP at Mock Draft Central has him in round 4, which his too high for my liking given the variables in play.
Here’s the thing about his ERA being so much higher than his DIPS:
‘04 Yankees — -11.7(!) team UZR
‘06 Sox — -6.9
‘07 Sox — -7.8
‘08 Sox — -3.3
That’s some absolutely brutal defense. This is why we love DIPS.
From 06-08, Buerhle out performed his FIP each season (like he usually does). So, it is not that simple. Javy, for several different organizations, has had a ERA higher than his FIP and a .36 career difference between the two is pretty significant. Over a large sample size, ERA is more predictive. We’ve reached that sample size with him.
“Over a large sample size, ERA is more predictive.”
I’ve never heard that before. Can you cite a source?
MGL has said on Tango’s blog that ERA is better to use over a large sample size b/c the things that FIP does not account for, like the sequencing of events, pitching better with men on base, holding runners, etc. becomes clearer over time.
I cannot provide an exact link, but he has mentioned it on there several times.
Hmm, fair enough. I would guess that in Vazquez’s particular case awful defense still explains much/most of the discrepancy, though. I suppose you could try to calculate how much by subtracting [(Vazquez's IP/150)*teamUZR] from his runs allowed total and then re-calculating his ERA.
Well, its only an opinion.
“All FIP (or DIPS ERA) does is eliminate the noise (and a little bit of the skill) in BABIP. That allows us to get a better estimate of a pitcher’s run prevention skill, in the short run. In the long run, ERA, RA or ERC is MUCH better because it captures the differences in BABIP skill among pitchers, as well as the other things I mentioned above that contribute to a pitcher’s run prevention skill but are not addressed at all in FIP (like WP rate)—Mgl 13:39, 2 June 2008 (PDT)).”
http://www.tangotiger.net/wiki/index.php?title=Mailbags#Component_v_ERA_-_why_the_gap.3F
And, the fact that he has played on those bad defenses does need to be considered. It is not as cut and dry as I made it sound in my first post.
Interesting. It seems like team UZR/150 should explain most of the difference between FIP and ERA. I’m not strong enough on the theory involved to assert that very confidently, though. Maybe someone with some serious stat chops will chime in and explain to me how those interact.
The sad part is that the 05 Yankee defense was almost surely worse than teh 04 one. it’s outfield was especially bad in epic porportions
NL to AL is important but has anyone done any work on AL-east vs. the world? You hear it discussed as the most difficult division to play/succeed in but is it in the numbers? Does this potentially suggest worse numbers for Vazquez?
Does the Penny/Smoltz experiment add any credence when they arguably had better numbers back in the NL – in the same year!
I’d be curious to see a historical analysis…
I think the AL East vs. the World becomes especially relevant for pitchers who are traded to, or from, Baltimore and Toronto and maybe Tampa more so than Boston and New York. Javy and John Lackey are going to the AL East, but they won’t have to face the Yankees and Sox, respectively. Roy Halladay, on the other hand, is leaving the AL East where he did start ~ 10 times per year against NY and Boston and should get an extreme benefit from going to the NL.
Penny definitely lends no credence to the argument while Smoltz might add some. Penny’s FIP in Boston was actually lower than it was in SF. When you factor in the expected drop in ERA and FIP that comes with switching leagues and facing P’s instead of DH’s, FIP says that Penny actually pitched better in the AL East than in the NL West. With Smoltz, it was probably a combination of things including bad luck (8.33 ERA, 4.94 FIP in Boston), small sample size (40 IP in Boston and 38 IP in StL), pitching for Boston immediately following the injury / pitching for StL after regaining arm strength and the expected improvement that comes from the league switch.