Comments on: Traded: Javy Vazquez to the Yankees

By: goog

goog — Sat, 01 May 2010 23:05:09 +0000

lol

By: hk

hk — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 11:14:32 +0000

I think the AL East vs. the World becomes especially relevant for pitchers who are traded to, or from, Baltimore and Toronto and maybe Tampa more so than Boston and New York. Javy and John Lackey are going to the AL East, but they won’t have to face the Yankees and Sox, respectively. Roy Halladay, on the other hand, is leaving the AL East where he did start ~ 10 times per year against NY and Boston and should get an extreme benefit from going to the NL.

Penny definitely lends no credence to the argument while Smoltz might add some. Penny’s FIP in Boston was actually lower than it was in SF. When you factor in the expected drop in ERA and FIP that comes with switching leagues and facing P’s instead of DH’s, FIP says that Penny actually pitched better in the AL East than in the NL West. With Smoltz, it was probably a combination of things including bad luck (8.33 ERA, 4.94 FIP in Boston), small sample size (40 IP in Boston and 38 IP in StL), pitching for Boston immediately following the injury / pitching for StL after regaining arm strength and the expected improvement that comes from the league switch.

By: RollingWave

RollingWave — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 04:34:22 +0000

The sad part is that the 05 Yankee defense was almost surely worse than teh 04 one. it’s outfield was especially bad in epic porportions

By: cowdisciple

cowdisciple — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 03:11:06 +0000

Interesting. It seems like team UZR/150 should explain most of the difference between FIP and ERA. I’m not strong enough on the theory involved to assert that very confidently, though. Maybe someone with some serious stat chops will chime in and explain to me how those interact.

By: Scottwood

Scottwood — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 02:57:48 +0000

Well, its only an opinion.

“All FIP (or DIPS ERA) does is eliminate the noise (and a little bit of the skill) in BABIP. That allows us to get a better estimate of a pitcher’s run prevention skill, in the short run. In the long run, ERA, RA or ERC is MUCH better because it captures the differences in BABIP skill among pitchers, as well as the other things I mentioned above that contribute to a pitcher’s run prevention skill but are not addressed at all in FIP (like WP rate)—Mgl 13:39, 2 June 2008 (PDT)).”

http://www.tangotiger.net/wiki/index.php?title=Mailbags#Component_v_ERA_-_why_the_gap.3F

And, the fact that he has played on those bad defenses does need to be considered. It is not as cut and dry as I made it sound in my first post.

By: cowdisciple

cowdisciple — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 02:52:38 +0000

Hmm, fair enough. I would guess that in Vazquez’s particular case awful defense still explains much/most of the discrepancy, though. I suppose you could try to calculate how much by subtracting [(Vazquez's IP/150)*teamUZR] from his runs allowed total and then re-calculating his ERA.

By: Scottwood

Scottwood — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 01:30:32 +0000

MGL has said on Tango’s blog that ERA is better to use over a large sample size b/c the things that FIP does not account for, like the sequencing of events, pitching better with men on base, holding runners, etc. becomes clearer over time.

I cannot provide an exact link, but he has mentioned it on there several times.

By: cowdisciple

cowdisciple — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 01:17:05 +0000

“Over a large sample size, ERA is more predictive.”

I’ve never heard that before. Can you cite a source?

By: Scottwood

Scottwood — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 00:54:36 +0000

From 06-08, Buerhle out performed his FIP each season (like he usually does). So, it is not that simple. Javy, for several different organizations, has had a ERA higher than his FIP and a .36 career difference between the two is pretty significant. Over a large sample size, ERA is more predictive. We’ve reached that sample size with him.

By: Dan

Dan — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 00:29:45 +0000

NL to AL is important but has anyone done any work on AL-east vs. the world? You hear it discussed as the most difficult division to play/succeed in but is it in the numbers? Does this potentially suggest worse numbers for Vazquez?
Does the Penny/Smoltz experiment add any credence when they arguably had better numbers back in the NL – in the same year!
I’d be curious to see a historical analysis…